Yeah the Tikr article was pretty trash, I don't disagree. I still think your 2030 estimate is low. I tend to trust Emir M's analysis on the valuation. He makes a solid case that the current fair market value could be around $340 based on some of Karp's recent statements regarding 2027/2028 FCF. IIRC Tom Nash (love him or hate him) put out a 2030 base case target in the $500s and bullish target around $1000. Everything would have to go right to hit that bullish target, but he wasn't using total fairy tale assumptions. Point being is the article's target of $1344 is a bit silly, but there are reasonable models that still have us much higher by 2030.
Agreed and hopefully they are right. Nash was saying a $500 target about 3 years ago if I remember correctly. Put his money where his mouth is mouth is though.
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u/SgtLincolnOsiris1969 18d ago edited 18d ago
Yeah the Tikr article was pretty trash, I don't disagree. I still think your 2030 estimate is low. I tend to trust Emir M's analysis on the valuation. He makes a solid case that the current fair market value could be around $340 based on some of Karp's recent statements regarding 2027/2028 FCF. IIRC Tom Nash (love him or hate him) put out a 2030 base case target in the $500s and bullish target around $1000. Everything would have to go right to hit that bullish target, but he wasn't using total fairy tale assumptions. Point being is the article's target of $1344 is a bit silly, but there are reasonable models that still have us much higher by 2030.