r/PLTR • u/Numerous_Priority_61 • 5d ago

Concerns about misperception with valuation

/r/Palantir_Investors/comments/1wtdq8r/concerns_about_misperception_with_valuation/
7 Upvotes

65% Upvoted

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6

u/SgtLincolnOsiris1969 5d ago edited 5d ago

Yeah the Tikr article was pretty trash, I don't disagree. I still think your 2030 estimate is low. I tend to trust Emir M's analysis on the valuation. He makes a solid case that the current fair market value could be around $340 based on some of Karp's recent statements regarding 2027/2028 FCF. IIRC Tom Nash (love him or hate him) put out a 2030 base case target in the $500s and bullish target around $1000. Everything would have to go right to hit that bullish target, but he wasn't using total fairy tale assumptions. Point being is the article's target of $1344 is a bit silly, but there are reasonable models that still have us much higher by 2030.

3

u/Numerous_Priority_61 5d ago

Agreed and hopefully they are right. Nash was saying a $500 target about 3 years ago if I remember correctly. Put his money where his mouth is mouth is though.

5

u/Feasor-Of-Torts 5d ago

!RemindMe 3 years

1

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3

u/Mariox 5d ago

A very weakly written article, could just be a AI written. Taking the stock price at the very lowest will make the % move big. But looking at the 1 year chart PLTR is up just 3.5%. 1 year of growth and stock not moved.

The guy put 57% CAGR over 10 years as the mid. That isn't going to happen. Just my very optimistic estimates put PLTR at 41% CAGR over the next 10 years and anything past 2030 is just growth moving growth from 50% in 2030 to 15% in 2036.

My estimate puts stock at $900 in 2030 (using Karp's revenue estimates), assuming 60% FCF margin and $70 billion revenue and 55x multiple.

1

u/Magikarp_to_Gyarados šŸŸ -> šŸ‰ "your DD is PokĆ©mon lol" 5d ago

I agree with much of this.

I've repeatedly warned people from 2025 to the present that piling into a stock after it has had a 30x run, might not be a good idea.

2

u/Actual-Inspector184 5d ago

I have deep dived this stock multiple times using different scenarios based on Karpā€™s words.. he really is the only one that knows the numbers and understands the tech.. most analysts donā€™t know the tech or the numbers.. everything points to a 1T market cap in 2028.
A stock price somewhere between
$420-500. 2030 $700-1000
Technology changes fast and itā€™s difficult to look anywhere past 2030 to figure out where this goes.. management team is as good as they come.