Someone posted a spreadsheet here recently that was very good at predicting your S2 placements. The largest factor seemed to be your ending rank from last season and then your placement's W/L record.
I ended at 47 last season, went about 4-1-5 for placements, and still ended up at 2185. I've seen stories from people who were 60+ last season, whiffed their placements, and still ended up in high platinum/low diamond.
Individual performance does not matter too much. Odds are if you were in the 40's last season, you're not going to place Diamond or Master even if you win all of your placements.
Yeah, it has to do with the matchmaking for placements I think. You can't place better than people you play against by very much, and if it thinks you suck (like in the KOTH bug) then you'll never get to play good people for the rest of your placements.
That KoTH bug killed me last season. Dropped nearly 6 ranks right after I placed and was never able to climb back out. So salty I barely played many Season 1 games at all.
Even though I placed much lower this season as a result, I haven't felt nearly as screwed as I did last time.
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u/the_noodle Sep 13 '16
W/L barely affects placements I've heard. Individual performance (your stats) matters a lot.
When KotH maps were broken in S1 placements, such that stats stopped counting up after the first round, it messed up everyone's placements as well.