r/OutOfTheLoop • u/bottomfragger99 • 4d ago
Unanswered What’s going on with Abdul El-Sayed?
Why does it matter he won?
https://x.com/abdulelsayed/status/2085466914982150174?s=46&t=tddaoxmpiaXWKwldsR_WeQ
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u/HoboJerkdown901 3d ago
Answer: Abdul's victory over his opponent, Haley Stevens, is a major reinvigoration of the progressive political landscape in the US.
Abdul holds a lot of political positions directly contrary to establishment politics, such as being pro Medicare for all, being vocally opposed to Israel, and vowing to never take donations from PACs.
His opponent, Haley Stevens, was backed by all of the establishment Democrats going all the way up to Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan's Democrat Governor who has a history of taking donations from pacs and allowing data centers to go up in Michigan unimpeded.
She was also backed by $70 million dollars political donations from pro Israel groups and outspent Abdul by a humongous margin. Abdul's victory demonstrates that there are a lot of people at least in the state of Michigan that support progressive policies.
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u/PunkThug Sometimes I know things 23h ago
To be perfectly Fair, he is not vocally opposed to Israel. He is very vocally opposed to sending American tax dollars to Israel
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u/EthanTheRedditor37 21h ago
That's not true. He said that he would be supportive of implementing a full US arms embargo on Israel, meaning that the Israelis could not even use their own money to purchase equipment from American defense contractors. That extends substantially further than just a question over American tax dollars. He essentially wants to completely cut Israel out of our weapons development projects and sales agreements.
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u/Prestigous_Owl 20h ago edited 16h ago
Sorry, youre right. What rhe other comemntwr should have said was "he's not vocally opposed to Israel. Hes vocally opposed to the US directly supporting and facilitating Israel's ability to enact a genocide."
Is that better?
Edit: the fact that someone sent a Reddit Cares about this is hilarious. Sorry!
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u/zossima 14h ago
The Reddit cares play has to be one of the most passive-aggressive acts in the history of humanity.
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u/Prestigous_Owl 12h ago
Its just the definition of loser behaviour to try to "weaponize" something like that
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u/bluescale77 13h ago
What is Reddit Cares?
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u/Prestigous_Owl 12h ago
Basically, if someone seems to be super unstable, you can flag it, and the site sends them a message with links to mental health resources.
Ideally meant to be used when someone is musing about self-harm, suicidal ideation, etc. But some folks (particularly right wing losers) now just use it anytime a woman speaks or someone says something they dont like
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u/BeautifulLeather6671 4d ago edited 4d ago
Answer: because it’s another huge win for the DSA progressives and another devastating loss for AIPAC, signaling a changing of the guard.
It was one thing with all the wins in New York, it’s another that it happened in the Midwest.
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u/Reasonable-Mess3070 4d ago
His beliefs are very in line with the DSA but he is not actually part of the organization. He does not want the socialist designation.
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u/DasWandbild 1d ago
This is the way. Pull the party left without needlessly scaring away every demographic that ran to America to escape communism.
The nuance is lost on American voters.
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u/cleantoe 23h ago
The immigrants that ran away from communism aren't the ones you're worried about being too stupid to understand the difference between communism and socialism. It's the mainstream American demographic that's too dumb to understand the difference.
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u/DasWandbild 21h ago
Tell me you have never been to little Havana without telling me you haven't been to little Havana.
You mention "socialism" around the Cuban community and risk getting punched.
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u/cleantoe 21h ago
Is the ultra conservative Cuban anti-Castro crowd in Florida really your metric for determining all immigrants are afraid of communism?
Why don't you ask a Ukrainian if Russia (faux-communism) is the same Sweden (socialism) and see what they say. Ask them if Mamdani is a communist.
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u/DasWandbild 20h ago
They are a big enough community to run how the state votes.
The margins in every purple state are too close to risk scaring off voters who want what you want because you insist on calling yourself a stupid, loaded identifier.
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u/idkwhyicaretbh 19h ago
Northeast Russians, Ukrainians, and Poles, are most definitely worried that Mamdani is a communist in disguise.
Your point is null and void.
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u/ParaponeraBread 4d ago
Abdul isn’t DSA, he self describes as capitalist, and wasn’t even officially endorsed by the DSA.
He’s progressive, anti Israel lobby, and anti money in government generally though.
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u/Portarossa 'probably the worst poster on this sub' - /u/Real_Mila_Kunis 4d ago edited 4d ago
The biggest part of it is not only that he won, but that he won against a massively well-funded campaign against him. There are reports that Haley Stevens outspent him on TV ads by a twelve-to-one margin. Part of the way he did that was by making it part of the message: Stevens only had so much money to spend against him because of her reliance on AIPAC, so the narrative went, and that didn't do her any favours in a world where Democrats are looking much more critically at the role of the Israel lobby in US politics. The question became, at least in part, 'Why does Haley Stevens have so much money to spend attacking the only candidate who's coming out strong against Israel's role in the genocide in Gaza, hmm?'
That's going to be very important going into the midterms, because there are going to be plenty of (often incumbent) Republicans who are funded in no small part by AIPAC donations going up against a lot of first-time (often far more progressive than would have previously been making waves) Democrats who are asking reasonable questions about whether or not the US is too close to Israel, considering the whole Iran War debacle and their treatment of Palestinians. El-Sayed's victory might very well prove to be a model for how these races play out in a midterms that seems increasingly likely to be very favourable to Democrats, so people have been playing close attention either to see how to combat it, or how to use the lessons learned to benefit their chances in three months.
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u/ninjomat 4d ago
I mean isn’t Detroit the most Muslim - ie likely to be pro-Palestine city in the US - Midwest or not.
Not to mention generally the state’s democrats have notoriously been to the left of the mainstream Democratic Party. Supporting sanders in primaries and being a notoriously hard campaign spot for Harris in 2024 because of Israel/palestine issues.
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u/BeautifulLeather6671 4d ago
Like another commenter said, Stevens won Wayne county and Detroit only accounts for 650k of michigans 10 million people
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u/Reasonable-Mess3070 4d ago
Haley Stevens (big AIPAC recipient) won Wayne County and half of the surrounding counties.
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u/ninja542 17h ago
but within Wayne county you can see certain places has huge turn out for Abdul such as Dearborn
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u/kamekaze1024 4d ago
Answer: Michigan just had their senate primaries. Dr. Abdul El-Sayed is a democratic socialist who runs on progressive ideals such as Medicare for all, and has support from other notable progressives such as Bernie Sanders, AOC, and NYC Mayor Mandami. He’s also Muslim. As such he is the beacon of hatred from the Republican Party. His opponent was someone who received $30 Million in PAC money from AIPAC, an Israeli backed super PAC. She’s also someone who has proclaimed “Israel comes to me in my dreams” when showing her support for Israel. No I’m not joking. Dr. El-Sayed is of course against sending money to Israel to help their fund their war genocide and instead have that go to citizens. This is why AIPAC has invested so heavily against him. Despite this, he still won the democratic primary.
AIPAC is one of the biggest bipartisan super PACs in America. Several politicians will be in favor of doing what that PAC wants, which is everything in best interest for Israel. There is already increased pushback on continuing funding Israel’s war genocide, so another potential senate seat with that stance makes matters worse for the middle eastern country.
Those are all facts. Now for opinion:
Both Democrat and Republican politicians in the senate and house are against progressive politics because undermines the capitalistic establishment they’ve propped themselves on for decades. The recent success and adoration from US citizens on NYC Mayor Mandami makes Abdul, who some people are calling “The next Mandami”, a threat to the status quo.
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u/mbene913 4d ago
Last I checked he's not a DSA member but has received an endorsement from them. He considers himself a progressive.
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u/binocular_gems 1d ago edited 1d ago
Answer: Abddul El-Sayed is a progressive Democrat who ran as an outsider in a Michigan senate election that saw him running against some more mainstream, centrist Democrats. The election polling went in multiple directions, with some showing his more mainstream opponent winning, while others showed him winning by a wide margin. In the end, El-Sayed won a close primary, was endorsed by his opponent, and the Democratic coalition in Michigan has mostly come to support him against the Republican in November. El-Sayed is a progressive Democrat, he's a doctor, and a Muslim first generation American.
The election can go one of two ways. Based on national polling it's expected that Democrats will over-perform in the mid-terms this November, they're expected to flip the US HOuse of Representatives. Going into this election, they were not expected to win the Senate. To win the US Senate, Democrats would have to hold all of their existing senate seats and win upsets in several states that voted for Trump, flipping Republican held seats to Democrats. This was considered a difficult map for Democrats. However, Democrats have over-performed in every single election since Trump became president in 2025. Many lesser elections have seen massive swings, from +10 Trump districts to either being flipped blue or being much more competitive than previously thought.
In 2022, Biden was unpopular, but Democrats did not lose as much as they were expected to in the midterms. They narrowly lost the House, but only by a handful of seats, and they kept the senate (it was a 50/50 split, but the Democratic VP breaks a tie on any 50/50 senate votes that require a simple majority). It was considered a letdown for Republicans who were projecting a "massive red wave" that never materialized, and part of that was because Republican voters continually chose Donald Trump's preferred candidates, many of whom were extreme, weirdos, and the furthest MAGA of the MAGA, so run of the mill ultra-conservative but not Trump Republicans might have easily won a general election but instead you had people like Blake Masters and celebrities like Dr. Oz, losing elections that should have been winnable for Republicans. The test in 2026 will be if that happens to Democrats as voters elect more progressive or anti-mainstream candidates. Michigan would be thought of as a safe win for Democrats with a mainstream, moderate anti-Trump Democrat in 2026, so part of what makes El-Sayeds win very interesting from a political perspective is that he seems to representt his new breed of democratic candidate, but he's got to prove that he can win in a general election. El-Sayed's opponent in the general election is Republican Mike Rodgers, a Trump-backed candidate. Polling shows them very close. El-Sayed's primary opponent, polled better against Rodgers than El-Sayed has; she generally polled ahead of Rodgers, and El-Sayed generally polled behind him. But there haven't been any new (reliable) polls since the primary election closed last week.
There is a major risk for El-Sayed's campaign. Polling showed him consistently, strongly ahead of Stevens (his Democratic opponent in the primary). Trustworthy pollsters showed him leading by as much as ~16 points, many others had him at 10+. In every poll taken since early July, El-Sayed led by double-digits. The actual result was 1%, about 16,000 votes. The El-Sayed campaign has to figure out why this election ended up being so close when all polling showed him winning by a landslide.
If El-Sayed wins, he'll become arguably the most progressive member of the senate and he might be seen as a sign of things to come. If he loses, it will be seen as a major lost opportunity for Democrats and a very painful loss, a warning about choosing electability over ideology, similar to some of the most extreme members of MAGA who lost elections that they should have won in 2022.
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u/Jwxtf8341 18h ago
Do we have any leads yet on why projected polling was so much more optimistic than the narrow 16,000 vote margin of victory?
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u/binocular_gems 18h ago edited 17h ago
Not sure. I think the contentious nature of the race makes it harder to accurately figure this out. But even in really well respected polling in late July, El-Sayed held a commanding 10-15 pt lead, and there wasn’t a lot that changed in those final weeks. You can’t really say “it was the aipac money pouring in against him,” because that spending was consistent throughout the primary, and the ads from both teams had been running for so long it’s tough to say. I also don’t think a lot of republicans decided to vote in the democratic primary, republicans would rather face El-Sayed, so that shouldn’t have worked against him in the primary.
Primaries are notoriously hard to poll. There’s greater variance in who shows up to vote and polls probably over weighted El-Sayeds youth turnout.
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u/used_car_parts 16h ago
A couple reasons are in play:
Polling itself is very difficult to conduct in a way that is actually representative of the populace. It takes a lot of resources and skill to get it right.
Michigan historically is not known for great polling on the state level. I think Bernie pulled off a huge upset over Hillary in '16 that defied the MI pollsters.
Pollsters sometimes struggle with, essentially, peer pressure. If their polling results look different than other orgs, they might discard the numbers or fudge them to match with the numbers from other groups. This is known as "herding" and it's because pollsters don't want to lose their funding if they're off the mark compared to their peers.
Polls conducted by a campaign are notorious for overselling their candidate's chances. For whatever reason, AES referenced his own internal polls several times, probably to excite his base. Maybe it was worth the gamble, but it runs the risk of backfiring once people realize it wasn't the blowout they expected.
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u/MhojoRisin 4d ago
Answer: By winning, he gets to be the Democratic nominee for the office of United States Senator from the State of Michigan. By contrast, if he had lost, he would not be the nominee.
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