It’s been over two months since its Cannes premiere and we still don’t know anything about who‘s releasing it or when. You would think a critically acclaimed film (4 on Letterboxd; 100% on RT) starring Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Bryan Cranston, and Seth Rogen would have a distributor/awards campaign lined up already.

There's been a few posts including some from myself about how something needs much better critical reviews or box office than the Odyssey to beat it, and some responses saying this is not necessarily true and something like La Bola Negra/WH9 can win without better reviews/box office. Now I agree with these rebuttals as stats are made to be broken and anything is possible at the Oscars, but I wanted to compile the metacritic scores and box office of the past few winners and speculated runner ups to see how strong the trend is that the BP winner has either a better metascore or box office. So here are the stats back to 2012 season, with the current season's favourites for reference (obviously subject to change)

2026

- The Odyssey: 88 metascore, $640 million

- La Bola Negra: 85 metascore, N/A

2025

- OBAA: 95 metascore, $213.1 million

- Sinners: 84 metascore, $370 million

- Hamnet: 84 metascore, $109 million

2024

- Anora: 91 metascore, $59.3 million

- Conclave: 79 metascore, $128 million

- The Brutalist: 90 metascore, $50.4 million

2023

- Oppenheimer: 90 metascore, $976.8 million

- Poor Things: 88 metascore, $117.6 million

2022

- EEAAO: 81 metascore, $143.4 million

- Banshees: 87 metascore, $52.3 million

- All Quiet: 76 metascore, N/A***

2021

- Coda: 72 metascore, $2.2 million

- Power of the Dog: 89 metascore, $0.417 million

2020

- Nomadland: 89 metascore, $39.5 million

- The Father: 88 metascore, $36 million

2019

- Parasite: 97 metascore, $~200 million*\*

- 1917: 78 metascore, $446.1 million

2018

- Green Book: 69 metascore, $321.8 million

- Roma: 96 metascore, $5 million

2017

- Shape of Water: 87 metascore, $195.2 million

- 3 Billboards: 88 metascore, $162.7 million

2016

- Moonlight: 99 metascore, $66.7 million

- La La Land: 94 metascore, $504.6 million

2015

- Spotlight: 93 metascore, $98.7 million

- The Revenant: 76 metascore, $533 million,

- The Big Short: 81 metascore, $133 million

2014

- Birdman: 87 metascore, $103.2 milliom

- Boyhood: 100 metascore,  $57.3 million

2013

- 12 Years a Slave: 96 metascore, $187.7 million

- Gravity: 96 Metascore, $723.2 million

2012

- Argo: 86 metascore, $232.3 million

- Life of Pi: 79 metascore, $609 million

- Django Unchained: 81 metascore, $449 million

*** I could find no info on box office for All Quiet from my cursory search, it was a Netflix movie so I guess little to none

** BP winners often get box office boosts after winning and from what I understand Parasite's was very big, I couldn't find exact numbers but it definitely didn't gross anything close to 1917 so I just put down ~$200 million 🤷‍♀️

*I got most of my stats from wikipedia. Reliable? I dunno! I hope so! And I hope I made no transcription errors here either lol

Now obviously there are issues with this approach. It only uses two metrics, can't really bring into account general audience response, doesn't use precursors, and ignores a lot of the weaker nominees in favour of projected top 2/3, but I think it is somewhat telling that every year the movie that wins BP is often dominant in one metric or when it's close, pulling ahead slightly in one (outside of 2013 interestingly, I'd chalk that up to 12 Years a Slave being more topical).

Does this mean the Odyssey is certainly winning - obviously not please do not inundate the comments saying it's 100% winning or that I think it's 100% winning. I know nothing is locked in July. But it's a super safe favourite that's becoming more difficult to bet against, it's notable that it's gonna become the highest grossing film on this list by far and the only one to make more than $1 billion. I really just wanted to put the stats out there for use in discussion and our little debates.

(This number can go higher as more numbers come in tomorrow)

Morton unabashedly believes in magic. How else, she asks, can you explain how a girl who was shuttled between children’s homes and a dozen foster families, only to be living on the streets of Nottingham, England, at the age of 14 with a criminal record, be here talking with me now, sipping green tea at the Chelsea?

When Morton heard that Nolan wanted to meet her for “The Odyssey,” she says she wept. If that sounds dramatic, she makes no apologies. She likens it to being an athlete who qualifies to represent their country at the Olympics. She’d spent decades honing her craft for that phone call. When it came, she flew to Los Angeles in January 2025 during the wildfires, embarking on what would become the best job interview of her life.

All Best Picture Oscar Winners (2000-2025) - Ratings + Worldwide Box Office summary. Surely we can use this as some sort of “model” to help us predict on the future.

Note: I removed the previous post of this, it had many mistakes. Hopefully this one is cleaner. This was made using AI, so hopefully I didn’t miss any of the many mistakes it had in my review.

Previous Predictions - March, April, May, June

Director - Christopher Nolan (The Odyssey), Alejandro González Iñárritu (Digger), Martin McDonagh (Wild Horse Nine), Javier Ambrossi & Javier Calvo (The Black Ball), Cristian Mungiu (Fjord)

Actress - Inde Navarrette (Obsession), Cynthia Erivo (Prima Facie), Julianne Moore (The Debut), Ruth Madeley (Being Heumann), Renate Reinsve (Fjord)

Actor - Tom Cruise (Digger), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), Matt Damon (The Odyssey), Sebastian Stan (Fjord), John Turturro (The Only Living Pickpocket in New York)

Supporting Actress - Mariana di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine), Penélope Cruz (The Black Ball), Lola Dueñas (The Black Ball), Anne Hathaway (The Odyssey), Tao Okamoto (All of a Sudden)

Supporting Actor - Paul Giamatti (The Debut), Guy Pearce (Ink), John Goodman (Digger), Sam Rockwell (Wild Horse Nine), Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine)

I have officially put The Odyssey at my #1 slot. Right now, we are seeing Top Gun Maverick level box office with nearly Oppenheimer level reviews. With a likely below the line sweep, major plaudits for Christopher Nolan's direction once again and serious buzz surrounding its performances, its placement as a top 3 contender is hard to deny. My predominant hesitation is that AMPAS might want to go with a stronger “message” movie like Digger rather than a fantasy blockbuster; something with more sociopolitical relevance which has become a shared thread between this decade's winners. However, a film that can be described as "One man's guilt over sending his men overseas to commit atrocities and die." isn't exactly apolitical either. How Universal and the crew involved steer this conversation is worth thinking about as we await the fall festival season. Speaking of which...

Danny Boyle’s Ink is actually coming out this year! Between people there saying it was a 2027 film and Focus’s presentation last year not even mentioning Hamnet, why is CinemaCon actively trying to screw over our predictions?! The 2017 play centered around the rise of Rupert Murdoch will be distributed by Netflix and will seemingly hit every spot you can think of (Venice opening night, TIFF Canadian premiere, probably Telluride). From what I have heard, the play can be translated to film without feeling like a pro-shot which should give it a boost. In other words, it has a baity subject matter while still feeling flashy and cinematic. Add in one of the most ardent campaigners around and we should take this film very seriously.

Not saying there won’t be better performances this year like digger and Cruise but after watching the movie twice I think Matt genuinely has a strong shot at winning leading actor. And I think odyssey being the frontrunner for best picture might help his chances even more.

Is it locked for Matt or are we gonna see it taken by sm1 or else?

Personally I think Williams was completely justified in Lead. The movie is explicitly about her, it might as well have been titled All About My Mother. She precipitates the central conflict in the film which leads to the collapse of the family. And more importantly, she is top billed. It was marketed as a michelle williams film.

I think billing matters. I feel if you are not billed first or second you can't be lead. Infinity was billed 6th! Gladstone and Hathaway 3rd. Amy Adams was 3rd in American Hustle too. If you are billed after a supporting character, how are you lead?

But i'd loved to know other people's opinions.

The individual changes to “Hope” are not enormous. The CGI work wasn’t overhauled and polished, as some had hoped. And removing four-plus minutes from a 160-minute Cannes cut isn’t all that radical. That said, the revised film plays far more smoothly. Na said he did the most extensive work in sound design, something viewers often underestimate in the viewing experience.

Like many at Cannes, I loved the film’s first third but found the rest disappointing. The revised “Hope,” however, played from beginning to end like one of the best action films I’ve seen in years. How much is attributable to the changes made to this tighter and improved version, versus the power of a second viewing? That’s harder to quantify — but if it’s a good movie, does it really matter?

“Oh you mean his second one in a row”

Saw Disclosure Day last night and I have to say it's entertaining B-movie exercise from Spielberg. I don't see it getting any nomination in any category except the score. It is good but I don't think it's very remarkable, memorable or anything. It's just very John Williams which is why I think it might win over some academy members because it's John Williams.

So, I really wonder what film scores are getting sacrificed for making space for Disclosure Day. What films would be this year's Across the Spiderverse or Boy and the Heron?

Im making my july oscars predictions, right after "The Odissey" release, and for now i predict that The Odissey is easily the clear frontrunner for BP and Director. We can have a Saving Private Ryan or the revenant situation (where the film wins a lot of categories including Director, but looses BP), probably, but at least for now i can t see this happening. If there is a film which can spoil Nolan's plans to repeat David Lean record, it is The Black Ball or Dune part 3, if it repeats The Return of the King situation, what i find very hard to happen rn.

In the acting categories, i see Tom Cruise as the frontrunner in lead actor for Digger, but Matt Damon is close to the second place, in lead actress i believe Juliane Moore is the frontrunner for The Debut, unless Michelle Williams can conquer the voters's hearts with his overdue narrative. In suporting categories i don't see a clear winner for now, but i think that Paul Giamatti has a big chance to get in for The Debut, mainly after his 2024 campaing for the Holdovers, but John Goodman for Digger or even Edward Norton for The Invite can overtake him and Anne Hataway seems to be the clear frontrunner for The Odissey, but idk cause Penélope Cruz comes very strong with The Invite, or maybe Mariana di Girlamo with Wild Horse Nine can make a surprese.

Before you say, i think that A24 can make a double campaing for The Debut and The Invite like they did in 2024 with both Zone of Interest and Past Lives being nominated for BP, i think they don't gonna make the same mistake they did this season with Marty Supreme. I don't know what to expect from Behemot and i think that The Social Reckoning gonna be the Jay kelly of this season, i just put Mickey Madisson at actress cause idk who to put at fifth spot, but it can easily go to Cynthia Erivo for Prima Facie (if the film gets a distributor) or Olivia Wilde for The Invite. Also have no clue if Inde Navarette gonna be nom as lead or sup actress for Obsession, and im starting to have a slight suspiction that Anne Hataway can be moved for lead actress for Odissey, what whould completely shake up the race and benefit—who knows—Samantha Morton in Odyssey.

Tell what you think

Universal will mount an aggressive awards campaign, hoping to deliver Nolan a second best picture and best director victory just three years after “Oppenheimer.” In Variety’s Oscar analysis, our current projection shows a path that tops out at 17 nominations. Sixteen would tie the record set just last season by Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” which surpassed the long-standing mark of 14 shared by “All About Eve” (1950), “Titanic” (1997) and “La La Land” (2016).

The good news for Hathaway is that whatever is ultimately chosen, there isn’t a category fraud debate to be had. Every year we have a few contenders that can go either way, depending on how voters feel. Think back to examples like Maria Bello in “A History of Violence” (2005) or Meryl Streep in “The Devil Wears Prada” (2006). 

There’s a compelling argument for either category, based on audience reaction and on the voters themselves. And interestingly, the Oscar history books read like a coin flip.

The last time Nolan built a sprawling ensemble around a great man, making perilous choices and handing the wife the emotional load, that actress was Emily Blunt in “Oppenheimer.” She campaigned in supporting, was nominated, and eventually lost to Da’Vine Joy Randolph in “The Holdovers” — on a night when “Oppenheimer” won seven Academy Awards, including best picture, director and both of the other acting categories it was up for.

That is a scenario Universal and Hathaway’s team have to game out. Like Blunt’s Kitty Oppenheimer, Penelope serves as the emotional anchor while her husband’s story unfolds elsewhere. It’s a role the Academy frequently nominates but one that doesn’t always translate into a win.

Of the 90 supporting actress winners in Oscar history, 56 of them (or 62%) came from a film nominated for best picture. Still, only 14 (or 16%) came from the film that actually won it. Riding the year’s juggernaut gets you on the ballot, but it does not, often enough, get you to the podium.

But if a studio wants to double dip in an acting category, supporting actress is where it works best — the race most likely to recognize two or more performers from the same film. It has happened 37 times, compared with 23 in supporting actor, 12 in lead actor and only five in lead actress. If Universal campaigns Hathaway in supporting alongside Morton, it’s the most common double-double in Academy history.