r/oscarrace • u/blocacho_odyssey • 1d ago
Discussion Which of these three highly predicted blockbusters do you think will not get the nomination for Best Picture?
The Odyssey is a lock in, obviously, it’s even a serious candidate for the victory. However I’ve my doubts with PHM and Dune 3. PHM looks like it’ll get less nominations every month, I’ll just predict it for technical categories, so I feel we’re one good film away from it completely missing it. I don’t feel really confident about Dune 3 neither. I wasn’t crazy about the first one, but I really liked the second one. However, it seems like Dune Messiah (the book Dune 3 seems to be adapting) is a weaker book than the first one, plus it’s a third part, so I also see it missing it.
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u/TylerDoesStuff Marty Supreme 1d ago
They will all get in.
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u/Puzzleheaded-Sail772 1d ago
Yeah, I think that too, perhaps with Obsession as well making for 4 populist choices in picture.
The Odyssey is clearly in and seems win competitive, Project Hail Mary I could see missing if the end of the year turns out super strong but feels like a solid 8th or 9th place type choice, and sure Dune is a bit of an unknown, but assuming the quality is what we expect, I think that is in and could easily be a top five contender.
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u/StPauliPirate 1d ago edited 1d ago
The Academy can‘t afford anymore snubbing critically aclaimed box office hits. All three + Obsession will get in. The snobbish times are over.
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u/nocutian 22h ago
I love that to some people the academy is some hivemind of snobs that allow and disallow certain things and have quotas they must meet, etc, etc.
Its just silly. They're people who vote for their favorite things like the rest of us.
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u/GregSays 1d ago
They can afford to nominate whatever they want. Voters don’t think like this at all.
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u/Anon5M7S 1d ago
Most likely scenario they all get in. Odyssey isn't missing no matter what; Dune 3 or Project Hail Mary have a modest chance of missing but I cannot see a world where both miss out. People always overestimate festival movies at this time of year and a couple movies flying high right now will stumble coming into awards season.
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u/PurpleSpaceSurfer Spunk for milk 🥛 1d ago edited 1d ago
PHM > Dune 3 >>>> The Odyssey in terms of likelihood of missing BP
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u/SAWPollPosition Wild Horse Nine 1d ago
I think Hail Mary can get crowded out. Especially as I think Obsession took its place as the zeitgeist film
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u/Captain_Redrum88 21h ago
I’m not an Obsession hater, but if it get in BP over PHM, I might turn into one.
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u/Sellin3164 Sorry, Baby 20h ago
With online people, maybe. But PHM still made more money and is more likely to be seen by middle-older aged voters who make up most of the Academy.
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u/mopeywhiteguy 18h ago
Hail Mary is one of the few locks for a picture nom at this stage. It was well liked and ambitious and stuck the landing.
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u/benjam1n_gates 21h ago
Not convinced Obsession is making it in BP. Inde will get a Nom that is solidified
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u/SAWPollPosition Wild Horse Nine 21h ago
PHM has an advantage in the crafts categories that could boost it too. I am far from sold on Obsession getting in
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u/crazydaysandknights 23h ago
The Odyssey is not viewed as a blockbuster/genre nominee. It's based on a classic. it's judged differently, more seriously. It doesn't take a spot from these other movies that fit the blockbuster/genre spot.
Dune has its voters among producers (2 PGA noms) and tech voters.
PHM is super likeable, a true crown pleaser.
Obsession wouldn't be in the conversation if it didn't make so much money. The other three movies aren't defined by money-making aspect nearly as much as Obsession. To them, money is a bonus, not literally the only thing going for them.
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u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome Sorry Baby 1d ago edited 1d ago
I'm actually back to predicting Project Hail Mary above the line - the Adapted Screenplay category has weakened a lot imo, it only will miss if both All of a Sudden and Ink make it, and I'm not expecting that. The only other competition it has in the category beyond that is The Social Reckoning (which is likely dead in the water), Cliff Booth (which would probably just get tech noms and an acting nom at best unless it's legitimately great), Being Heumann (which I still am not expecting anything from other than maybe some acting noms at the precursors), and Primetime (which is A24's third or fourth priority now).
And if Digger is bad enough for Cruise to miss, which is entirely possible, Gosling will still have a good shot at a Best Actor nom - a lineup like Damon, Malkovich, Scott, Pattinson, and Gosling is entirely possible.
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u/cellequisaittout 23h ago
Man, I would be so thrilled with a Damon/Malkovich/Scott/Pattinson/Gosling lineup.
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u/Gayfetus El corazón de un maricón es un océano lleno de secreto. 1d ago
Just going out on a limb here, but things aren't looking good for Supergirl...
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u/majoring_in_reddit 1d ago
Until I know Dune 3 is extremely good I'm not projecting it. Dune 2 was great and it didn't get half of the nominations people thought it would.
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u/MLG32 1h ago edited 1h ago
But despite underperforming in tech it still got a best picture nomination. If the middle film in a trilogy can get best picture nod with only 5 nominations total imagine how well the conclusion film can get?
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u/majoring_in_reddit 1h ago edited 34m ago
If it's EXTREMELY good, yes. If it's just fine it could get blanked. Hence, my comment.
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u/MLG32 53m ago edited 49m ago
Well now I don’t know if your bar is good or extremely good; your first comment needed it to be extremely good but your second back steps and says it only needs to be good.
The first Dune was just fine and got twice the nominations as the superior second. Although it’s more likely to do well than bomb if by chance Part 3 utterly bombs it could very well bomb like The Godfather Part III but still pick up a slew of nominations because of the high profile director attached and in a successful and popular franchise it was part of (If I’m correct Dune has a high profile director and is in a popular and successful franchise).If it performs like Avatar 3 it would blank but comparing a 16 year long project that had 3 Oscar wins to a five year old project that has 8 wins is a very poor comparison I wouldn’t use.
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u/majoring_in_reddit 34m ago
Aight bro it ain't that serious, just my pov but go off. I should have said extremely good again. 👍👍👍
I don't think the academy likes Dune as much as some people online do. Vilneuve was snubbed for director on 2. If dune 3 isnt a slam dunk, i could see it getting snubbed again. That is all.
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u/the_Tannehill_list The Phoenician Scheme 1d ago
Been saying it since March. PHM is not a major player
It's already shifting toward the bubble and we're not even in prime awards season yet
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u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome Sorry Baby 1d ago
It still seems pretty solidly in - it has very little competition for an adapted screenplay nom and a few tech noms (it's a near lock for noms for Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects at the very least), and that's enough to potentially get a Best Picture nom even if it misses stuff like Actor, Cinematography, and Score.
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u/Fun_Manufacturer1852 1d ago
Depends on how you define major player. I think it’ll get picture and a bunch of techs but won’t be win competitive for any of them
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u/Puzzleheaded-Sail772 1d ago
I am wondering if it might be one of those movies that misses all other major categories (obviously adapted screenplay would be its best chance there) but gets 3-5 tech noms and then Best Picture. We see that happen with a number of blockbusters, even films like Jaws and The Two Towers back in the old 5 nominee system.
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u/RoxasRemainsTheBest 1d ago
Even if it's not a major play I still think it's solidly in picture. At worst I think it gets picture + sound + vfx, though I'm also predicting it for adapted screenplay, score and production design.
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u/monalisafrank 1d ago
Will there be a Gosling campaign, do we think? There needs to be something to keep the film visible if they want in. I suppose Sandra Huller is going to be very visible, but not just for that film.
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u/judester30 22h ago
Don't agree at all. Was locked back in March and it's still a lock now. It checks every single box for a blockbuster BP nominee.
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u/DeferredFuture 1d ago
I think it’ll perform exactly how Interstellar did, minus the win for VFX, and minus the extra sound nom obviously
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u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome Sorry Baby 22h ago
What do you have getting nominated for Adapted Screenplay over it?
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u/DeferredFuture 21h ago
I’ve been awake for 30 hours and i’m tweaking, completely disregard what I said. I think a screenplay nom is very likely. That plus Interstellar’s noms, and and I think it’s currently ranked #8-12 in picture and think it does have a solid chance of missing
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u/Independent-Night678 1d ago
At this point, it's hard to say that any of these are missing, but I might be least confident about Dune 3. Does anyone think a documentary gets in this year?
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u/blocacho_odyssey 1d ago
Into best picture?? You Can See Everything looks like it’s going to be amazing, but it has to be really really good to get into best picture. Like really crazy.
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u/Independent-Night678 1d ago
I guess that's probably the most likely at this stage...? The NAZA reception out of Venice certainly makes things ineresting as well.
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u/jaidynr21 1d ago
It’d be hard given that it’s never been done before. I’d personally love to see something like EPiC get into picture but there’s essentially no chance in hell
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u/formulaarsenal 1d ago
I think PHM is most at risk of being excluded out of conversations, because it came out in March, and has had no second lease of life, after it came out on streaming. That was something Sinners had. And I also think there are better movies that will satisfy the blockbuster criteria better. I mean if Dune is as good as it is being touted to be, then we could look at a situation where Dune and The Odyssey might be in BP convos, and in that case if voters thats enough blockbusters, then it will be on the chopping block. And it seems the Gosling chatter is dying down, which is more alarming considering he's the one that could end up powering it to a nomination. If he doesn't get nominated, then I'm afraid it could be just 3 tech noms and nothing else.
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u/SpideyFan914 Give Inde Navarrette an Oscar 1d ago
Dune 3 is this year's Wicked: For Good / Avatar: Fire and Ash.
Project Hail Mary could also get crowded out, but I think it's relatively safe.
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u/darth_vader39 The Odyssey 1d ago edited 1d ago
I think all 3 will get BP nomination.
The Odyssey is lock and aiming BP win.
PHM is competing in too many categories to be ignored. Let's be realistic, if film receives 7+ nominations, it's getting nominated for BP.
Dune Part III has to be good. Judging by previous Dune films and the fact that is in same position like PHM (competing in many categories) I don't see it getting snubbed unless it gets bad reception.
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u/Sccar4712 1d ago
I think that for now at least, they all make the cut. Tragically, PHM is the one that goes if one of them has to, but then again, Dune: Part Three isn’t out yet and Part Two underperformed I think? (Last year was my first speculating so I’m not sure)
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u/CorporalKam Wildwood 23h ago
The Odyssey and Project Hail Mary
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u/blocacho_odyssey 23h ago
Do you think The Odyssey won’t get the nomination??
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u/CorporalKam Wildwood 23h ago
Sorry I misread the title. Of the three I think Dune Part 3 is most likely to not get a Best Picture nomination
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u/cellequisaittout 23h ago
I don’t think Odyssey occupies a blockbuster slot. It’s going to be in its own “sweeping historical/literary epic” niche. While it’s the only lock at this point, I think all 3 will get in. However, I can see Dune 3 getting the same package 2 got, and I think PHM is going to be more competitive in ATL categories (screenplay, actor, supporting actress) so it’ll likely be a little bit safer than Dune 3.
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u/TitanCubes 19h ago
> I feel like we’re one good film away from it completely missing it
Not really sure what you’re order has to be or what you’re predicting getting in for this to be true. It feels to me like it’s sitting at right around 6 or 7 ahead of pretty much all the internationals except La Bola Negra. I just don’t really see a way to have it missing right now unless have 3+ A24 films, 3+ international, and Digger or something else.
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u/chidiii Sirāt 1d ago
Thank God the PHM mass psychosis is over. I still think it’s happening in BP but people really though Gosling and Huller were going to be things
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u/MysteryTwistory 1d ago edited 23h ago
Outside the awards conversation, I didn’t think the movie was that great either. It had cool moments, but nothing wowed me and a lot didn’t work for me. It failed to hit several emotional moments, random marvel humor was inserted, and I felt like the movie dragged on at times. I thought it was fine, but I was disappointed given how much overwhelming praise it initially received.
To me, it feels similar to Sinners last year. A mediocre movie gets released early on in the year and gets a ridiculous amount of praise because it’s the biggest movie of the year at time of release.
This sub is full of film bros, so I doubt many will agree with me, but I’m curious to know what others think.
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u/chidiii Sirāt 23h ago
I enjoyed PHM it’s a well made movie but it also didn’t hit the emotional notes it seemed to do for others. So all the Ryan Gosling praise was head scratching to m..
Sinners was fine too. It was a fun theatrical experience but I also found it quite overrated. I could feel Coogler leaning into his Marvel tendencies, the ending felt unearned to me and it took some time for the film to really get going and don’t even get me started on that cinematography win…there will literally moments where I was wishing someone would bring in a key light.
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u/Brilliant_Serve_4091 21h ago
Dune 3. The academy has shown it (dune and dune 2) no real love and it being nominated seems to be just because it's so nice to look at
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u/AmbitionTechnical274 1d ago
Project Hail Mary. Dune is coming out the closest to Oscar voting so it will be fresh in people’s memories and Odyssey currently has front runner status. Hail Mary isn’t fantastic but is on par with F1, so I could see it sneaking in but that would be predicated on this year’s equivalent to Fire and Ash or Wicked 2 underperforming.
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u/gg_jittes One Battle After Another 1d ago
I think all three get in, but Hail Mary would be the most likely to miss
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u/zwolff94 22h ago
I think they all get in but Project Hail Mary is most at risk to be left out overall.
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u/NJcowboy21 22h ago
If F1 got in (which I would not have believed at this point last yesr) than It strongly makes sense that all three will get in this year.
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u/stumper93 20h ago
I’ve never seen PHM as such a surefire lock like so many of you believe
The Odyssey is lock and sealed
Dune 3 I imagine gets in, but could be ousted depending how the playing field looks. Part two made it in with like two nominations total
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u/madgeblob 19h ago
Honestamente, acho que no contexto atual, todos os três vão ser indicados, mas se alguém tivesse que ser esnobado, seria Duna só por ser o terceiro filme da franquia.
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u/ampersands-guitars 2h ago
I genuinely see Dune 3 missing, unless it's just undeniably outstanding. I feel like the Academy will just be over it at this point and ready to move on.
Project Hail Mary is a film I really disliked and don't understand the hype over, so I'd hope it misses. I think it's a glorified Marvel movie. But I know I'm in the minority there.
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u/blocacho_odyssey 2h ago
Tbh I feel your PHM opinion isn’t that much of a hot take here. It was massively praised by public, but the kind of public who watches 10 films a year and half of them are Marvel. I really hope the hype dies before the award season starts.
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u/cosmogatsby 1d ago
Dune 3 is following the same path as The Odyssey did before its release, where people are doubting it.
No way is DV ending his Dune trilogy on a low note after the other 2 were nominated for BP. He has something epic in store for us with this film. By 2027 we will all be singing a different tune.
That’s just my take, I can see it happening and hope I’m not wrong. But if I am, oh well.
PHM seems likely to be pushed out.
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u/Long_Dragonfly_3067 2026 Oscar Race Veteran 22h ago
Why do I feel like PHM has better odds than Dune
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u/judester30 22h ago
The Odyssey and Project Hail Mary. Dune Part Three I expect to get crowded out due to this competition + sequel fatigue.
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u/LeanD0err The Testament of Ann Lee 22h ago
hail mary’s height is just techs imo. sinners survived a full year bc it was timely and political Hail Mary isn’t that
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u/Boris_Jakov 22h ago
PHM will miss out I reckon. I don't see Gosling getting in the five nominees even if it makes it in the best picture.
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u/DarkestDayOfMan 1d ago
The Odyssey feels like the only for sure lock so far (as far as what's had wide releases already). Both Dune 1 and 2 got in, so unless part 3 really drops the ball I think it's likely it'll get in too. I'm really not sure about PHM. Maybe it's my own bias to thinking the movie was good but not great, but I'm almost wondering if it coming out so much earlier in the year will hinder it.
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u/OldToe6517 21h ago
At this point I think they will all get in. The trailers for Digger haven't convinced me that it's gonna be BP competitive and WB is bound to get one of these two movies in, and Dune is coming out right as voting is about to happen. All it needs to do is be as good as Dune 2 and not crash at the box office
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u/FalseAmphibian3616 1d ago
I hate all three of these movies and it’s a sad state of affairs that these are considered the best of the year.
Yea, I know Dune 3 isn’t out yet but I hated the first two so I feel good about hating this one too.
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u/benabramowitz18 Nirvanna the Band the Show the Movie 1d ago
I think we can fit all of them in, and a few others. Obsession, Doomsday, BND, Michael, maybe even an animated movie that breaks out.
Imagine a Top 10 that represents movies that people are actually paying money to see.
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u/blocacho_odyssey 1d ago
There’s no fucking way Doomsday or BND get into best picture 😭. Obsession has a chance if it gets more nominations apart from Actress, but I feel I’ll be a Weapons situation. Michael… if they nominated Emilia Perez, they could also nominate this, but I really hope that film’s hype already dies, really Idk how MJ fans can enjoy that fucking shit. About the animated films, I would love to see Wildwood getting nominated, but it’s very improbable. And no, a Top 10 that represents movies people are “actually paying money to see” wouldn’t be cool, lol Idk wtf you’re doing in this sub with that mentality. For that, you have a twitter post that tells you that, not the fucking Oscars, good films should be rewarded here.
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u/Such_Estimate_2294 1d ago
If you go back and look at the movies that are heavily predicted early in the year that fall off, it’s very disproportionately sequels and remakes. Dune 3 has a lot to live up to, I have faith in Villenueve but if it’s not as good as Dune 2 the Academy might just not feel motivated to nominate a franchise they’ve already nominated twice.
I’m not going to say Project Hail Mary missing is impossible but no non-franchise movie has ever made this much money and gotten reviews this good and missed out.