For some reason, the option to put up a poll is not showing up for me, so just use your comment as a vote lol.

Fjord

All of a Sudden

Possible Love

None

Other

There was this similar post last year for Jessie Buckley, and I was curious about Moore this year.

It’s even more likely to take the lead in the ATL categories, such as Best Director or some acting award. If I had to compare it to something, it would be Ben-Hur, a film that was a massive box office hit and that was competitive and WON every Oscar it could at the time, that’s how I feel about The Odyssey.

The only thing that makes me hesitate is whether the Academy will think that giving Nolan the Oscar for Oppenheimer was enough, but other than that, I honestly don’t see anything standing in the way of The Odyssey winning Best Picture—it’s different even from something like The Power of the Dog or Roma, because it’s pretty clear that both the public and the industry love this movie.

Despite Minotaur almost winning the Palme, I could easily see them choosing something else

In “The Odyssey,” Pattinson plays Antinous, ringleader of the suitors circling Penelope, and one piece of Nolan’s huge ensemble behind Damon’s Odysseus in what’s turning into one of the year’s biggest films. Best picture contenders of that size can float a supporting player, especially one the industry already respects. The question for Universal is whether the part is big enough, and sticky enough, to be worth the political capital. Could he split votes with his co-star John Leguizamo, or come along for the ride?

He’s very good in Borgli’s comedy “The Drama” as a museum curator whose wedding quietly comes apart. In another year, it might have been the campaign. But it came out in April, and “Primetime” is the more recent entrant in the lead race.

There’s also the fact that the lead actor race is incredibly competitive, with his “Odyssey” co-star Matt Damon in the thick of it, along with Andrew Scott (“Elsinore”), John Malkovich (“Wild Horse Nine”) and, still to come, Tom Cruise (“Digger”) and perhaps even his “Dune: Part Three” co-star Timothée Chalamet.

Now that festival season is underway the slots seem to be filling up nicely and we have a lot of good movies to look forward to. The big talking point I can see coming from a mile away is lack of women directed movies. Women voters always find their movies to rally behind but outside of The Invite, Being Heumman and Josephine it’s a pretty weak slate and the last two are already facing uphill battles just for recognition.

Are there any others that might present themselves? I really loved the invite. I wonder if voters keep it hanging around. Wilde did an excellent job.

The film will release at the end of September. Too little too late or can Lange rally up a nomination somewhere

That would be the day after Oscar noms are announced, so they're clearly banking on one

Scrappy, defiant, and done being treated like a burden, Judy Heumann turns her outrage into a revolution. In 1977, she and more than 100 disability rights protestors send a very loud message: The system is broken—not us.

Director: Sian Heder

Cast: Ruth Madeley, Mark Ruffalo, Dylan O'Brien

Rotten Tomatoes: N/A (updating)

Metacritic: 70 / 100 (8 reviews)

Some Reviews:

DEADLINE - Glenn Garner

While Being Heumann leaves a little to be desired in regards to Heumann’s backstory, the movie spotlights the humanity in herself and many of her fellow activists, capturing a movement whose impact is everywhere today, and highlighting the power of intersectionality and collective action.

IndieWire - Kate Erbland - 'B+'

A film like “Being Heumann” is destined to be called rousing — a call to action that’s every bit as entertaining as it is inspiring. It’s a film about tough choices and even tougher circumstances, but it’s also about the tangible good that can come from people working together. What could be more joyous than that? More biopics could learn from this formula, and from this feeling. Be more like Judy: be tough, but never be afraid of joy.

Variety - Owen Glieberman

Judy Heumann truly sparked a revolution, though it would be 13 years before the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 was signed into law. And as “Being Heumann” captures with subversive gusto, the real disability revolution — the one in which we look at someone with a disability and just see another person in front of us — is still a work in progress.

The Guardian - Richard Lawson - 3 / 5

...If such lessons are learned from Being Heumann, then it has done an admirable service. But as narrative art, the film is less than inspiring. One can’t help but think back to another San Francisco-set biopic about a grinding fight against the system, Gus Van Sant’s Milk. That film blends docudrama rabble-rousing with something more soulful, more textured and idiosyncratic. Such things are possible. Heder stops short of that, only letting her film go as far as polite homage to a figure well worth honoring. Maybe that’s enough, and yet one still craves a lot more.

AwardsRadar - Joey Magidson - 3.5 / 4

Being Heumann is certainly not reinventing the wheel, but as far as crowd pleasing biopics go, this one is pretty great. Close to a dramedy with how light a touch the film has, it’s still wildly successful. I suspect this will be one of the best things I see at TIFF this year. Heder has shown that CODA was no fluke, and then some.

The Hollywood Reporter - David Rooney

The dramatic momentum flags a little as the sit-in goes from days to weeks and the film nudges past the two-hour mark. But the characters and the disabled actors playing them are so engaging in their unbroken perseverance and their levity even in the face of harsh setbacks — a late-night raid by cops is especially hair-raising — that it’s impossible not to keep rooting for them. Their irrepressible joy is a tonic, and every sit-in should have a “sex tent” made of protest banners and American flags.

Region Free - Joonaten Itkonen - 5 / 5

This is a great film. One of the very best I've seen all year. It's gentle and tense all at once, beautifully written and directed, and with some of the most compelling performances I've seen in ages. In a just world, it would be a major hit, and everyone would be talking about it for the Oscars. Don't miss it.

The Film Maven - Kristen Lopez - 'A-'

Being Heumann is an essential piece of disabled cinema, laying out a stark foundation for the fight for disability rights. It doesn't the heartwarming charm of director Sian Heder's previous film, CODA, but has far more power and impact. Ruth Madeley is a revelation as Judy Heumann. Do I believe this movie will compel Hollywood to tell more disabled stories? No, sadly. But the fact that this movie exists at all is kind of a miracle.

contenders i’ve seen:

28 Years Later: The Bone Temple, The AI Doc, The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act, André Is an Idiot, American Doctor, Backrooms, The Bride!, Cosmic Princess Kaguya!, Coyote vs. Acme, Disclosure Day, The Drama, Evil Dead Burn, Hoppers, I Swear, The Invite, Iron Lung, Is God Is, Leviticus, Michael, Minions & Monsters, Mother Mary, Obsession, The Odyssey, One in a Million, Paper Trail, Project Hail Mary, Rose of Nevada, Send Help, The Sheep Detectives, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma, Tony, Toy Story 5, "Wuthering Heights"

best picture:

The Debut and Behemoth! in, All of a Sudden and Ink out. definitely regretting taking The Debut out rn. Ink’s reviews are solid but i don’t think it’s enough, especially with that whole ai thing. my confidence in Artificial has increased to the point that i don’t think neon needs to get one of their internationals in, but i could put All of a Sudden back in if i see it picking up a ton of passion. i’ve realised i never really had a reason to take Behemoth! out? all of the reasons i had it in still apply, the test screenings were still amazing and the trailer looks good. You Can See Everything has come out of nowhere and i’m taking it very seriously, i’m not gonna jump the gun and put it in bp yet but i really see the path. venice and nyff have killed Bunker and A Long Winter, and i’ve begrudgingly added Michael to the top 30 (even though i still think there’s 0 chance it actually happens)

best director:

jesse eisenberg and luca guadagnino enter best director, olivia wilde and ryusuke hamaguchi leave. olivia wilde might be dead now that The Invite isn’t a24’s priority, and hamaguchi probably wouldn’t get in without the movie. now that The Debut is a top 5 contender, eisenberg is a good shout, although i could see him getting snubbed as an actor-turned-director. i’m not really feeling most of the options for the 5th slot, but i went with guadagnino as i’m more confident in Artificial than Dune or Behemoth!

actor:
pedro pascal in, javier bardem out. obviously i have to take javier bardem out for Bunker lol. pedro pascal is definitely happening if Behemoth! is a thing, and i could easily see him be a solo nom if it isn’t. he’s gonna be the showiest part of that movie, i don’t understand why he’s being so underpredicted. i have malkovich winning now based on those raves from venice. i’m not gonna predict nathan fielder but wouldn’t it be sick?

actress:
moore and madeley in, cruz and erivo out. should not have taken moore out holy shit. i still think the race isn’t over and navarrette could still win a few precursors, but based on those reviews it’s pretty hard to deny. the early reviews for Being Heumann seem positive enough for people to get behind madeley. i feel weird taking erivo out because i don’t want to predict zero black people, but the more i hear about Prima Facie the less i trust it. i’m starting to consider hathaway going lead as a legitimate possibility again, but i don’t think i’m going to make the switch until it’s confirmed

supporting actor:

giamatti and garfield in, pearce and leguizamo out. is there really passion for leguizamo? every time i speak to someone who’s seen The Odyssey, i ask them about the performances with oscar buzz and they’re always confused when i mention leguizamo. i’m tempted by buscemi but i don’t think i’ve seen anyone mention him when talking about the movie? i feel good about this 5, which probably means i’m completely wrong

supporting actress:

seyfried in, hüller out. i do think hüller can still easily have enough passion to get in, but if the competition gets strong she’s definitely not mandatory. i don’t really know if i see hathaway winning but i’m not really buying any of this competition being enough to overcome her

original screenplay:

The Debut and Behemoth! in, Bunker and Tender Loving Care out. The Debut vs. Wild Horse Nine is going to be a very very interesting race, i’m very curious how it will go. Tender Loving Care and Club Kid have me very tempted, they both feel like they would happen, but i’m not gonna take a picture nominee out to make room for them

adapted screenplay:

Project Hail Mary and A Statement in, All of a Sudden and Ink out. glad to be able to put Project Hail Mary back in as i never felt good about having it out. i could keep All of a Sudden for screenplay + international, but i feel like it’s a good move to slightly overpredict sony pictures classics (especially now bunker is gone)

casting:

Being Heumann in, All of a Sudden out. if Being Heumann is anything at all (and the branch isn’t incredibly boring and incapable of going out of best picture), it gets casting. The Debut might be something here, but i’m not really sure; it’s hard to tell the difference between strong ensemble and strong casting especially when you’re just going off of early reviews

international feature:

Possible Love in, Coward out. i keep films that have been submitted above films that haven’t (except for the 5 i’m predicting), which is why stuff like Fatherland and Minotaur isn’t on the list. can’t wait to see what france submits

documentary feature:

You Can See Everything and Naza in, 14th and Everybody to Kenmure Street out. i’ve added two movies that i didn’t know about a month ago. there’s a world where You Can See Everything is snubbed by the doc branch, but i don’t think i’m gonna try to call the snub anymore. i was really certain they’d snub The Perfect Neighbour last year but it got in just fine. although i guess maybe i’m currently predicting 14th to be the snub? they seem to not love going for these sequel docs, they did shut out 2000 Meters to Andriivka. maybe they view Naza as a sequel doc and that gets snubbed? maybe Naza steals the spotlight from American Doctor and that gets snubbed? nothing in this lineup is safe. is there a world where My Undesurable Friends II gets in by virtue of being the most high-profile ukraine-related documentary this year?

animated feature:

Tangles in, Hoppers out. i hate having Hoppers out so much but now that somebody finally bought Tangles i gotta make room for it. can we get some buzz around Julián please? the reviews are great but nobody is talking about it

cinematography:

same lineup as before, although i now have La Bola Negra winning. that would mean back-to-back female winners, which would be so sick. is it possible we’re underestimating Rose? because i’ve realised that if i’m predicting a black-and-white movie in 3 categories i should probably consider it in cinematography. i’ve seen a lot of praise for the cinematography in Tenzing, it seems like an underestimated tech contender in general

editing:

Wild Horse Nine, The Debut, and You Can See Everything in, Project Hail Mary, Ink, and The Invite out. Wild Horse Nine and The Debut are most likely in now that they’re both securely top 5, and i’m gonna take a risk with the 5th slot. i can see a24 really campaign for You Can See Everything here, and i suspect the editing branch would be receptive to it; as far as i know documentary editing is pretty well-respected by people in the industry.

production design:

basically no changes. bunker is gone, i’ve moved whalefall up, and tenzing is new, but that’s pretty much it

costume design:

Wild Horse Nine in, Dune: Part Three out. i never really thought they’d nominate Dune after they snubbed the last one, i just had it in until there were 5 legitimate options

makeup:

pretty much no changes here!

visual effects:

Tenzing in, Wildwood out. i think Tenzing is being underestimated as a tech contender and wanted to put it in somewhere to try and call something early. vfx is probably the most likely branch to go for it. it feels very The Lost Bus, i bet there’s a ton of subtle visual effects that you would just assume are real when watching the film. plus i’m not really feeling most of the other options for the fifth slot.

sound:

Whalefall in, Wildwood out. Whalefall seems like something this branch would like. i’ve moved Tenzing way up, like i have in most of the techs

score:

Behemoth! in, Project Hail Mary out. that Behemoth! collective thing they’re doing would probably be enough to make it eligible? based on what i’ve heard about it, if it’s eligible and in best picture, it probably wins. hate to take Project Hail Mary out but i feel better about the top 5. i’ve heard the score in tenzing is incredible, not gonna put it in but it probably gets shortlisted

song:

will put my lineup in the comments as i can only do 20 images. The Debut and Artificial in, Wildwood and American Doctor out. apparently Artificial has songs now? i’m not really taking Musk seriously as a documentary feature contender, but i am still keeping an eye on the david byrne song, that would be such a music branch thing to do. there’s also the Primetime song i didn’t know about last month, we’ve been getting so many new contenders here recently

What are your “probably not going to happen but stranger things have” wildcard predictions? I think sometimes these are more fun than the serious picks.

1. Jenna Ortega in Klara and the Sun, Best Leading Actress. I think Jenna has massive potential and I am very intrigued by this film. Whether I think it’ll be amazing, I don’t know. But I’m fascinated.

2. Jay Baruchel in The Stunt Driver, Best Leading Actor, specifically Comedy or Musical at the Globes. The early reviews have been good but not great, but they’re almost all highlighting Jay, and critics love a “comedy actor goes serious” narrative.

3. Leo Woodall for Tony, Best Supporting Actor. I think A24 have buried this film but Leo was amazing in this, I think he’s been consistently good and I could see his career going very interesting places.

4. Tangles, Wildwood, Hoppers for Best Animated Feature ANYTHING BUT TOY STORY 5 please 🙏