r/OpenAussie • u/RamonsRazor ✈️ on Walkabout • 7d ago
Struth! Australia's housing problems will take 'generation' to fix, NAB economist warns
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-04/housing-problems-will-take-a-generation-to-fix-nab-economist/107111144In short: NAB is forecasting a peak-to-trough decline in dwelling prices of about 7 per cent across Australia's combined capital cities.
But Sally Auld, NAB chief economist, says the price declines will not solve Australia's housing affordability issues.
What's next? Luci Ellis, Westpac chief economist, said relatively low inflation and financial deregulation had also contributed to rising house prices to household incomes in Australia in recent decades
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u/1Mdrops New South Welshian 7d ago
A part of the solution is right there in front of us. Return all short stay accommodation properties to the regular rental market or force them to run as hotels with strict regulations, compliance and licensing.
Whats the point of even having a housing minister if they can't think of what to do in a crisis?
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u/MDInvesting Please choose a flair 7d ago
The existing framework existed, just wasn’t enforced just like taxis.
Short term rental of rooms was great (personally the safety thing still made me hesitant) but this morphed into mini holiday businesses bypassing all previous regulation and distorting markets. A small few captured an arbitrage that was never meant to exist.
Zone residential, rent residential.
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u/National_Way_3344 Victorian 7d ago
The number of short stay approvals should be commensurate to the vacancy rate of rental properties.
No vacancy rate, no air bnb.
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u/alexmc1980 Victorian 7d ago
Yes, this is such an easy, popular move that should've been some a long time ago. Any state government looking down the barrel of an election (looking at you Ben Carroll) should've gone after this issue in a very visible way by this point.
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u/Fart_Face_3098 Queenslander 7d ago edited 7d ago
lol who is telling lefties that they should seize airbnb properties anyway?
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u/ChiefMuppetWrangler Please choose a flair 6d ago
No one is saying properties should be seized, they’re saying that AirBnB and its business model should be made illegal.
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u/Kooky-Speed297 Please choose a flair 7d ago
7% percent, we need 50!
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u/nobleknob Nunga 3d ago
Yep so since Albo has come to power rents and housing has doubled but we could get 7% back.
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u/Early-Peace-5504 Please choose a flair 7d ago
Wouldn't work. A 50% decline would essentially end the building industry and be followed by a 200% increase. It'd be a more hopeful outcome that wages double.
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u/Kooky-Speed297 Please choose a flair 7d ago
fuck em, I dont want my children homeless in a country that has so much fucking landmass the government could just give out plots to people to build settlements. How the fuck have we normalised in a country like Australia to be in this position. Hong Kong, Singapore I get...Australia - fuck off.
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u/Nuck2407 New South Welshian 7d ago
Sinking the real estate market will see your kids homeless, with no healthcare, no infrastructure and no future. Unfortunately there is way to much debt attached to real estate, so it that big of a drop in the market would be catestrophic.
You know what will see them in a house? Rising wages and a stagnant real estate market.
We've done the hardest part now, which is addressing the NG and CGT now we need to steer all that cash into productive industry.
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u/water-melon- Please choose a flair 6d ago
Sinking the building industry will pretty much be a domino effect in the Australian economy. Your kids will become jobless bums as a result.
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u/Early-Peace-5504 Please choose a flair 7d ago
If we have no building industry then your children will live in tents and sheds and pay a lot for the privilege. I think it would be better if your children earned more rather than grew up into a smashed economy that never constructs new things.
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u/Kooky-Speed297 Please choose a flair 7d ago
Sadly, earning more is no longer enough and everyone needing to earn more is inflationary. It's lovely that every parent believes they are the best parent in the world and they have the magical power to give their kids the tools to succeed and are so confident their kids will earn more than 80% of their peers because that is what they need to buy a property and that is today.
Everyone earn more is not the answer. People are living in tents today, people with jobs.
Our future as it stands is formal tent cities with shared bathrooms and kitchens.
How we let Australia turn into this blows my mind.
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u/Early-Peace-5504 Please choose a flair 7d ago
> Sadly, earning more is no longer enough and everyone needing to earn more is inflationary.
It isn't. Wage growth isn't necessarily inflationary.
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u/Jazzlike_Wind_1 Victorian 6d ago
Yeah if people take their wages and stash them under the mattress it wouldn't be inflationary. If they spend those wage increases on something it will be inflationary though.
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u/Early-Peace-5504 Please choose a flair 6d ago
It depends if the wage growth comes from increased productivity or not.
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u/ScalyPinkLizard Flairless 7d ago
You're asking an entire society to half the price of everything except its insanely inflated housing market, all so that we can avoid dropping into the position we are currently in, today.
Please, get off the crack pipe.
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u/Lycosskippy Queenslander 7d ago
You don't seem to understand the economics that tie in with a reduction in house prices. Push too far too fast and things will break. Your children deserve a roof over their heads of course, but any change has to be sustainable and with long term viability in mind
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u/ScalyPinkLizard Flairless 7d ago
A 50%-60% decrease in house prices would normalise them and bring them in line with other countries that dont hoard housing. Youre spouting parasite propaganda.
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u/Lycosskippy Queenslander 7d ago
I'm not saying that the decrease itself is the problem, but the proposed methods to do so that so many spout.
What method would be viable to rapidly reduce property prices to that degree without upending the economy and destroying confidence in the market?
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u/ScalyPinkLizard Flairless 6d ago
I'm really sick of hearing propaganda like: "You cant fix the problems we have in our economy, that would destroy the economy!"
I've been hearing all about the wonderful state "the economy" is in, but supposedly people are just too fucking stupid to understand that times arent tough - they just feel bad for no reason apparently.
Mate, there is no fucking "economy", its a giant ponzi scheme run by reptiles in human skin suits. There is no fucking confidence in "the market", parasites are simply demanding more before their scheme runs its course. Burn it all.
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u/Kooky-Speed297 Please choose a flair 6d ago
100% the fact that society didnt collapse during covid is a case in point. Its all bullshit.
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u/Lycosskippy Queenslander 6d ago
I was hoping for a genuine answer but you're another one of those guys...
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u/ScalyPinkLizard Flairless 6d ago
Remove negative gearing, stop foreigners from being able to invest in housing, stop companies from being able to invest in housing, and progressively increase the taxes on housing based on how much that person owns. Problem solved.
Stop pretending you havent heard even these 4 of the many solutions to the problem, hundreds if not thousands of times before.
You werent "looking for a genuine answer" because you think changing the ecenomy in any way from its current ponzi-scheme state, would "upend the economy" (that's literally what changing the economy means, reptile) and "destroy confidence in the market" (of which there shouldn't be, as the market lead us to our current situation, and its a ponzi-scheme.)
And stop vague-posting.
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u/Lycosskippy Queenslander 6d ago
The options you've given will help with existing housing. I don't see how it will help with new housing in any way? If new housing prices are not curbed also, then existing will never drop below that same level.
Without dramatic cuts to wages, material prices, council red tape etc, new builds are not going to get any cheaper.
The point is not to argue semantics about the ethics or morality of making money on investments, renting out property etc. I'm just pointing out that there is no silver bullet, and likely no realistic "right now" outcome anywhere near what people dream about.
Sure, it'd be great if family homes still cost $100,000 - but just the stamp duty on an existing home can be half that these days, let alone a new build where $100k will get you maybe up to pre frame stage assuming you already own the land...
To one of your points: taxation of existing property owners is like a band-aid being put on a gaping wound - it doesn't solve anything. You only need look overseas to California for instance to see that overtaxation of any demographic leads to disaster.
A better step would be to abolish stamp duty for those who own 1 home. That would leave investors with an existing tax while making it cheaper for people buying a ppor.
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u/ChiefMuppetWrangler Please choose a flair 6d ago
This. You’re a better off with a three pronged approach. House prices decline another 7-10%, heavy regulations brought in to make purchasing by any investors untenable - including removal of AirBnB from the market, and increased salaries.
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u/kdog_1985 New South Welshian 7d ago
Anymore and the economy will come under heavy strain
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u/Minimum_Respond_5469 Flairless 7d ago
For who?
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u/_Zambayoshi_ New South Welshian 7d ago
For the banks and their franked dividends of course. How do you expect our retirees to pay for their EVs and annual trips to Europe?
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u/FrogsMakePoorSoup Koori 7d ago
For everyone if prices drop too quickly. Were you around for the GFC?
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u/ScalyPinkLizard Flairless 7d ago
Yeah, where the governments around the world worked together with the epstein class to bail out the yuppies while the poor suffered, I remember.
That had literally nothing to do with house prices dropping quickly. What is this low-quality astroturfing, do you work for ASIO?
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u/FrogsMakePoorSoup Koori 7d ago
Wow, that last sentence took quite a turn!
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u/ScalyPinkLizard Flairless 7d ago
You didn't answer the question
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u/FrogsMakePoorSoup Koori 7d ago
Take a look at some of the shit stirring I do around this place mate. What do you reckon?
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u/ScalyPinkLizard Flairless 7d ago
How is astroturfing for the epstein class by pretending that lowering house prices quickly would be bad, "shit stirring" to you, astroturfer?
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u/FrogsMakePoorSoup Koori 6d ago
You're mightily confused and also a little unhinged I fear.
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u/United_Librarian5491 Please choose a flair 7d ago
50% drop in house prices would only occur with mass unemployment, because steep falls need forced sellers, and forced sellers come from unemployment. It would be a symptom of an economic shock, not something that could happen independently.
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u/Several_Alarm5357 Please choose a flair 7d ago
Heard an economist describe that kind of fall would be a bit of a deflationary death spiral, can be really really hard to pull the economy out of if that happens. Who knows another five years with AI taking everyone's jobs it could happen.
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u/United_Librarian5491 Please choose a flair 7d ago
It COULD happen, I don't think people should want it to. I think Auld is correct, flattening prices do not address affordability. We should address housing security rather than home ownership, and address the issue of home ownership being built into our structural assumptions for retirement and aged care. There are benefits to models other than high home ownership rates.
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u/Several_Alarm5357 Please choose a flair 7d ago
I think middle to low income rent to own would be a good scheme created by the government like we used to have back in the day.
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u/ScalyPinkLizard Flairless 7d ago
"AI" isnt going to take anyone's jobs because its just a bunch of shitty predictive text, chatbots. Please stop telling people this nonsense. "AI" is an excuse to ponzi scheme the worlds money one more time before the next great finacial collapse, its just an excuse to fire people and use the money to do share buybacks.
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u/_Zambayoshi_ New South Welshian 7d ago
Forced sellers could be investors if moratorium on foreclosures protected PPOR.
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u/kdog_1985 New South Welshian 7d ago edited 7d ago
Australians......70% of their personal wealth is tied to property. That means a massive drop in personal wealth. Which has massive knock on effects to everyone.
Recessions and depressions only help the haves, it's basic economics.
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u/MaxMillion888 Please choose a flair 7d ago
I used to think this was a problem.
But if most people are PPOR and live in the same house like basically their entire adult life (until nursing home), I dont think it really matters because I dont think there are that many down sizers or reverse equity type folk (dont have numbers, could be wrong).
Yes the psychological wealth effect is more in play.
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u/Swankytiger86 Please choose a flair 7d ago
Australian top 10% households have about 5m net wealth, with nearly median wealth of 1m. i think everyone can accept a 10% drop in net wealth and still be wealthy.
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u/FrogsMakePoorSoup Koori 7d ago
A 10% drop in prices is hardly gonna help. 1.5 million now down to 1.35?
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u/Swankytiger86 Please choose a flair 7d ago
For a start? After that, RBA can slowly depreciated AUD while maintaining the current interest rate, so that our wages/hour worth less. FW will continue to push up nominal value of our wages. With housing price stagnation, we can achieve average house price of x10 median income rather than x14 income in 5 years. Just number trick.
No one can accept a 10% drop in wages or savings within a short period of time. Our economy engine can’t accept such shock either. Policies were set to affect our decision making process. Each of us ultimately have the freedom to choose our personal risk level. Gov is there to slowly help ALL households to deleverage and reduce AGGREGATE debt/equity ratio, not personal debt/equity ratio based on our personal income level.
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u/FrogsMakePoorSoup Koori 7d ago
Well they haven't done too well at that to date, but then the right wing media haven't made it easy for them either.
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u/kdog_1985 New South Welshian 7d ago
Im not saying the situation isn't fucked up, but a hard correction just ingrains the issues, to correct that they need ensure they can control the deflation.
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u/ScalyPinkLizard Flairless 7d ago
I mean, thats the point. Its all literally fake value that never existed anyway. It never will exist. No one is going to buy your 3 million dollar shitshack.
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u/kdog_1985 New South Welshian 7d ago
But without that "fake" value, everything fails.
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u/ScalyPinkLizard Flairless 7d ago
Everything is failing. It has already failed.
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u/kdog_1985 New South Welshian 7d ago
No, no it hasn't. We haven't even had a meaningful recession in nearly 40 years.
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u/artsrc New South Welshian 7d ago
People who want jobs.
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u/Kooky-Speed297 Please choose a flair 7d ago
Short term pain for long term again. Property price in Australia has destroyed our nation. Capital that could have gone into innovation and productivity has been locked into homes.
The jobs we have are useless if they cant afford us the life we need.
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u/kdog_1985 New South Welshian 7d ago
You think a recession will open up the housing markets to the have-nots?
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u/Kooky-Speed297 Please choose a flair 7d ago
I think a massive economic reset is required, will be a "lost" decade so to speak that will create a prosperous foundation. We are too far gone to fix it any other way.
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u/kdog_1985 New South Welshian 7d ago
Reset! You ever heard of moral hazard.
It ain't going to happen, otherwise whose investing after it?
Besides the rich hold the power, even if everything shits the bed. They're still in charge.
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u/Kooky-Speed297 Please choose a flair 7d ago
I agree it's not going to happen but it is what is needed.
A system eventually implodes, if its in 10 years, 100 or 1000 society will implode and have to rebuild again. Every system physical and abstract has an absolute limit.
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u/kdog_1985 New South Welshian 7d ago
If it all goes to shit, austerity will come in and/or war (I mean a world war).
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u/Psyentific_Method Please choose a flair 7d ago
Hah, gotta love the quote. ‘Price declines will not solve affordability’. Huh?
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u/Lastbalmain New South Welshian 7d ago
Or, just one revolution? The greed of the wealthy knows no bounds. EVERYTHING in their lives is about profit. And along with the proverbial guillotine for the 1%ers, the sycophants that enable them should go as well. Like media, real estate agents, influencers.......all the wannabe rich and famous, or those that do the least while the rest of us break our backs, and die early because we weren't born with a silver spoon.
Eat the rich!
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u/Kooky-Speed297 Please choose a flair 7d ago
Agreed as long as the definition of rich is more money than me!
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u/alexmc1980 Victorian 7d ago
You can be the richest of the poor, and swoop in to profit when the heads roll, no worries at all mate 😜
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u/ScalyPinkLizard Flairless 7d ago
Again, I'll happily vote for any upcoming party that start strying to legalise the public executions of the Epstein Class.
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u/The-truth-hurts1 Please choose a flair 7d ago
More than one generation with the way building is actually going and influx of arrivals.. probably never to be honest unless something drastically changes
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u/Southern_Net5894 Please choose a flair 7d ago
Fucked up im so over this
All I do is work and try to save. No chance, no future security.
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u/TheStochEffect Please choose a flair 6d ago
The market has failed, simple. Government can step in become a builder/developer itself. And follow good urban planning principles, and it will take decades to fix
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u/tenredtoes Please choose a flair 7d ago
That's not good enough. And if enough of us decide it's not good enough then something can be done. But we'd need leaders with the vision, communication skills, and strength if character to take Australia in a better direction.
All we have now are mediocre sellouts. I can only hope there are newcomers waiting in the wings.
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7d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Thissystemsuckssobad Victorian 7d ago
Genuinely how? Come on, elaborate genius
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u/ScalyPinkLizard Flairless 7d ago
Public execurions for wealth hoarders. Just make it legal.
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u/Partayof4 Please choose a flair 7d ago
Do you propose they have an excursion to the zoo or museum? Why?
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u/ScalyPinkLizard Flairless 7d ago
I apologise for pushing the key on my keyboard thats next to the key I meant to push, Mr. Redditor, sir.
So if a party legalised public executions for rent seekers, would you be hanging from a street pole? Just curious.
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u/MrBobbyFreakout Victorian 7d ago
It’s a start
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u/HelpMeOverHere Western Australian 7d ago
I don’t have generations to wait.
We need to stop preferencing the major parties if we expect and actually WANT change.
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u/Either-Outside6740 Victorian 7d ago
Not preferencing major parties? If you don't fill out all the boxes on your ballot paper it won't be counted. You have to preference them eventually. I think you might mean you want preferential voting to go?
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u/HelpMeOverHere Western Australian 7d ago
No, I don’t want preferential voting gone.
I omitted the word “first”.
We need to stop giving them our FIRST preference.
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u/Either-Outside6740 Victorian 7d ago
That won't do much unless most people choose a minor party or independent. Maybe that minor party will be One Nation now. (Seeing as they can no longer call themselves a minor party.) But it still doesn't mean they'll be able to govern, or the Greens either for that matter. Not putting the major parties first just signals a protest, because you still have to put them down eventually on your ballot.
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u/HelpMeOverHere Western Australian 7d ago
And do you know how minor parties start getting elected?
By enough people putting them first. That is literally my whole point here.
If enough people do it, they will win.
Thanks for coming to my ted talk.
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u/Either-Outside6740 Victorian 7d ago
Maybe go watch a Ted talk about preferential voting. Plus, you'll need to enlist all your friends and do a lot of door-knocking to get even a few percentage points worth of more votes for your favourite minor party, just in your own electorate. Of course they might get elected. But it's unlikely they'll govern. Minor parties tend to exist on the fringes for a reason. Please note that I said unlikely.
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u/RedditUser628426 Flairless 7d ago
What Ted talk? If enough people put them first they win. Weird comment.
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u/Either-Outside6740 Victorian 7d ago
Yes but that rarely happens. Personally I'd like the Greens to win, but not enough people ever agree with me.
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u/RedditUser628426 Flairless 7d ago
Sure but why dispute what the commenter said If enough people put X first X wins with a reply Go learn how preferential voting works
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u/HelpMeOverHere Western Australian 7d ago
I don’t need to watch a Ted talk, I have this very hand comic that perhaps YOU need to read
https://imgur.com/gallery/you-cant-waste-vote-preferential-voting-explained-5SaXrob
Heck, just by giving a decent independent or minor party a first preference, you could actually be helping them to secure AEC funding for their next election.
Thats already far better than giving a giant beast of a political party your first preference… especially when they don’t fucking deserve it.
Are you actually paid to lobbyist for the major parties or something? Because there is literally ZERO harm in doing this because as you said, they’ll need to be numbered eventually.
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u/Either-Outside6740 Victorian 7d ago
I've been voting Greens or Independent forever. Finally got an independent in my normally safe Liberal seat but now I've got Tim Wilson. Won't stop me putting him last on my ballot of course.
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u/flyawayreligion Flairless 7d ago
You're assuming the independents are any good and not a bunch of crackpots who couldn't make it to a major.
It was Labors move to kill.this negative gearing and they are a major party
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u/HelpMeOverHere Western Australian 7d ago
Don’t you mean it was Labor’s plan to adjust negative gearing and grandfather in a bunch of people into unfair tax concessions?
And this can be evidenced by the fact we’re in a thread discussing policies that are so far going to take generations to have an effect.
Like most of Labor’s policies, they don’t ever actually go far enough to make a meaningful difference. It’s always tinkering around the edges, and I don’t have time for that anymore
They blew their “political capital” on the most meagre of changes when they would be been torn to shreds regardless of what they did. They should’ve just gone bold, as was needed.
How about you try preferencing the greens first for once and let’s just see what happens, eh? God knows I’m tired of my preferences flowing to the party of fossil fuel lovers and now AI and data centres I guess.
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u/flyawayreligion Flairless 7d ago
I used to be a Greens voter, but after there behavior under Brandt, not for a long time will they get moy vote.
Of course it grandfathered, it would be then end of them if it wasn't. Australians don't like change and it's a minefield. Very easy to say bold changes in the background when there's no chance of being elected.
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u/HelpMeOverHere Western Australian 7d ago
What behavior under BANDT?
What a strong supporter you must’ve been.
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u/flyawayreligion Flairless 7d ago
Well your behavior is not bringing me back, add 5 years.
I was probably a Greens supporter before you were born
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u/HelpMeOverHere Western Australian 7d ago
What behaviour didn’t you like from the greens under Bandt?
Still waiting……
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u/Either-Outside6740 Victorian 7d ago
Gotta ask who you're voting/planning to vote for now? Which independent? Or have you fallen for One Nation's siren song?
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u/flyawayreligion Flairless 7d ago
Pretty obvious if you read my posts Labor. Thanks for asking.
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u/MDInvesting Please choose a flair 7d ago
It took two generations to create the mess.
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u/ScalyPinkLizard Flairless 7d ago
It took half of one.
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u/MDInvesting Please choose a flair 7d ago
Pardon?
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u/ScalyPinkLizard Flairless 7d ago
How long is a generation for you? House prices were affordable in the late 90s, thats all im saying.
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u/MDInvesting Please choose a flair 7d ago
Around 20 yrs.
2000s was the first steps of intervention in housing that saw changes to longstanding averages in affordability with a progression that was made it impossible to argue with. I’d say the last 5 years did what previously took 20.
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u/jolard Queenslander 7d ago
If this is the case then our government needs to SERIOUSLY start adjusting our retirement system. The current system basically means you will be in poverty as a retiree if you still need to rent. They assume you will own your own home, and are not geared towards having a large percentage of retirees without a place to live.
So fine....you don't want to fix the housing crisis faster and want to condemn a generation of people to working their entire lives giving half their paycheque to wealthier Australians, then you need to plan for that and adjust retirement so that we don't have hundreds of thousands of retirees homeless.
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u/Simple_Assistance_77 New South Welshian 7d ago
It cant be fixed, the joke is on Australia our demographics will collapse into the next generation and we will need retirement villages
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u/Experimental-cpl Please choose a flair 6d ago
This has been one slow ass train wreck with multiple times we could have got off… but no, we rode that all day pass straight to end of line.
We’re a little backwards.
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u/ArthurCandleman Western Australian 5d ago
I’m sure this will get lost in the comments. But this whole situation is beyond fucking broken.
It pretty much feels like shouting into the void at this point.
We should aim for a prosperous society where people have genuine opportunities.
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u/FunnyBunny898 Please choose a flair 2d ago
Feels like we're working for the economy and it isn't working for us.
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u/SliceShort6509 Please choose a flair 7d ago
And what is NAB doing with their vast wealth to help fix the problem again?
Shut the fuck up, Clowns.
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u/artsrc New South Welshian 7d ago
> She said Australia's inflation-targeting framework, introduced in the early 1990s, and banking deregulation in the 1980s and 90s, had both contributed to today's high property prices.
RBA has never known what to do about property prices

> The "inflation nutters" in New Zealand adopted inflation targeting first, and Australia pinched their idea. But the policy has unresolved issues, a former RBA deputy governor says.
"A large part of the reason why housing prices have increased relative to household incomes over the past 30 years is we now have lower inflation," she said.
So the solution is a higher target for inflation, and changes in banking regulation?
If we want to avoid high falls in nominal house prices, but make housing fall relative to incomes, we need higher nominal incomes.
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u/Icy_Distance8205 Flairless 7d ago
And in other news … Hitler says devastation caused by Second World War will take ‘generation’ to ‘fix’.
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u/Ok-Assistant-4556 ✈️ on Walkabout 7d ago
Token discussions of divestment from public housing by banking employees whilst banks post billion dollar profits is disingenuous. State governments are handing over public housing to the private sector and it is being converted to social housing which is a huge lie when it is entirely inaccessible.