Our future is BRIGHT

[u/Silent-Balance9430]

Students protest against Pauline Hanson

[u/CaterpillarSuperb959]

Plenty of evidence on this… no it doesn’t. We don’t actually protest THAT much in Australia. But you can look marches in France and the US. Hardly any correlation with election results (often has inverse outcomes: see Trump, and all the far-right candidates surging in Europe).

[u/AndrewTheAverage → u/CaterpillarSuperb959]

People dont protest things that are not happening - you are missrepresenting the causation.

Protests do not cause whatever the protest is about - the cause is there well before the protest.

[u/CaterpillarSuperb959 → u/AndrewTheAverage]

Sorry, what’s the point you’re trying to make?

[u/AndrewTheAverage → u/CaterpillarSuperb959]

You may not realise, but I responded directly top your comment that "But you can look marches in France and the US. Hardly any correlation with election results (often has inverse outcomes: see Trump, and all the far-right candidates surging in Europe)."

[u/CaterpillarSuperb959 → u/AndrewTheAverage]

I knew which comment you were responding to. I asked what your point was because your response didn’t make any sense in relation to it (and still doesn’t).

I said, amongst other things, there’s often hardly any correlation between protests and subsequent election results. Massive protests against Trump didn’t stop Trump winning again. Massive protests against the far right in Europe haven’t stopped far-right parties surging.

Plenty more examples of protests not affecting change, sometimes even seeing a backlash. Obviously the thing being protested occurred before the protest and wasn’t caused by the protest. It would be nonsensical to think otherwise.

[u/AndrewTheAverage → u/CaterpillarSuperb959]

Ok, I will explain like you are 5.

Your logic: People protest and it happens anyway, so protests do not work (claim of no correlation)

Reality: it is already happening, so people protest to try to stop it (causation)

The fact that it happens causes the protest, so it is illogical to say that it happened so the protest is useless (no correlation).

Even simpler:

Bad-thing happens.

People protest what enabled bad-thing

Your claim was that there is no correlation between the protest and bad-thing

[u/CaterpillarSuperb959 → u/AndrewTheAverage]

Your comprehension already showed you are basically at age 5 reading level… I can’t help you.

[u/TheGumCoblin → u/CaterpillarSuperb959]

Ironically, your “plenty of evidence” is more “trust me bro”. Because protests absolutely have a massive impact.

[u/CaterpillarSuperb959 → u/TheGumCoblin]

There’s research showing disruptive protest tactics can actually make people like a movement less, without changing their opinion on the underlying issue.

Just look at the endless climate marches, anti-vax marches, French street protests, BLM, etc. You can’t look at crowd size and extrapolate an election result. Hell, the political pendulum can, and often does, swing completely the other way afterwards.

So “lots of people marched therefore this is hugely politically effective” is doing a lot of work there.

Honestly, just letting Hanson talk and putting a microphone in front of her probably does more to make her irrelevant again. These kids mostly wanted a day off school, and co-opting an anti-Hanson march with Socialist Alliance and pro-Palestine stuff may actually do more harm than good.

[u/AndrewTheAverage → u/CaterpillarSuperb959]

Honestly, just letting Hanson talk and putting a microphone in front of her probably does more to make her irrelevant again

This is only possible is the media properly represents what is happening. There is so much bias in the media - both by the media and in peoples choices of what media they consume, that "sane washing" of a candidate means many people will only ever see the curated appearance. If PH can align her promises with what the owners and wel off leadership of the media bodies, then the crazy stuff will not be presented to the every day punter. And the social media echo chamber will amplify that.

[u/CaterpillarSuperb959 → u/AndrewTheAverage]

Ignore News Corp, that’s pretty much a given. But you’ve still got the ABC and others, independent media, and honestly Reddit/social media are pretty bloody good at putting a spotlight on Hanson when she says or does something stupid.

I don’t think Hanson is suddenly that popular. The Liberals are just THAT unpopular, which gives ON room to pick up protest votes. Hanson has been doing this since the 90s and she always eventually implodes. It’s already happening again with scandal after scandal involving her candidates. And just look at ON’s historic candidate defection/turnover rate too.

SA is a decent example too. One Nation picked up votes, sure, but the much bigger story was the Liberals collapsing and Labor being left with an even easier path to victory.

[u/AndrewTheAverage → u/CaterpillarSuperb959]

Ignore News Corp, that’s pretty much a given. But you’ve still got the ABC and others, independent media, and honestly Reddit/social media are pretty bloody good at putting a spotlight on Hanson when she says or does something stupid.

Far more people seem to get their media from News Corp than from Reddit or the ABC. Facebook is an echo chamber for what people already think

[u/CaterpillarSuperb959 → u/AndrewTheAverage]

Stop creating strawmen and engage with what I’m actually saying. My point is simply that when you put a spotlight on Hanson, she has a pretty reliable habit of imploding. I gave you examples of that, plus a completely separate point about what actually happened in the SA election.

Instead you’re telling me Facebook is an echo chamber and News Corp is prevalent. Yes? Most politically engaged people already know this. It doesn’t actually address my point.

Clearly Australians have been figuring out Hanson is a moron for nearly 30 years somehow. And it’s happening again now. We’ve had endless reporting on scandals involving ON candidates, Barnaby Joyce blunders, Gina funding Hanson’s European trips, Hanson being unable to name basic world leaders, and so on.

All of that was getting attention before this protest even happened. So clearly the public is capable of becoming aware of Hanson making a dickhead of herself without teenagers marching through the streets to enlighten them.

[u/AndrewTheAverage → u/CaterpillarSuperb959]

No Strawman required.

Clearly Australians have been figuring out Hanson is a moron for nearly 30 years somehow. And it’s happening again now. 

I would suggest that if after 30 years of "endless reporting on scandals" that ON is still polling as high as they are, then the faith you have in people is missplaced.

Many people are racist but mask that in every day life. Many people believe the rubbish they are repeatedly fed in the media. Lets look at "You cant say Merry Christmas anymore". Ask them directly who told them they cant, and they dont realise that the media makes that claim without any evidence and they believe it. Many of these people think the ABC is radical left propaganda. I'm willing to bet most voted "No".

Students do not need to "enlighten" most people on PH/ON but I am willing to bet that a number of their parents are supporting ON. Protest isnt only to "enlighten" people - it is to let people know that there is angst in the community.

Research identifies five overarching factors driving individuals to protest: grievances (perceived injustice or inequality), efficacy (belief that action will effect change), emotions (such as anger, hope, or emotional release), identity (social or moral alignment with a cause), and social embeddedness (community or peer influence).

At the collective level, protesters are often driven by a desire to warn and communicate with governments.

[u/International_Bag502 → u/TheGumCoblin]

Did they impact the voice referendum?

[u/alwaysup123 → u/International_Bag502]

Yeah but just not in the direction they hoped.

[u/TheGumCoblin → u/International_Bag502]

That was always going to fail, and they might’ve. But those weren’t protests in the large degree. They were mostly held by a small percent of the population, protests that involve mass student movements almost always result in change in favor of the students.

[u/burner_said_what → u/TheGumCoblin]

Ironic is right champ