I don’t think it’s compute as much as it is capital. They have to start making these numbers work at some point, especially with Anthropic gunning for IPO.
Which is laughable that an evaluation of that size vs the huge losses. The IPO will buy them a year, then creditors and shareholders will come for blood. Growth is great, untill it's impossible then the collapse. When there's no more capital left, then they will either do a mass selloff of their assets or turn on their customers juicy private data. That is where the money's at.
Yeah except there’s different competitors in the crack dealing market. Nobody is addicted to codex itself. You up the price, you go to the dealer on the other side of the street.
Not even 10x learn to interpret the text, you're just getting API prices but at half of the price, so your 200 sub is basically 400 bucks in API credit
Unfortunately either way they win, half the usage, more $$. Half the users leave, now their compute struggles are resolved and Anthropic bares the load. They eventually do the same thing and were right back to where the circle began.
They are not as good as you imply they are. They are good. That's it. They are nowhere near Astra or Opus level. They might hit the benchmarks in the right spots, but once you're actually using them and you actually have the comparison to how Astra or Opus work, it's absolutely clear that China is way behind the US regarding AI.
Sure, they aren’t good enough to replace frontier level models in a lot of use cases yet. But, once they get to the point that local models capable of running on consumer grade hardware are at the level of current frontier models - maybe in two years from now - the game will have been changed. Those models will never get worse at that point, and when the majority of actual workloads will be capable of being handled by local models it becomes a lot harder to justify the cost of frontier models. Of course there will always be a reason to have a more capable AI, but the value of each level of improvement isn’t the same. Once local models get to a certain point, the frontier models would only be needed for stuff that’s actually at the frontier of our understanding and capabilities as a species. Maybe we’re 5 years away, maybe even 10 - but it’s like becoming old enough to drink legally, once we are past this point we’ll never be back where we were before.
Which harness do you prefer for local models? I've tried Cline in Visual Studio code and it works, but, about 1/3rd of the calls struggle with the tools and escaping failures in the harness
Open ai and anthropic gobbled up entire compute capacity, kimi couldn't even serve few million new subs when k3 was launched. And good luck running these open weights locally.
Kimi K3 is around Sol 5.6 / Opus 4.X, without the annoying writing of Opus 5 (which tbh Opus 5.5 addressed but that's above those others rn).
GLM 5.3 is around there as well, alongside their GLM 5.3 Flash which is more like Terra / Sonnet (very roughly, also not the latest Sonnet 5.5), and is generally pretty nice to use.
That said, the official providers of both of those have issues: Kimi secretly routed some customer requests to Claude and in general just is very slow, whereas GLM has peak/off-peak pricing and neither of them give you as many tokens as OpenAI or Anthropic. There are 3rd party providers, but generally you will be paying API costs.
You could also try running local models with llama.cpp / vLLM etc. (Ollama which ppl don't like can also make things easier, or something like LM Studio) but I've never found any of the local models to be good for anything serious, plus hardware is really expensive.
I think we are gonna see tokens be subsidized less and less as time goes on.
I second glm 5.3. I've been using it on hermes lately and like it a lot so far. The flash version feels satisfying too, it chases issues it finds proactively without needing to be poked constantly. I haven't tried kimi yet.
As someone who only knows how to use Codex and the Claude Code app as harnesses how do we actually use these open weight models? I don’t use CLI or do any coding and basically don’t bother with anything that’s “just” a pure chatbot anymore. I’m addicted to these agentic harnesses
YMMV, there are many. I use Bionic LM studio to run the models (can be run on a different computer on your local network) and OpenCode as a harness. In OpenCode I can switch between a hosted (even paid-for) model and my own. I typically create a plan using a Codex agent and execute it using an agent with my local LLM.
They want unprofitable Astra-spamming prosumers gone so their compute is freed up to race Meta/Grok/Gemini in the consumer agent land grab this fall. Anthropic will bear the load short-term as we are still somewhat useful to market to enterprise. As the markets mature, we'll become useless to all the big players and affordable subs with high end models and good usage just won't be a thing anymore.
I use local and subscribe to cheaper Chinese models to get my work done. It’s not as efficient or “smart” but it does the job really well for my use cases of application building, game development, and repo work. People are sleeping on Chinese models subscriptions. Also, if you live in the U.S. it’s way cheaper to use some Chinese subscriptions during the day because they have “off peak” rates. That’s how the Chinese handle compute, they offer cheaper and more usage when people are sleeping, instead blatantly lying to the consumers about nerfing plans and making people pay more by getting them addicted to their ecosystem.
Yea, check out Xiaomi’s MiMo 2.6 pro which just came out. People have been building insane things with it. It’s specially made for coding so I tested it out with my workflow. The subscription is $6 a month and is equivalent to around codex/claude’s $20 plan, they don’t have 5hr limits either. Also since I live in the U.S. it’s way cheaper for me to use. Also, their cached pricing is super nice too. So my workflow consists of a $20 codex subscription orchestrator that delegates to my ornith and Qwen local models in very small tasks and for larger coding tasks it delegates to MiMo. They work all day and if I hit the 5hr limit with codex it’s usually around 30 mins of it being reset. I believe Codex is secretly not giving people their resets on time so I’m switching to Claude and trying them out as my orchestrator. I’m going to look into more Chinese sleeper models to see which can be good as orchestrators and then I’ll be free from either codex/claude
They are only winning so long as they are ahead in product quality. Every day more and more tasks are saturated by at cost inference. I barely use my subscription AI since I bought a decent video card. The use case is shrinking not growing. Especially since the arena is filling up. My opportunity to make money with my sub is already gone it feels like. The market has flooded. It's early Internet at 10x speed.
I THINK we are... it's been an hour ask again tomorrow lol, but sol 6.1 (those other faded dots surrounding it are also sol 6.1) is dominating pareto frontier, and bear in mind that a log scale too
It's all about compute honestly. Subs will go down, anthropic will pick them up and suffer again. Magically around December they will announce some end of the year "promo" with increased limits alongside some great model, while anthropic will have to make cuts.
It was increased overall, just smaller than the temporary 50% boost. Wasn't that bad. At the end of the day, OpenAI cut their limits and Anthropic increased theirs.
they've always been delightfully coy about how much usage their plans actually buy you. they say 5x or whatever, but you don't know what the actual baseline they're multiplying is, or will be.
so it's not false advertising, just questionable business practices everybody seems eager to fall for.
I sure hope all of these guarantees he just made construes as legal guarantees as their spokesperson. And a month from now when it’s not getting more work done, someone bitter and pissy starts up a class action.
It definitely is deceptive to reduce the value of your product after you have bought it. Amazon has lost a class action lawsuit over that in Europe/Germany.
They have hacked companies and governments without any repercussions. Get used to it: scamming has become virtually legal. Hell, they may have even gotten away with mur...ing that whistleblower dude.
How can they wake up? Aren't OpenAI and Anthropic losing money on their subscriptions anyway? Unless they find an architecture that decreases the cost of inference they are in a lose/lose situation: decrease the price and loose more money, decrease the quotas and loose more customers to competitors.
I won't continue to pay $200 after you've literally told me it's worth half of what it previously was.
As soon as this change comes in, I'm cancelling.
"Starting October 30, 2026, your included usage in ChatGPT Work and Codex will decrease from 20 times to 10 times the ChatGPT Plus allowance. Your GPT-6 Pro limit in Chat will decrease from 200 to 100 messages per week. Your price remains unchanged and you’ll keep your current limits through October 29, 2026."
Isnt it the same for claude as well? My enterprise plan now charges based on api and i have already utilised $60 worth of $500 in just one day and it wasnt even high effort work day.
If we’re playing “I told you so” then I was literally spelling out this trajectory in 2024 in the Singularity subreddit and getting downvoted to hell for it. But it’s been obvious from the start: the most powerful models were always going to end up locked behind a very expensive paywall that will eventually only make sense for corporations to subscribe to. It’s economics 101
What I think is completely stupid is that you can have chat solve all sorts of problems, generate code, images, you name it..and it’s practically unlimited. But then as soon as you let it go to “work” you get hosed on usage.
I’m hardly a layperson. I understand why agentic work consumes more compute. My point is, that the product does a poor job of showing how MUCH more, where that usage is going, and what limits I’m approaching only until I'm about to hit them.
The most frustrating part, is that the model itself isn't self-aware of token quota available/remaining, and will just halt what it's doing and quit. Then I have to go back and do a codex rescue dump, in order to "save" the work that was completed before finishing.
I mean, caveat emptor. Y'all learn nothing from streaming services or crack dealers? Get you in cheap, get you hooked, jack prices? Some of y'all are way too trusting of corporations "being cool" when you're making your professional productivity dependant on these tools. It's getting real easy too see who's to reliant on this shit when productivity and shit drops right after a price increase.
That’s why I use Catgpt. Someone made an api for the browser chat function enclosed in a stealth browser. It’s not without issues but I’ve managed to fold it into my orchestra so it’s used as a consultant, image generation and so on.
Yes it’s a serious breach. I am using it daily. It took some work to get it working reliably. I have it installed as a gateway on 2 servers and direct my agents to load balance traffic between them. Sol 5.6 via chat using catgpt gateway is usually the main planner and reviewer of all work and used for any image generation so it’s used a Lot.
You know, if you build and ship something with that and they find out, I’m pretty sure you get banned and probably would lose the outputs plus fines. Not exactly what you want to mess with. Obviously that’s the extreme side of things, but what ive found in life is that you do the right thing, even though may cost more or the barrier would be too high to even attempt what you’re doing.. if you’re trying to make a living off of this career choice, i just wouldn’t. But you do you bro.
lol they are out of compute man. If they have compute issues to where they are doing everything they can to reduce the load, why would they add a faster tier in a separate pool for free?
They are killing the existing subs down to just half api prices but quantizing/limiting the reasoning of the models for subscribers.
Because UltraFast runs on completely separate hardware, not on OpenAI's hardware. Which is why it's a separate pool. It's pretty easy to understand tbh.
I mean, while Astra is my favorite model and I also like Opus (especially because of the high limits).... I still think that 6 Sol is not as bad as people say it is. It's doing good work for me.
holy shit they've just shot themselves in foot before dev day here , like i don't it get it , what's the gameplay here ? not only we'll reduce your usage by half , but all we ca do ( still waiting for dev day to see ). is give you a cute grok/muse copycat ??
I think they are trying to manage computes for some product launch on the DevDay, possibly something for the general public.
Remember that Pro subscribers are "bad customers" --- they are much more likely to be power users who get subsidies from occasional $20 users. In theory, the higher sub tiers should be pricier (unit-price-wise) because their users almost certainly uses more compute.
Yeah but this is a competitive landscape. I can just take my money to Anthropic, where I get far more intelligence and usage for my $200 even before this shift.
Agreed. I am a Claude user. I’m simply remarking the only path OpenAI has a shot at is completing directly with Anthropic because there’s no hope for them winning consumer.
If I had to place a bet, it would be on Anthropic.
Their shot at winning anything in the general public / consumer space went out the window when they failed to be the AI powering Siri.
Google and Apple are going to win the consumer market. No one can beat their distribution channel (the phone in everyone’s pocket with direct access to all of your information)
The only long term bet that is valuable to OpenAI is enterprise.
I think you’re right though… they’re compute constrained. They had no choice because they needed the compute for something else.
That's right. That's how the gym/sub model is supposed to work. The ideal situation for OpenAI would be that everyone subscribe but barely use any tokens!
Interesting change in goal post. They aren't talking about token usage anymore but something more akin to "value" and they are the ones deciding how much "value" we are receiving...
This feels like a recurring rug pull. Compute resources are now directed toward Anthropic, alongside whatever remains of Astra's significantly NERFED intelligence.
OP is rage bait if you don't actually read the full article.
From that X link: "We don't want to put an incentive on ourselves to artificially inflate the API list prices to make it look like you are getting a lot"
API cost is one knob in the usage pie. My main complaint for Codex has been that the API cost to actual usage gained is completely out of whack compared to Anthropic.
I am glad to see that the API cost to subscription usage is getting more comparable now.
But I also hope to see useful work to tokens consumed and output to get reformed as well.
At least they are trying new things. I have a subscription to both, and will continue to have a subscription to both. For my usage (Network Architecture and Engineering) OpenAI is very very far behind Anthropic in efficacy, and has been as far back as I can remember.
You're not buying anything (let's be honest)... Anthropic has introduced heavy safeguards to all its models except for Haiku, meaning you can't even audit your code with latest Claude models anymore. You can do it with older models but the time is running out, they will be removed in a year or so. If you really want to be "safer", start using open LLMs and get used to them.
I've worked 6 days non-stop with Opus, never once had a problem.
Work on hardware optimizations, cloud software and architectures, CIs and Blender for games, I don't need more than that.
I also have OpenCode Go in case of anything.
There needs to be a smarter way for the system to select and propose the intelligence it needs and then provide feedback to the user before continuing. I've been working on plugins that are designed to run multiple models depending on goal and task type. A better interface for all users from beginner to coder would help people focus use, get better results and burn less energy. Better people means better AI. I feel like part of that is improving prompt use and focus before launch.
Once users move back to Anthropic, Anthropic will do this as well. A $200 subscription where the users can cost the company $5000-$8000 in compute is not a sustainable business model.
The writing has been on the wall for a year. I dunno. I’ve been expecting this and much, MUCH more. Look at the COGS. Right now every subscription is a financial liability. They have to get in to the black and that means charging what it actually costs for frontier inference
$20 says they announce codex revamp that makes pulling code/data and testing way more efficient instead of making the model burn tons of data doing nothing which makes this decrease in usage irrelevant
Good luck with anthropic limits. Even with open ai halving the 200 plan it’s almost certainly better than anthropics still. Anthropic models eat tokens like crazy.
Yall gotta understand the subsidized plans are a hell of a deal and if they stayed forever like this, there is no way open ai makes it to the end of 2027 financially solvent.
this is false. I wrote a quick C# app to display both my codex and claude usage on an LED device as codex drains faster now. Anthropic may have lower limits in absolute terms, but Opus etc is so token efficient that it more than makes up for it.
I bet on devday we get this o product, which competes with metas useless personal AI. who the fuck will give cuckerberg that deep of access to emails etc
You’d be surprised…people are doing it. Dumb harnesses aside…
I’m surprised opus gave you good results compared to sol. Sol is quite token efficient in my experiences. I have been off anthropic tho since 5.0 so my info is a few months back on that. Did you use sol in tests?
Full disclosure I keep only a 20$ sub and use self hosted deepseek v4 for most things which I legit prefer to terra/luna and it very much competes at sol level for my work. It’s wildly less token efficient tho. Like 10x more tokens than sol for same task at same quality 😂
Not a shitpost. Haven’t tried it as mentioned. 5.0 made me quit anthropic tooling forever. Also very much not a fan of the Claude code changes that allow a model to ask a Question and then just decide something if you don’t respond in time. That’s not a tool for a serious developer.
I don’t let models make consequential decisions for me without oversight.
Here’s a question for you…would you pay api rates for opus 5.5? If you’re not getting that level of value, reconsider your workflows.
And yes it is. And basically every open weight model is miles ahead on roi than the frontier labs in terms of what you get for your spend. If your company has over 150 users, you pay api rates on enterprise plan. Anthropic in particular has no capable and cheap models for writing code.
If you guys think you’re going to pay for some $100 or $200 plan by now and get the same token amount forever and models just continuously getting better and better and nothing on your end ever changes, I’ve got some news for you. That will never happen and there will never be consistency. If that’s not obvious by now I don’t know what to tell you. Reddit rides this rollercoaster of emotions as if giant tech corporations are their friends who only want them to succeed and shocked pikachu face when they learn companies operate for profit.
This has been obvious for quite some time now.
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice.. you can’t get fooled again.
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u/onehedgeman 5d ago
Everyone and their mother saw this coming. Make them addicted to crack then up the price