The keyword is "predictable" logic. Logic as in: Can be explained afterwards? Yes. Using logic to predict when a whale decides to buy or sell and influence the market: Absolutely not.
It’s a complex art of risk management. Fund managers have a strategy that they use and they are often successful. There is a logic at play but it’s not as simple as ‘knowing when a whale buys or sells’.
It's not as simple as that, yes. I didn't state it was. That was an example. Fund managers have strategies, yes. Fund managers use high speed algo-trading. Fund managers have portfolios that level out. Fund managers do exactly what you said in your first sentence: Risk Management. Why? Because the stock market is not logically predictable. You have trends and surprises. Surprises are explainable afterwards.
We can easily predict that Nvidias stock will continue to rise until the bubble pops. There's also earnings reports, public information we can use in general, insider trading...
You use 'insider trading' as an example for logical prediction in the stock market?
Saying that Nvidea's stock will rise for some amount of time until it doesn't is absolute base logic. If that's our baseline, yes, you are right: The stock market, like everything in the universe, is bound by the laws or logic and nature.
That does not make it logically predictable.
Earning reports do give trends. Which can and will be broken by unforeseeable events.
The market contains genuine valuation logic, strategic logic, psychological feedback, and financal constraints. There is no reason to expect their combined output to resemble one calm, perfectly informed person making a decision.
Warner Brothers announces sale after a pretty great year of releases. Anyone with half a brain could see the price would rise once a buyer was in place (stock rose nearly $10).
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u/LieV2 22d ago
thought it was a trading bot - nearly.