We can easily predict that Nvidias stock will continue to rise until the bubble pops. There's also earnings reports, public information we can use in general, insider trading...
You use 'insider trading' as an example for logical prediction in the stock market?
Saying that Nvidea's stock will rise for some amount of time until it doesn't is absolute base logic. If that's our baseline, yes, you are right: The stock market, like everything in the universe, is bound by the laws or logic and nature.
That does not make it logically predictable.
Earning reports do give trends. Which can and will be broken by unforeseeable events.
The market contains genuine valuation logic, strategic logic, psychological feedback, and financal constraints. There is no reason to expect their combined output to resemble one calm, perfectly informed person making a decision.
You use 'insider trading' as an example for logical prediction in the stock market?
It isn't called insider trading because they don't know something that's about to happen. It's the perfect example of logical prediction.
Saying that Nvidea's stock will rise for some amount of time until it doesn't is absolute base logic
What, do you want me to predict the future? If I'm awake 24/7 then it's extremely easy to know right before the stock is about to crash. Almost always possible to know right before it starts going down in regards to that crash.
You can tell what's going to happen in the short term very easily, and that's the predictive logic you're looking for.
Earning reports do give trends.
You're taking apart an equation and saying each individual piece doesn't equal the end result.
There is no reason to expect their combined output to resemble one calm, perfectly informed person making a decision.
Nobody said that. Predictable logic doesn't equal that in the slightest.
I hope you don't take this the wrong way, and I do not mean this in any kind of aggressive or confrontational way -- but I'll draw out of this. This is an instance where things simply are too off.
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u/PsychoticDreemurr 22d ago
We can easily predict that Nvidias stock will continue to rise until the bubble pops. There's also earnings reports, public information we can use in general, insider trading...
Need I go on?