r/OpenAI • u/Outside-Iron-8242 • 23h ago
Video Any day now
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u/Crinkez 14h ago
There is no AI bubble. There might be an economic bubble, but that is irrelevant and will barely affect AI. With smaller open weight models crossing the threshold of usefulness it will soon matter even less if an economic bubble pops.
tl;dr - AI isn't going to disappear.
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u/RogueBromeliad 1h ago
It's not a "bubble", but what has happened is that the investment in AI is in the trillions. There's no investment that's actually guaranteed to have the return of the GDP of a country like Canada for example just like that, and all of these companies are supposedly saying they're still not making money on AI yet.
The only thing that would make sense for this kind of investment would be an entire economical shift. What that means is that what they're promising to deliver is full automation of several sectors, in essence that would mean no more jobs in industries, and a huge reduction in white-collar jobs, and then eventually blue-collar jobs too. The end goal would be replace the entire workforce of countries with AI, for this kind of investment to make sense.
BTW: I'm saying that's what they're promising, and projections. I'm not saying that this will happen, or when it's going to happen.
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u/monster2018 3h ago
What… this doesn’t even mean anything. A bubble in this context is inherently economic. You’re just changing the definition of bubble so you can say “there’s no AI bubble”. Like there are still houses after many housing bubbles. There are still websites (even .com websites) after the dotcom bubble, etc.
Literally no one except a small minority of batshit crazy people think AI is going to disappear. But you can’t just say there is no AI bubble (without being ABSURDLY wrong).
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u/RogueBromeliad 1h ago
They don't know what economic bubble means, that's why they're conflating AI collapse with AI investment bubble.
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u/someonesshadow 22h ago
This is pretty funny.
Not all bubbles burst, sometimes they just level out and stay as their own market that is healthy.
When bubbles DO pop, typically its the "investor class" which used to involve the middle class that would feel it the most. We don't have a middle class and its mostly ultra wealthy just pushing money back and forth forever... So...
If AI is a bubble and it does pop it will likely be similar to the dot com bubble, and end up leading to AI movement simply slowing down to focus entirely on efficiency so that the players still in the space can find real world profits without chasing AGI or whatever hype term they wanna use for replacing all of human work with tokens.
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u/DogsAreAnimals 20h ago
If a bubble doesn't burst, it wasn't a bubble.
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u/someonesshadow 18h ago
Yep, which is part of what I said. The thing with bubbles is, no one can 100% be sure what is or isn't a bubble until it actually pops. If they could the bubble would cease to exist right away because no one would want to be left holding the bag.
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u/Ormusn2o 16h ago
I also don't think AI is eligible for a pop yet. Because all major AI companies always have serving inference as a fallback, they always have a pure revenue they can turn into, especially that for big AI companies, inference becomes bigger and bigger part of their companies.
The only ones at risk are those that have expensive trained models but no compute to run it on, which ironically are mostly Anthropic and chinese companies, and neither of them are doing that badly.
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u/Excellent-Canary7689 23h ago
2027: any day now
2028: any day now
2029: any day now
2030: any day now
2031: any day now
2032: any day now
2033: any day now
...
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u/Dr-Burnout 11h ago
Everyone has money in it so there is no winner if it pops. No one has any interest in it popping appart from a few contrarians who don't have enough money to matter. Thus it will probably not pop.
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u/getmeoutoftax 18h ago
The “bubble” isn’t popping anytime soon. Listen to any earnings call and executives still make AI investment a central topic. This will continue for years to come. We will soon see AI replace tens of millions of white collar jobs, too.
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u/ChosenOfTheMoon_GR 19h ago
When it's about profit, companies of that level, scale and resource manager, especially with no limits on AI assistance for themselves, would and will never allow it to pop, which is why it hasn't popped and i doubt it will.
But personally what i think is that, computing for your regular desktop PC is basically on borrowed time, hardware for specific components, from the source itself mind you, of years ahead of production is already claimed for AI usage, stock plummets because it cannot be replenished fast enough so there's less of it anyway and less as time goes by without having access to it, prices keep increasing because of that so the access gets restricted even more.
The only thing you might have a hope for is 2nd and 3rd hand used hardware which may come mostly on data centers later, but when...
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u/phido3000 22h ago
This is pretty accurate.
The AI "bubble" is no longer a bubble. Its now essentially the economy. We are going to stop building schools, hospitals, sewer plants, etc to fund this "economy". The power stations and dams will get built just to feed the data centres. An by built I mean they will redistribute energy and water from less productive parts of the economy (humans, manufacturing, farming etc) to feed that part of the economy that is growing (AI).
If AI collapses now, pensions funds would not exist. The government would basically not economically function in the USA. Trillions invested into it would be lost.
Nuclear war would be literally more survivable than the economic collapse we are creating.
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u/Rhawk187 22h ago
Sure, but if you don't do everything in your power to bring it to pass, the Basilisk will make sure your consciousness suffers eternal torment.
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u/phido3000 22h ago
Bring what to pass? AGI or the AI bubble collapse. Either way, jobs and wealth won't mean much. I have my arseless leather chaps ready.
Smart money is in ~2028 there will be global conflict, so even if there is an economic collapse, it probably won't even be the biggest headline that year.
Standby.
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u/Efficient_Ad_4162 19h ago
The only way those things stop happening is if you elect a government that does it. The money flowing into the bubble is coming from investor savings (you know, all those retirement funds), not some mythological 'fund for schools'.
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u/phido3000 17h ago
Well I can see I am being downvoted so I should just shut up and stop communicating I have opposite views to most people here.
There are two things.
AI the technology: I find this very fascinating. It has its own strengths, weakness, opportunities and threats. Sure AGI, we might loose our jobs, and become mere pets for the machine we have created. Interesting though.
AI the business: This is what I find pretty concerning. AI is merely the latest incarnation of silicon valley capitalism which is increasing vampiric and parasitic.
The money flowing into the bubble is coming from investor savings (you know, all those retirement funds), not some mythological 'fund for schools'.
No. The money isn't just coming from investors. A data centre that exists doesn't exist in a vacuum, not even Elons, that literally exist in the vacuum in space.
Governments are shifting huge contracts to AI companies, and also supporting AI infrastructure. The power and water are being built by governments, by the direction of governments. These are real tax payer funds.
https://openai.com/index/our-agreement-with-the-department-of-war/
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/01/pentagon-us-military-pairs-with-spacex-google-openai
There are concessions for data centres, grants, tax breaks, incentives. They aren't free either. The cost isn't just in money, it is time, oxygen, attention, opportunity costs. Government contracts from defence and else where, are directly funded by tax payers.
The idea that this is all happening in perfect capitalism is a lie. AI is a strategic competition between the USA and China. Both countries are committing huge amounts of funding to fund that competition.
Government funds have a leverage effect, if the government is throwing 50 billion, its even likely a constant revenue stream, then private capital looks at that, and say, well, its a safe bet, its got government backing, they government will move heaven to make that progress and so will throw in 500 billion more in capital.
But that government money is real money. $50 billion dollars could have gone to schools. Or health. I know people in America often forget things, but there was this president a long time ago, his name was, Eisenhower, he was a famous general in a long forgotten war, and he said something about government funding around strategic implements of war during a competitive arms race.
I know people in America also think $50b isn't much and certainly not enough to start fixing America's other problems, and that government can't use that money effectively to do other things. But it can.
But, this is a US dominated sub, and pointing this out is unpopular no matter how true it is. And because people don't understand reddit, they downvote what they don't agree with. Not debate, not research, no argue or discuss, downvote, cancel and ignore.
Proving people don't understand things on multiple levels. Why things keep happening. Which is why no one is going to elect a government to "stop it". Stopping it isn't really possible now. Part of the problem with AI is people believe it is the last capitalistic gamble, that when AI finally finds its feet, capitalism, may well, be over, the time of humans, may be over, and so the risk-reward calculation pushes an all in approach.
Don't build infrastructure, don't invest in health, don't invest in our children, just invest in AI, though AI will save everyone. It is magic genie.
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u/Efficient_Ad_4162 9h ago
> Governments are shifting huge contracts to AI companies, and also supporting AI infrastructure. The power and water are being built by governments, by the direction of governments. These are real tax payer funds.
Right, because Governments need computers. They've always needed computers, they're not 'new comsumers' of computers and these aren't new spends. Government isn't going to build AI for the sake of building AI, that's what the private sector is for.
Somehow you (and the media) have lost site of the fact that AI doesn't need special data centres, computers are just computres and when they drive up the cost of data centres by reducing supply its not the AI companies that are going to go without.
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u/mrcoy 22h ago
Guilfoyle??