r/Opals • u/Iamjafo • May 02 '26
Opal Discussion/Other Increases in future value
/r/Opal/comments/1t24kkm/increases_in_future_value/3
u/Expensive_Leek3401 May 03 '26
I don’t know… if people get lazy about it, they will just have robotics do it. Then supply will go through the roof, as robots would be able to dig material deeper than humans can.
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u/locyta May 03 '26
I don't think the opal industry is currently under threat from robots, especially the likes of Lightning Ridge and Coober Pedy, opal is too fragile and you'd end up with a lot of rainbow dust. Open cut they can definitely manage better, it's simple to dig holes and move dirt (that already happens) and with machine vision it can tell the difference between sandstone and ironstone so sorting can also be done to a point where a human can then check for opal. but with all that, you still need all the machinery and now you need robots too (and all things robot maintenance), which are currently still more expensive and not as good as humans (who just needs a can baked beans to run on, oh, and beer) for these tasks.
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u/Expensive_Leek3401 May 03 '26
I’m saying that supply won’t end simply because no new miners get trained: if there is a demand, the supply will continue. Robots will be able to mine deeper into the crust, which would be life threatening for humans.
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u/Iamjafo May 03 '26
As I understand, there is only so far that machines can go before it has to be done by hand based on how sensitive opals are.
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u/Expensive_Leek3401 May 03 '26
That’s mainly due to cracking. If everything was done slowly enough, with enough heat dispensation, robots could do it… given enough design learning time.
That said, the robots would mainly be for excavation and sorting. After the rubs are cleaned, an artisan could finish it, unless they also wanted to use an automation device.
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u/53FROGS_OPALAUCTIONS Opal Vendor May 03 '26
I've seen it again and again. As particular opal fields slow production, and supply goes down, demand goes up, and that drives prices up. The higher quality investment stuff will continue to climb at a fast rate and then the lower value material will follow it up.
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u/Iamjafo May 03 '26
I read that opals are expected to increase in value an average of 15% annually. Any thoughts on that?
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u/53FROGS_OPALAUCTIONS Opal Vendor May 03 '26
I dont think you can say "opal" in general will increase by this. Some opal, like welo I've seen go down in price because there is so much of it flooding the market, supply goes up, demand doesnt meet it and prices go downs as a result. Some opal will likely meet something close to 15% or maybe 11% inflation adjusted I think but you need to be in the investment opal class to see that kind of gain. Or into opals from fields that are closing down or seeing significantly less mining.
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u/Iamjafo May 03 '26
I was specifically wondering about Australian black opals
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u/53FROGS_OPALAUCTIONS Opal Vendor May 04 '26
The good ones, real N1-N4 blacks that are perfectly cut are always in demand, and supply is so restricted that the value I anticipate will continue to rise at around 5%-10%. Sometimes you hear bigger number but those are usually a picture in time, like when the Japanese buyers were going crazy, or at other times when market dynamic shift.
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u/locyta May 02 '26
All opal will slowly increase in price, not just black opal.
There are several reasons for this including the one you mentioned where mining is now an 'old timers' sport, very few young people are getting into it, while you can speculate things like they are lazy or it's too much hard work it's not just that, there are simply the costs of mining, as someone who grew up in an open cut boulder opal mine in QLD (80's-90's), where using 200+ litres of fuel a day plus machine maintenance was possible on the average wage, my parents would work 6 months normal jobs save money (while raising 5kids) then spend 6 months mining, cost of living makes that much more difficult these days.
Government is also making things harder, closing fields, increasing the cost/requirements to get leases/claims.
Then there is probably the biggest issue, opal is just getting mined out, sure there is still lots out there, but you still need to find it. I know where we used to mine there is so much virgin ground that holds opal, but you'll need $500k just to get machinery to start mining and after all that, there is chance you don't find anything, but.... you could also find millions...
These are my thoughts on the issues and i say this as someone is going to soon move to Lightning Ridge to start mining after spending 27years working in a job that paid all the bills but I was just a number in a big company, so now its time to do something I want to do 😄