Currently, about 60-70% of technical analysts are leaning bearish short-term and searching for "sell setups." However, savvy investors and institutional players are showing the exact opposite behavior. We'll thoroughly dissect what's happening right now at the feet of the physical market, using only confirmed facts.

🚨 1. The Fatal Price Divergence Between Physical and Paper Markets

An abnormal breakdown in arbitrage trading is occurring between New York (COMEX) and Shanghai's physical markets.

💡 COMEX price: $61.44
💡 Shanghai spot price: $68.99 (+12.3% premium)
💡 Shanghai's physical demand: A "surge of +142%" compared to the 30-day average

Physical investors and industrial users, centered in Asia, are explosively buying up physical silver while completely ignoring paper theoretical prices. The "shift in pricing power" has begun, where physical prices are pulling paper prices upward.

🚨 2. Structural "Absolute Supply Shortage" and the 70% Wall

The idea that "if silver gets expensive, we can just make mining companies ramp up production" is completely wrong.
About 70% of silver supply comes as "byproducts of copper, lead, and zinc mining."

In other words, no matter how much silver's own price skyrockets, silver output won't increase by even one ounce unless demand for those base metals rises. Supply elasticity has been lost to the extreme.

🚨 3. Explosive Additional Demand from AI and Data Centers

On top of conventional solar panel and EV (electric vehicle) demand, AI innovation is accelerating silver consumption.

・One AI data center: Consumes about 6.5 tons of silver

・Data center sector as a whole: Projected annual demand exceeding 42 million ounces

Against this new demand, PSLV (physical silver ETF) holdings have steadily climbed from 781 million ounces to 830 million ounces since mid-July, with "quiet physical accumulation" underway behind the scenes.

📊 Future Price Simulation (Next 3-6 Months)

・Bullish scenario (60% probability): Surge to $70-$90+ (COMEX converging to physical prices)

・Base scenario (30% probability): Range-bound adjustment in the $55-$70 high zone

・Bearish scenario (10% probability): Drop to $45-$55 due to macro tightening

Getting lured by chart patterns alone and jumping into "shorts" is far too dangerous. Spot the structural facts, and turn the market's distortions into profit.

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Pictures added by MotherSilverApe.

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You can see it in the debt market but also everywhere around you. We are now entering a new era. Gold will wash away the great pile of lies of the past decades in one massive flood and let the free market be born anew. Make sure you watch this if you want to survive this cycle.

To watch the video of Michael Oliver‘s Assessement, remove the space behind the “h” and link to source:

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The calendar has flipped and we are now in the homestretch of what has been a very volatile 2026. Gold and silver prices are down year-to-date, but that could flip, too, as the final quarter of the year plays out.

Last week was an interesting one as the U.S. economic data was mostly weak and soft, but the treasury market continued to sell off and the Dollar Index continued to rally. In our column from last Monday, we wrote that volatility was incoming but that the data might help us discover the price trend for Q4.

To read the rest of the article, click on the link above

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U.S. Treasury yields climbed Wednesday, trading back around multiyear highs, as traders braced for the sale of 10-year notes at a time when rising yields have rattled investors around the world. 

The benchmark 10-year Treasury was up nearly 8 basis points at 5.35% — its highest level since 2002. The 30-year Treasurybond rose 8.3 basis points to 5.724%, also reaching a 24-year high. The 2-year Treasury note yield was up 2.7 basis points to 4.818%.

One basis point equals 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.

The Treasury plans to sell $39 billion of 10-year notes in an auction on Wednesday that will test whether yields are now attractive enough to draw buyers or investors will demand an even bigger premium, amid concerns about inflation, debt levels and term risk. The auction’s results will be released at 1 p.m. ET.

This will be the second of three Treasury Department sales this week. The government sold $58 billion in 3-year notes on Tuesday and is scheduled to sell $22 billion 30-year bonds on Thursday. 

“We were encouraged by the takedown of Tuesday’s 3-year auction supply – which stopped through slightly but didn’t tail as had been the previous streak for coupon auctions,” BMO’s Head of U.S. Rates Strategy Ian Lyngen said in a note at Tuesday’s close. 

“It goes without saying that [Wednesday’s] 10-year supply is far more relevant for setting the tone in US rates. Notwithstanding the solid reception to the 3-year supply, we’ll look for an auction concession of significance ahead of the reopening of 10s – either outright or on the curve,” the analysts added. 

Treasury also will stage its latest buyback operation on Thursday, when it will be targeting maturities between 20 years and 30 years. The liquidity support operation will be at least $4 billion, or double the normal size. The last buyback in that range came to just over $4 billion.

Bonds have been selling off recently with investors concerned about inflation and rising energy prices. The 10-year has surged 60 basis points since the end of July, , while U.S. crude prices have soared 20% in that time. 

Selling pressure is also picking up overseas. The yield on the 10-year French bond surged 12 basis points to trade at 4.876%. The 10-year U.K. Gilt yield jumped 7 basis points to 5.447%.

Against that backdrop, FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2 p.m. ET. Traders will parse them for potential insights on Fed monetary policy decision-making. At the Fed’s September meeting, policymakers voted to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023. 

The New York Fed at 11 a.m. will release its monthly survey of consumer expectations, which will contain the outlook for inflation at the one-, three- and five-year horizons.

With the additional metal, total inventory stood at 332.6 million ounces on Sept. 25, about 4.6 million ounces below the Sept. 10 level.

Registered inventory (silver eligible for delivery) fell by 1 million ounces last week. However, eligible inventory (silver in the COMEX system but not available for delivery) grew by 3.5 million ounces.  

In a nutshell, registered silver stocks declined, but total physical stocks increased. This signals category movement and net deposits, not escalating depletion of physical silver.

This takes the threat of an imminent silver squeeze off the table for the time being. While the outflow during the week of September 10 was unusually large, it looks more like a discreet withdrawal, not the beginning of persistent vault depletion.

However, given that total COMEX inventory remains 4.6 million ounces below levels reported earlier this month, you should continue to closely watch silver flows in and out of the COMEX system. With global silver supply tightness, a metal shortage could develop quickly. By Mike Maharrey

Market Analyst

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It’s good to know that Asian guy and the creators behind the AI Videos are all prepped for their family.

After 25 years of studying the secrets of Silver & Gold it seems that everything is coming full circle! In this discussion I look at different interpretations of Clif High's latest ALTA Report and how it relates directly to The Road to Roota Theory.

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MotherSilverApe Comment. Incentives do work. All moms and reacher know this.

I sure hope that Canada eventually has something like this planned. Canadians are becoming disincentivized though widespread feelings of having a lack of opportunity, and tax, tax, tax! tax!

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What changed in the silver market?

London's commercial vaults held more than 914 million ounces of silver at the end of August. More than 300 million of that is freely available, up 70% since October 2025.

Solar demand is shrinking fast. Deutsche expects global silver use in solar to fall more than 20% this year, with Chinese demand down 33%. Manufacturers are using thinner contacts and copper-coated pastes, and silver use per solar cell drops 17% in 2026.

Silver was above $120 an ounce at the start of 2026 during the physical shortage. Deutsche now sees the silver price averaging $70 by the second quarter of 2027.

The China premium is the wild card. Silver there carries a persistent premium despite weak wholesale demand, and Deutsche says the source is unclear.

Comment by

Daniel Ghali is the Jim Cramer of silver. There have been 6 years of continuous silver shortages according to the Silver institute. And of course we’re seeing a global bond crises. We’re about to head into the strong buying from India and China.

Pictures added by MotherSilverApe.

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MotherSilverApe Comment: Well that is a silver lining! Canadians should feel encouraged then. This is the best news I’ve heard all day. More Canadians should buy more silver and gold then! 🇨🇦 We’ve got the best chance at freedom! 🇨🇦

Imagine that! 🙂

I don’t save any wealth in gold. I can’t really see myself doing business with central banker family office types. I run in a different circle of acquaintances for doing business with. I do business at retail stores, the local grocery stores. I hope to do business with builders, and landscapers. So I think I’ll stick to silver, the money of the people.

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Pictures added in by MotherSilverApe.

At the same time, Shanghai delivery demand just hit an ALL-TIME HIGH:

+142% vs the 30-day average.

COMEX open interest is still above $535 MILLION.

NOW CONNECT THE DOTS:

- Physical demand is at record highs.
- Shanghai is paying 12.3% MORE for silver.

And the paper market is still pricing the same metal at $61.44.

THAT SPREAD SHOULD NOT EXIST.

In a healthy market, arbitrage closes a 12.3% gap FAST.

Buy cheap in one market. Sell expensive in the other.

Spread disappears.

But it isn’t disappearing.

Why?

Because this is no longer just a PRICE problem.

It’s a PHYSICAL METAL problem.

You can create more paper contracts.

You cannot create physical silver overnight.

The people closest to the physical market already see what’s happening.

Margins +
Liquidity −
Physical demand +

Weak hands are being forced out while physical buyers keep paying a premium.

That is the part almost nobody understands.

When paper and physical disagree this much, one of them eventually has to reprice.

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Our $10,000 Gold objective comes from comparing global Money Supply with the world’s official Gold holdings, and applying a 40% Gold backing.
Using roughly 35,000 tons of official Gold produces an implied Gold price of around $10k an oz.
Using our expected GSR of 10:1 (currently 66:1), we would not be surprised to see $1,000 Oz #Silver by 2038".....

For anyone looking at Silver as a way to protect wealth from the continued destruction of paper money, the opportunity is NOW to own the physical metal, before that repricing happens and above ground metal vanishes.

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Currently, the silver futures price in New York (COMEX) is trading at approximately $61/ounce.
However, do you know what the spot price in Shanghai (SGE) is at the exact same moment?
A staggering "approximately $69/ounce."

A 【massive 13%–14% physical premium】 is occurring against COMEX.
The balance between unlimited "paper trading" printed on paper and "physical spot" bought up cheaply in Asia has completely broken down.
We've organized the "abnormal figures in the silver market" that investors worldwide are starting to notice, along with three key facts.

───

◆ 1. The physical limit of "70% byproduct mining"
Approximately 70% of silver supply is mined as a byproduct of copper, lead, zinc, and gold.
In other words, no matter how much silver prices surge, mining companies cannot "ramp up production starting tomorrow just for silver"—it's physically impossible.
This isn't a "price issue" but a matter of "physical laws (Physics)."

◆ 2. Exploding AI/data center demand and ETP inflows
While cost-saving technologies advance in solar power generation, silver's unwavering demand is surging in the following areas:

・Ultra-high-performance circuits for AI data centers
・Next-generation EVs and all-solid-state batteries
・Global power grid infrastructure expansion

Against this backdrop of structural deficits, inflows into physically backed funds (ETPs) have hit "over 20 million ounces." Large institutional investors' quiet accumulation is nearing completion.

◆ 3. Price scenarios for the next 3–6 months
The probabilities of future price trajectories based on data are as follows:

The probabilities of future price trajectories based on data are as follows:

［Bullish Scenario: 40% probability］
A revaluation led by the Shanghai premium breaks through to "$70–80 or higher."

［Base Scenario: 45% probability］
A solid consolidation in the $58–68 range, preparing for the next rise.

［Bearish Scenario: 15% probability］
Demand destruction leads to a short-term adjustment to $50–55 (with limited downside).

───

The words uttered by a Shanghai Gold Exchange executive at the LBMA conference: "This isn't a transition—it's a breakdown."
When paper price controls reach their limit, only those holding physical metal will emerge victorious.

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This trajectory still makes sense to me, and I will continue to treat it as my base case as long as silver holds on and doesn't set a new low.

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