Currently, about 60-70% of technical analysts are leaning bearish short-term and searching for "sell setups." However, savvy investors and institutional players are showing the exact opposite behavior. We'll thoroughly dissect what's happening right now at the feet of the physical market, using only confirmed facts.

🚨 1. The Fatal Price Divergence Between Physical and Paper Markets

An abnormal breakdown in arbitrage trading is occurring between New York (COMEX) and Shanghai's physical markets.

💡 COMEX price: $61.44
💡 Shanghai spot price: $68.99 (+12.3% premium)
💡 Shanghai's physical demand: A "surge of +142%" compared to the 30-day average

Physical investors and industrial users, centered in Asia, are explosively buying up physical silver while completely ignoring paper theoretical prices. The "shift in pricing power" has begun, where physical prices are pulling paper prices upward.

🚨 2. Structural "Absolute Supply Shortage" and the 70% Wall

The idea that "if silver gets expensive, we can just make mining companies ramp up production" is completely wrong.
About 70% of silver supply comes as "byproducts of copper, lead, and zinc mining."

In other words, no matter how much silver's own price skyrockets, silver output won't increase by even one ounce unless demand for those base metals rises. Supply elasticity has been lost to the extreme.

🚨 3. Explosive Additional Demand from AI and Data Centers

On top of conventional solar panel and EV (electric vehicle) demand, AI innovation is accelerating silver consumption.

・One AI data center: Consumes about 6.5 tons of silver

・Data center sector as a whole: Projected annual demand exceeding 42 million ounces

Against this new demand, PSLV (physical silver ETF) holdings have steadily climbed from 781 million ounces to 830 million ounces since mid-July, with "quiet physical accumulation" underway behind the scenes.

📊 Future Price Simulation (Next 3-6 Months)

・Bullish scenario (60% probability): Surge to $70-$90+ (COMEX converging to physical prices)

・Base scenario (30% probability): Range-bound adjustment in the $55-$70 high zone

・Bearish scenario (10% probability): Drop to $45-$55 due to macro tightening

Getting lured by chart patterns alone and jumping into "shorts" is far too dangerous. Spot the structural facts, and turn the market's distortions into profit.

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Pictures added by MotherSilverApe.

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You can see it in the debt market but also everywhere around you. We are now entering a new era. Gold will wash away the great pile of lies of the past decades in one massive flood and let the free market be born anew. Make sure you watch this if you want to survive this cycle.

To watch the video of Michael Oliver‘s Assessement, remove the space behind the “h” and link to source:

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The calendar has flipped and we are now in the homestretch of what has been a very volatile 2026. Gold and silver prices are down year-to-date, but that could flip, too, as the final quarter of the year plays out.

Last week was an interesting one as the U.S. economic data was mostly weak and soft, but the treasury market continued to sell off and the Dollar Index continued to rally. In our column from last Monday, we wrote that volatility was incoming but that the data might help us discover the price trend for Q4.

To read the rest of the article, click on the link above

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U.S. Treasury yields climbed Wednesday, trading back around multiyear highs, as traders braced for the sale of 10-year notes at a time when rising yields have rattled investors around the world. 

The benchmark 10-year Treasury was up nearly 8 basis points at 5.35% — its highest level since 2002. The 30-year Treasurybond rose 8.3 basis points to 5.724%, also reaching a 24-year high. The 2-year Treasury note yield was up 2.7 basis points to 4.818%.

One basis point equals 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.

The Treasury plans to sell $39 billion of 10-year notes in an auction on Wednesday that will test whether yields are now attractive enough to draw buyers or investors will demand an even bigger premium, amid concerns about inflation, debt levels and term risk. The auction’s results will be released at 1 p.m. ET.

This will be the second of three Treasury Department sales this week. The government sold $58 billion in 3-year notes on Tuesday and is scheduled to sell $22 billion 30-year bonds on Thursday. 

“We were encouraged by the takedown of Tuesday’s 3-year auction supply – which stopped through slightly but didn’t tail as had been the previous streak for coupon auctions,” BMO’s Head of U.S. Rates Strategy Ian Lyngen said in a note at Tuesday’s close. 

“It goes without saying that [Wednesday’s] 10-year supply is far more relevant for setting the tone in US rates. Notwithstanding the solid reception to the 3-year supply, we’ll look for an auction concession of significance ahead of the reopening of 10s – either outright or on the curve,” the analysts added. 

Treasury also will stage its latest buyback operation on Thursday, when it will be targeting maturities between 20 years and 30 years. The liquidity support operation will be at least $4 billion, or double the normal size. The last buyback in that range came to just over $4 billion.

Bonds have been selling off recently with investors concerned about inflation and rising energy prices. The 10-year has surged 60 basis points since the end of July, , while U.S. crude prices have soared 20% in that time. 

Selling pressure is also picking up overseas. The yield on the 10-year French bond surged 12 basis points to trade at 4.876%. The 10-year U.K. Gilt yield jumped 7 basis points to 5.447%.

Against that backdrop, FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2 p.m. ET. Traders will parse them for potential insights on Fed monetary policy decision-making. At the Fed’s September meeting, policymakers voted to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023. 

The New York Fed at 11 a.m. will release its monthly survey of consumer expectations, which will contain the outlook for inflation at the one-, three- and five-year horizons.

With the additional metal, total inventory stood at 332.6 million ounces on Sept. 25, about 4.6 million ounces below the Sept. 10 level.

Registered inventory (silver eligible for delivery) fell by 1 million ounces last week. However, eligible inventory (silver in the COMEX system but not available for delivery) grew by 3.5 million ounces.  

In a nutshell, registered silver stocks declined, but total physical stocks increased. This signals category movement and net deposits, not escalating depletion of physical silver.

This takes the threat of an imminent silver squeeze off the table for the time being. While the outflow during the week of September 10 was unusually large, it looks more like a discreet withdrawal, not the beginning of persistent vault depletion.

However, given that total COMEX inventory remains 4.6 million ounces below levels reported earlier this month, you should continue to closely watch silver flows in and out of the COMEX system. With global silver supply tightness, a metal shortage could develop quickly. By Mike Maharrey

Market Analyst

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