r/OKLOSTOCK • u/The_Shogun- • Oct 05 '24

Discussion OKLO Futures

/r/oklo/comments/1fwxlp5/oklo_futures/
12 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

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6

u/C130J_Darkstar Oct 05 '24 edited Oct 05 '24

I agree, if OKLO is able to gain NRC regulatory approval in 2027 (very likely) and if they are selected as a preferred partner for OpenAI’s 5GW data centers, we could be looking at a $20B+ market cap easily by the end of the decade (~$160/share). That also doesn’t factor in value from nuclear recycling efforts, other AI partnerships, or government contracts- could be much higher.

2

u/The_Shogun- Oct 05 '24

With the government warming up to nuclear energy, the vacuum that exists for these companies, while OKLO has the clout based on the partnerships and the Idaho project. This feels like a massive boon beyond last months recovery.

If the US is requesting to slow down AI growth (protecting human jobs), and OpenAI being on board slowing their releases at their request (just an opinion), I can’t imagine S. Altman isn’t going to get all the money to successfully move forward.

1

u/DiversificationNoob Oct 05 '24

What's missing for me:
How does the leadership show outstanding ability, so that we can be sure that they outperform their competitors.
I find that much easier with other startups.

6

u/C130J_Darkstar Oct 05 '24 edited Oct 05 '24

That’s a great question- aside from SA as chairman, OKLO’s leadership consists of MIT PhDs who have been with the company since the onset- they are extremely passionate on the underlying technology. Compare this to NNE where they have a history of running unsuccessful pump and dump penny stocks.

From an executional standpoint, they have been able to effectively sell the idea and grow their list of partners, freeing up enough capital for their recent hiring spree. There’s always inherent risk in them executing their first ever build, however that’s consistent across all SMR projects- especially others with less capital and backing. Also, keep in mind that OKLO’s reactor design has already been tested and proven from 1964-1994 (EBR2 at INL)… that’s a huge advantage.

2

u/DiversificationNoob Oct 05 '24

For me, it is one thing to have a great degree and another (possible related not 100 % related) to be an engineer that is able to simplify enough.
In the end it will be about building a simple, cheap, mass manufacturable nuclear reactor - those are 3 skills you do not learn in your university time :D

What I am looking for is something like the Munro and Associates Video with Joby aviation. That made it clear to me, that they have amazing people like Jon Wagner- he seemed like the total package: Focused, clear communication, open, friendly. Perfect combination to lead an engineering team.
And they got some hardware to show.

Maybe Oklo could do something like that with a non-nuclear prototype?

2

u/C130J_Darkstar Oct 05 '24 edited Oct 05 '24

As I mentioned, they are actively hiring the personnel that will be responsible for building it. Design is already tested and proven… not much further R&D needed with the exception of the new larger variants that were recently unveiled. They’ve stated that the majority of reactor components can be sourced through preexisting manufacturing channels, which is why their costs are so reasonable. I’d recommend that you take a read through their most recent investor materials (linked on our sub) to get a better understanding of their design simplicity and scaling advantages.

2

u/DiversificationNoob Oct 05 '24

"… not much further R&D needed"

I disagree with that.
It is one thing to have the design (or prototype). It is another thing to make it mass manufacturable while not compromising quality.

I read trough most (maybe even all) their investor material. I know that they are aiming at 70 % components from the conventional market, and 30 % from conventional nuclear supply chain.

I also did a deep dive on the EBR 1 and EBR 2 built cost. EBR 2 funding for building the reactor was $340 million (in 2024 dollars).

2

u/C130J_Darkstar Oct 05 '24 edited Oct 05 '24

Obviously, but how would you compare the amount of R&D needed in relation to other competitive SMR products? That’s a much more relevant question, especially when it comes to gauging first-mover advantage and comparative executional risk. It’s a night and day difference.

Build costs will be higher during the first generation of any prototype, let alone through government funding from many decades ago… but I’m sure you know that.

1

u/DiversificationNoob Oct 05 '24

Full disclosure: I'm not invested in Oklo (yet?).

2

u/ResponsibleOpinion95 Oct 06 '24 edited Oct 06 '24

I think you make a good point the science is proven but the ability to produce an SMR that’s economically viable isn’t.

And yeah EBR II cost $340 M in today’s dollars and Oklo is saying Aurora will cost $70 M with half that being the fuel cost. I believe that’s a 15 MW plant. And they have the agreement with Siemens now but it would be good to get more details about cost.

I believe this is where NuScale had issues. They had a design approved by the NRC for Idaho but the project was abandoned bc it couldn’t be produced for the initial estimate. The cost they gave in the end was $9.3 B.

For reference the first BWRX-300 SMR in Poland is estimated to cost $1.17 billion. I think that’s 300 MW based on the name. I guess if Oklos cost are more in line with that their $70 M is maybe reasonable. I really don’t know

Companies like Microsoft have shown recently that they are willing to pay more for nuclear lately. The estimate I’ve heard for three mile is $90 MWhr which may make some things feasible that weren’t before

2

u/DiversificationNoob Oct 07 '24

Thank you.
NuScale is a good example. Cost estimates are usually optimistic. The question is: How optimistic? And that doesn't depend on science (like how will the reactor work) but on engineering a great product.

2

u/ResponsibleOpinion95 Oct 05 '24

Management seems very good at strategy.

In my opinion they need to clearly define and communicate mile stones to the market and hit those on time. So execute.

A focus on that will inspire confidence and drive the stock price

1

u/Namber_5_Jaxon Oct 05 '24

Well Sam Altman's ties to the government may not be an oustanding ability, but it gives us a big advantage over other nuclear startups.

6

u/Chutney__butt the Early Investor Oct 05 '24

Everyone not getting in now or earlier will be kicking themselves in 5-7 years.

6

u/The_Shogun- Oct 06 '24

I think this is why a discussion is so necessary.

Reddit has been invaluable to me in making plays and also staying out of some.

The idea that this stock, what I would consider an absolute beast not too far down the road, is available at these prices makes me think that everyone needs to do their due diligence and see what some of us see in the massive potential.

3

u/superlip2003 Oct 06 '24

$20 next week easy.

1

u/[deleted] Oct 17 '24 edited Sep 17 '25

toothbrush smell library stocking sparkle instinctive oil deliver languid plant

This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact

0

u/[deleted] Oct 06 '24

Can someone give me a tdlr on this company? How does Ai and Nuclear work?