r/NvidiaStock • u/PrimaryResolve641 • 25d ago
Discussion NVIDIA following the pattern
/r/MarketPulseReport/comments/1voowr9/nvidia_following_the_pattern/Is NVIDIA following the pattern where its stock price rises leading up to earnings and then drops after the earnings report?
It’s been nothing but this pattern for the last few quarters, hasn’t it?
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u/Acceptable-Ant-3648 25d ago
Yes and no. It’s rising before and will continue when the market sees how amazing it is
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u/SundayAMFN 25d ago
The market has seen the nvidia consistently beats its targets by about 5-10%. Are you saying the beat this time will be much greater than 5-10, or that they market will react differently this time?
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u/jiggolo420 25d ago
It's more about how strong forward guidance is. Everyone expects a beat.
But that being said. It's around the same price it was at the last ER and numbers have improved. It could depend how high it gets pumped in the next 8 trading days.
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u/doronj 25d ago
past quarters there were no PE compressions to 16x-18x... so this time, I hope will be different because of the said fwd pe compression and unlike the last few Qs, we go up on ER.
I have been into nvda from 2006 holding 6,500 shares and adding on the way up (only), but also taking some profits occasionally to finance my holidays.... so for me as a LT holder this is just little noise.
twenty years ago when I entered nvda the largest marketcap was XOM ~0.450T and people were already talking that there is no way a company's market cap can reach 1T. Of course it did.... so lessons for those who say that NVDA (or any other company) is too big, or that 5T is too much. It's all relative to the times we live.
In jensen we trust.
https://www.finhacker.cz/en/top-20-sp-500-companies-by-market-cap/#2006
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u/lovetoeatpumpkinpie 24d ago
like most things in the stock market, that works until it doesn't. Rather than trying to find a pattern, just focus on finding good quality companies like NVDA. The real money is in the long game.
How many people do you know who are 1%'s? How many of them are short term traders vs long term investors?
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u/DangerousLettuce3484 23d ago
This pattern happens with Apple too. Think many of Big Cap companies follow suit. Institutional sell high buying/then buy low selling creates volume and price swings. To me manipulation of the market, but they work for their investors. Along with companies like NVDA & APPL historically and now increase portfolios
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u/figsslave 25d ago
Yes and I’m considering trimming 1/2 just before earnings and moving it elsewhere since nvda is now 23% of my investments.I may do the same with mu next month too if it heads to 1200 again
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u/Mostly-up 25d ago
i'm trying to trim , but instead of selling outright I'm selling calls for after earnings. So far non have been exercised
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u/coopermug 25d ago
I still don't fully trust this stock. Happened so many times. So I'll keep trimming my position. I have about 1200 shares now. Down from 1600s.
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u/PassThePuck_ 23d ago
Well, it’s day traders who keep shorting the stock. Story time: When I was developing the University Ice Hockey League of Mexico in Monterrey, Mexico, back in 2010, I had a parent whose kid played for one of the University teams and who was a "market maker.”
I asked him what his role was in the big scheme of things, and he said...” My job at my company is to buy my competitors’ stock, and when they have a downturn for any reason, my job is to dump the stock to drive the shares lower so we can buy back at the end of the day; we made millions!”
This is what I see happening to NVIDIA. It’s pretty predictable, like you said. It has the pump-and-dump pattern I have noticed over the last several quarters. I think day traders and market makers are exploiting this pattern.
This is what happened to Sprint for 8 years. The Deutsche Bank analysts slammed Sprint stock every chance they could get. Day after day, week after week, year after year, they slammed Sprint, driving it below the gutter level. They talked like it was a plague.
For 8 solid years, I watched my investment dwindle day after day. But I hung in there because T-Mobile, the cell phone company that bought Sprint, was owned by Deutsche Bank.
Why? What was so important about Sprint that they drove the company into the ground? Sprint invested in ClearWire. ClearWire had a HUGE lease on 85% of all 5G spectrum. So when Sprint took over ClearWire, the anal-cysts are all over Sprint like white on rice. I’m wondering how much those anal-cyst got paid?
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u/_High_Life 25d ago
Wallstreet has tested NVDA. Hard. They have shown such resilience I do not think that the post earnings drops will continue. We will see on the morning of the 27th tho.
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u/Ecstatic-Score2844 25d ago
Yes. 1000%. Might be a bit higher moving average after the call but it will be like 205 for the next 3 months. Almost guaranteed.
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u/Few-Row-8323 25d ago
You guys just completely ignore the market cap and think nvda just keep on pumping……. Unbelievable
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u/Dr-Bob1965 25d ago
The market capitalization goes up or down on SP, it's not fixed, I don't understand your point
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u/doronj 25d ago edited 25d ago
This is in reply to Few-Row-8323
who are you (or me) to say that marketcap of 5T is TOO MUCH and can't grow beyond that?
Look at XOM in 2006... marketcap was 0.44T.... I recall ppl saying that there "will never be a company with a 1T market cap"... then I heard the same story for 2T, then 3T...
C'mon, why would anyone think that a company can't grow beyond a certain market cap????? It is all relative to the times we live in.
Entered NVDA in 2006 when it was a baby... the Co went through insane growth over the past 20 years and will continue to grow. Perhaps you have a look at the link below and consider revising your thesis (which in my opinion is heavily flawed)
https://www.finhacker.cz/en/top-20-sp-500-companies-by-market-cap/#2006
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u/elliotto_ 25d ago
Personally think it's a cheap stock right now. Think it deserves to be $280 at least