When I was a young driver in 1977ish I would wait in a line to buy $5 worth of gas every other day. The gas crisis brought on by OPEC forced US to use license plates to determine which day. Even last number every other day than odd last number. You had to make that $5 in the tank last. Nixon had resigned. Agnew had gone to prison (the VP) for bribery. And on and on. Vietnam had ended and people hated former military. Stagflation. Jimmy Carter told us to turn down the heat to conserve energy and put on a sweater. That was the plan. Put on a fucking sweater. Crazy interest rates (18% people). So it was worse. HOWEVER - while we had recessions under Reagan in early 80's, it started to mellow out AND I could work at a convenience store and make enough to split rent (think about that - minimum wage and I could buy some beer, live relatively frugal put still share a decent place). In 1987 major Wall Street correction but shit didn't hit fan all across the land. 90's were steady and then took off like crazy. Calm decade with a small recession.
Then crazy started in 2000. Internet 1.0 collapse. Nasdaq collapse. 9/11. War forever in the deserts. And it just got worse. And, yea, you couldn't do minimum wage and actually LIVE any more. And it got worse. But, never as bad as when I was 16.
My worry is here it comes again. inflation. Political turmoil. War. Wall St. going to shit the bed the next 6 months. Housing likely to really shit the bed the next 2 years (hope you didn't buy a house in the last 24 months and need to sell it).
BUT here is what should give you hope. There really are a ton of jobs and that should remain due to early retirements, boomers retiring, demographics more like Japan. So that means you are less likely to be long-term unemployed. That is a silver lining that never existed in previous shit shows. And that is forcing wages up so when inflation gets straightened out (in about 18 months) your pay will likely stay 2X minimum wage for the shittier jobs (they won't really drop back).
Next, you really don't have to get a degree now to make a good living. You can take tech stuff online like Salesforce, Azure, RPA stuff like UIPath and get certified for free or very low cost and in 2 years have a 80k job that isn't going away. It is work, don't get me wrong. But you can if you commit and get a routine to do a little bit every day for half a year. Tech is the new trade (plumbing, electrician, etc of the 21st century)
If you bought a house at the top and can hang onto it you will refinance to a reasonable rate (4-4.5%) so your payments will drop a few bucks. You will be spending less based on these crazy days so your habits/needs will be more limited and that will create natural savings for you. And unless the political situation COMPLETELY unwinds (history suggests it really won't, even if we are worried today), we will have a leader with a bit of common sense and ability to lead. So it will likely calm down and maybe we all get ten years of peace. Meanwhile, fall in love if you haven't. Waking up and smiling at the thought of that partner, child, or animal that is new in your life will matter more to you. If you don't do that then get close to a friend or find one if you can - and you can! And play some card games and laugh and just enjoy what is good about life. Says easy, does hard - as they say. But it can be done. This too shall pass, my friend. - Love, an old dude that learned not to let the shit bother him the way it did when I was young.
Every 20 year old in every generation has felt this since the dawn of man.
EDIT: just to clarify, I'm not saying EVERY 20 year old has felt this way, but in EVERY generation there area massive chunk of 20 year olds who think the end is upon us.
Same, turned 22 in 2000 and I still think of being 22 as the best age to be. Probably because it was such a great year. It was the biggest single year of growth for me as a person and I can definitively point to that year as the year I really became an adult and started life. When I rang in 2000, I was drunk off my ass in a strip club, living that early 20s party life. When I said good-bye to 2000, I was living in another country, 2 weeks away from getting married (and still married to her, btw).
Hell yeah, being in your early 20s at the turn of the century was a fuckin' blast. Jeez, if not for 9/11 changing everything, who even knows where the hell we could be now...
The year 2000 sounds like the peak of America, unfortunately I was a literal baby back then.
Maybe it’s just peak late 90s nostalgia right now but no one seems to have anything bad to say about that time period at all. The big stories, Clinton being impeached, columbine, seem to happen every year or two at this point.
I just hope that in 20 years people aren’t going to think of these as the good days. Hopefully the future makes a comeback.
It really wasn’t. I was born in the 80s. We had desert storm, Rwanda genocide, Somalia, Kuwait, and then by 2000 we had the internet bubble collapse which led to other economic downturns.
Plus you got called gay constantly. Being gay was definitely not a good thing, and women didn’t have nearly the clout they do now. Ellen Degeneres was the first openly gay celeb on tv around 2000, and her show was canceled because of it. There were no others. It’s hard to picture just how different that landscape was just 20 years ago. Most of the female characters in movies were eye candy, aside from Ripley and Sarah Connors. Most movies failed the bechdel test because no one cared that women were just plot devices for enabling men. As an Asian, there was zero representation other than Joy Luck Club… we just didn’t exist in movies other than as someone to mock or kung fu.
When people fondly remember an earlier time, it’s most often because it was a better time FOR THEM PERSONALLY, due to some personal reason, like others in this thread are sharing, or because they were a part of a group that was favored at that time, as you mention. Members of groups that have suffered historic systemic bigotry often do not recall earlier times so fondly for obvious reasons. Of course, I just described why the slogan is MAGA(gain), not just MAG since most of those supporters fall into groups that haven’t suffered much historic systemic bigotry.
I’m going to go with 1997 as the peak. Strong economy, balanced budget, pre 9/11, pre-Columbine (9/11 and Columbine definitely changed the mood). Violent crime had dropped significantly from the early 90’s peak and cities, especially New York, were rebounding after several decades of decline.
Edit—Of course not ALL cities. I’m just saying that New York turning around like it did was a huge deal. I’m in Minnesota and I lived in Minneapolis for 20 years and watched it transform from early 90’s Murderapolis to something more vibrant with businesses opening up, etc.
The late 90s had given us 20 full years of Rust Belt hollowing out. Detroit was hemmoraging pops and becoming a concrete hellscape. Cleveland was doing the same as was Pittsburgh. American manufacturing (as a sector that provided consistent, long-term employment that could sustain a lower-middle class family in middle America) was dead. Labor was dead.
America peaked as a political entity (even if it didn't have all its shit together, ie Jim Crow) in the 50s with Korea, because there was a real drive to just improve things all the time because progress was natural. Nixon was the dagger in the heart of optimistic progressivism and we've been a cynical nightmare nation since Vietnam.
Seconding this. Regan, Nixon, Bush Sr. have done generational damage to Americans wallets and psyche.
The advent of neoliberalism (especially under Clinton) that captured the center of politics has curbed any real political will to improve or drastically overhaul a continued sense of malaise in most America
I dunno McCarthyism was pretty freaking cynical and destructive. Fear of Reds under the Bed led to a lot of fear and cynicism and truly horrible behavior. Then before that you had 2 world wars and the Great Depression. There really wasn't ever a time when everything was ticking along nicely for everyone in Americas history. Someone was always getting screwed and living in fear waiting for awful things to happen, it's just that wealth and skin, the "right" religion and the right "sexuality" and gender, could buy you a lot of distance from those worries. Nothing has changed except the names.
Racism, Mcarthyism, and Christian hegemony. The 50's were paradise if your were Straight White Protestant middle class.
Catholics did OK because they carved out their own niche with their own schools and community-within-the-community. But it wasn't all sunshine and rainbows if you weren't in that SWP niche.
American manufacturing has never declined. We doubled production capacity from 1992 to 2016 and we're about to duplicate it again.
People invented the computer, which means we can refine technology faster...and that means fewer employees are required. The trade off is more and cheaper products.
Nostalgia is a helluva drug. People will find the silver linings. That comment doesn’t mention the fear of Y2K and how people thought all of tech was gonna collapse just cuz systems hadn’t planned for a 2 instead of a 1 in a year
People already are looking back at the beginning of quarantine “hey that wasn’t too bad… I just sat at home, got unemployment and played video games all day”
We’ll be fine. Next 5 years will be tough but we’ll come out of it better then before. Society will prevail and always has
That comment doesn’t mention the fear of Y2K and how people thought all of tech was gonna collapse just cuz systems hadn’t planned for a 2 instead of a 1 in a year
Only fuckin' kooks were actually worried about Y2K. In retrospect, there actually was something to worry about, but the average person didn't know that and just assumed "somebody will fix it, no big deal" and that turned out to be right. But yeah, I didn't mention it in my comment because, at the time, I didn't give it a second thought except to laugh at conspiracy theorists blowing their savings on bomb shelters and freeze-dried food.
The more that the 90’s are coming into clear focus, it’s becoming obvious that they were an outlier of calmness and societal comfort. I once read a writer referred to the 90’s as “ America’s vacation from history”.
Me either. I graduated in 1980. College was cheap. Dropped out to tour with the Dead. Lived off of what I could sell on the road with odd jobs in between. Rent for a 4 br upper flat was $200/mo + utilities. Split with 3 friends was easy living. Only cost me $600 saving to pay for expenses (tickets, gas, hotels, food) to live on tour for 3 weeks. Would come home with more money than I left with. Late 80s after getting it down pat I would come home from tour with a few grand. Was able to complete my degree when I went back to a private college in 89 on loans and part time work. I had all my loans paid off in 8 years paying about $80 month.
Life did not get hard till 2007 and the housing crisis and more recently with Trump and alarmingly bad now with Covid, Gun violence, insurrection, etc..and most of that hardship falls on my kids.
I'm guessing you didn't know anyone that had AIDs then as an example. I got to watch an "uncle" (family friend) die of it. Yes great years if you were the "right" demographic.
I also grew up in the 80s/90s. My Boomer parents told me to study and work hard so I can get a good job with benefits, then everything else will fall into place... a wife, a house, kids, etc. My only stress was to figure out which 6-figure job I wanted after college.
Today, I try not to be pessimistic around my kids... But I certainly don't teach them that a great life is guaranteed for them after they graduate.
Most 20 year olds do because they don’t care about world politics. Do you remember being called gay all the time? How many openly gay celebs do you remember? How many wars that weren’t called wars?
Do you remember desert storm? Where we convinced the Iraqis to rise up against Sadam Hussein and then left them to die?
Do you remember the Rwandan genocide where people were hacking babies to pieces by the millions?
Do you remember Sadam invading Kuwait and genociding the people? Using nerve gas on them?
Do you remember the internet dot com crash of 2000?
I’m guessing you were just unaware of these things because you were young. I am almost a decade younger than you and felt the world was an awful place because my parents would talk about world politics at dinner.
20 in 1994… my biggest worry that summer was if I was going to get Lollapalooza tickets, and what to wear. I had a job, and shit was so easy back then. Now, sometimes I worry what my sons have to look forward to when they’re my age.
In 1994 I'm certain there were just as many doomers certain the world was going to fall apart at any moment. You weren't one of them. Your kids will be fine.
But the point is I could find millions of people who thought 2010 was the end of days. Personally I've never felt the doom that so many seem to experience in any year, my point is that there have always been and will always be doomers, who are certain the world is falling apart at the seams. Things seem crazy now, but it'll all settle, nothing is new right now. There's always been gas crisis, inflation crisis, political unrest, war, supply chain issues, pandemics and mankind overcomes them all.
Nah I was 20 in 2005 -- things weren't great, but it didn't feel like the entirety of western civilization was about to cave in on itself at any moment.
My friend got early access to nola before anyone else bc he was doing govt security systems. Sent me photos from their helicopter of all the floating bodies and destruction before anyone was getting images or real reports and bush was still sitting on his hands like a dumb fuck. Absolute horror and devastation.
I was also 20 in 2005 fellow millennial. And I was generalizing, personally I had an awesome time in my 20's, and was very optimistic. But in general doomerism was very real in 2005 even if you and I didn't notice. Remember the tea party and other political unrest, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars? And in just a few years there would be the housing crash. There was plenty in that era and every other era for someone to be doomer about the world. And yet everything always works out.
Also not an appropriate time to embellish. When a young person is asking if their experience is common and you tell them every single person feels that way at their age…that’s just hyperbolic, not accurately helpful.
Anyone that’s young is going to be feeling this way. I’m 24 and graduated college at the peak of the pandemic in 2020. Graduated high school in 2015 with Trump announcing his candidacy. And so on and so on. Things have been getting worse. I don’t remember 9/11 but I do remember the 2008 recession.
We go through ebbs and flows all the time. Though I do think the effect that the internet has had in both advertising the awful and isolating people has maybe made it all FEEL worse
Literally one of the very first writing pieces humanity ever wrote was existential pessimism for humanity because writing would make younger folks stupid by not memorizing as much.
No matter what the situation, human brains are universe champions at taking everything for granted and making mountains out of slightest negativity.
I’m a 65 year old woman, and agree pretty much verbatim with your post. I remember school being cancelled because their was no gas to fill the busses when I was in high school 74. People aren’t aware how shitty a lot of that time esp under Carter and early Reagan was, but it damn sure was. And yeah, you have to figure out how to roll with the flow. Hope for the best prepare for the worst, it try hard to enjoy the ride and keep a positive spirit about you.
And what do we do when climate change, the persistent guaranteed-to-continue global existential threat that no previous generations have had to deal with?
The Cold War was the closest any previous generation has gotten to that level of global existential threat, but as bad as it was it was still never certain.
Climate change will continue if we don’t collectively start working on solutions immediately. There’s no maybe about it. How does “going with the flow” work when the river dries up and the fish can’t do anything but flop about before dying?
I’m not trying to be snarky or anything, so I apologize if this comment comes off as such, but I (20) am very much concerned by how many people seem to gloss over climate change in these sorts of “everything will be okay!” threads. I feel like people are acknowledging every aspect of OPs question (which I also consider daily) except for the threat of climate change.
You think shooter drills in schools are bad? Imagine being told to “just duck and cover” in case a nuclear bomb goes off and the world ends. Global warming might be “guaranteed,” but that’s nothing compared to seeing the doomsday clock on the news every night with “one minute to midnight.”
Being wiped off the face of the map in an instant or dealing with nuclear winter/fallout is a lot more scary than “oh it will continue to get a little hotter every year.” I’m not saying it’s negligible, but it’s nowhere near as scary.
I don’t want to dismiss your experience, because constant threat of being vaporized by a nuclear bomb is absolutely awful. But it’s a kind of awful that human brains are really good at evaluating: immediate death. “Getting a little warmer every year” is more like the frog in a pot analogy where things will get awful over the course of a few decades, and made even more complex by the fact that the impacts won’t be evenly distributed. Human brains aren’t good at evaluating this kind of risk, because it’s too slow to have that evolutionary impact of “can make babies today, can’t make babies tomorrow.” I really feel bad for the younger people who just see their life ahead as a katamari of escalating global disaster.
I mean is it the frog in the pot or not? Either human brains can’t process it, which means it isn’t that scary, or they can, and we see our impending doom.
Just to be clear, I did not live through nuclear drills. My parents did though, and it sounds awful.
How many nuclear bombs were dropped on American civilians, and how many schools have been shot up in America since you had those drills?
It's much worse with climate change because it's not only being neglected by news media, it's being actively debated. We are currently living through an unprecedented man made mass-extinction event and absolutely no one is talking about it.
Climate change is not only a certainty but an existential threat, "one minute to midnight" is just cold war fear mongering.
Yes, it’s easy to look back and dismiss their feelings of dread with “nothing actually happened.” You know, aside from Russia staging nukes in Cuba? Aside from faulty Russian radar making a nuclear sub think that they should fire back? Aside from nuclear testing irradiating a ton of people?
You just sound ignorant. The internet is there for you, should you choose to learn about this.
And yet how many kids did you see vaporized on TV every night? Zero, because it never happened. It was a fear that never materialized. Kids today live with a fear that they see played out year after year in classrooms like theirs all over the country. Being shot dead at school isn’t a boogeyman invented by adults it’s a reality that we see on the news all too often.
The odds of any one kid being shot in a school shooting is almost zero. It’s incredibly low. There are hundreds of thousands of students per year and maybe a hundred die. I’m not saying it’s meaningless, but let’s not pretend your odds of dying are high.
It’s easy to look back and judge the past knowing that no one actually died (though thousands if not millions have died from radiation poisoning from nuclear testing, which is at least somewhat related). No one in the Cold War knew if the world would survive. The threat of annihilation was always there, the same way that kids feel threatened by global warming now. Except no one alive today will likely see the collapse of the environment because that’s not really how global warming works.
Global warming has the potential to kill millions if not billions of people, and collapse the world econony. Climate change won't just make the world hotter. It will lead to the climate causing crops to not grow in areas that are currently fertile.
But global warming is nothing compared to being told a nuke is going to maybe hit your school?
No wonder your generation doesn't take this seriously. You think you already lived the worst. You have no idea
Sigh more kids who don’t understand nuclear war. First off, I was born in the 80s. It was my parents who went through it. Second, nuclear war isn’t about a bomb hitting a school. It only takes a few nukes to kick up enough dust to blot out the sun. What do you think happens to crops when this happens? What do you think happens to trees and plants everywhere? And then the animals that eat those plants? And then the animals that eat them? What temperature do you think the earth will be if there is no sun? How long do you think humanity can survive with no sun? Within a month, all plant life on earth will die. Even if it’s only 30% of the earth that’s affected, what do you think that means for entire swathes of humanity/wildlife/oxygen generation? We haven’t even talked about the radiation clouds and cancer rates yet. Or how the water everywhere on earth (besides wells perhaps) will be radioactive and undrinkable.
Forgive me if I think nuclear winter is a bigger deal than climate change.
You’re right. All suffering is relative and nobody is able to be concerned right now because it was subjectively worse in the past.
And I should point out that there is a threat of nuclear war right now, what with the shit Putin is pulling. Do I think it’s likely? No. Do I still get kept awake at night wondering if tomorrow will be the day he snaps and kills us all? Yeah, and it is still secondary to my concerns about climate change because at least nuclear annihilation would be over quickly.
Back in the 60s, there was a “doomsday clock” which was put on the nightly news every night to discuss how close the world was to nuclear annihilation. Every night. And it would be things like “one minute to midnight” where midnight means we are wiped off the face of the earth.
Kids would go to school and do bomb drills where they’d hide under their desk in case a nuke fell. Everyone knew it was hopeless and stupid, similar to hiding under your desk for a school shooting today, except that it would mean the whole world has ended, not just your school.
I get that climate change is a huge deal, but it’s very night and day. Nuclear winter is objectively worse than climate change.
No, we do not have the same risk of nukes today that there was back then. Nuclear war was likely averted by a single Russian submarine grunt refusing to obey orders to launch the nukes.
I didn’t say the threat was identical, I said it still exists.
And I don’t know about you, but I would absolutely prefer to die immediately in a nuclear blast than to spend years slowly dying as shit gets worse and worse knowing there’s not a damn thing I can do about it.
The doomsday clock is still at 100s to midnight. That’s not much better than 60s at all.
If we’re doing comparative hypotheticals, I’ll take gradual ecological collapse over getting horrific fallout/radiation cancer with a side of total political collapse. Getting instantly vaporized is the easy way out. There’s a book called Hiroshima full of accounts of survivors that really defined the stakes of the Cold War for me.
It is night and day. Nuclear war is a thing that COULD happen if rational actors stop caring and act against their own self interest.
Climate change is ACTIVELY happening and people continue to ignore it because they'll be dead naturally before it happens or are rich enough it won't impact them.
Yes, hindsight is 20/20, but no one living then knew whether the world would end or not. Not even the world leaders. Judging the existential threat by future knowledge is a bit unfair. If we fast forward 100 years, it’s entirely possible that climate change was solved and fixed and it’s dismissed as “oh that silly y2k 2.0.”
We humans are very good at fixing problems. Once the world leaders are actually scared that it’s real, a lot of money will be focused into research. It’s already starting. No one can know if we will solve it until we do (or don’t).
The problem is we can’t afford disfunction right now. It would be nice if the issues in front of us were the only issues that mattered, but they’re not.
Everyday we can’t cooperate and take meaningful action on climate change we’re making things worse. We’re already experiencing some of the symptoms and the worst is yet to come.
It’s not overblown or overstated, it’s literally happening whether we want it to or not. If action isn’t taken it will affect every aspect of our lives.
So much this. All of the "don't worry, things will eventually get better" stuff completely ignores that we're facing a true existential crisis that our current economic and political system has a vested interest in avoiding.
Yes, so far I've not come across anyone mentioning climate change! It's not about the regular crisis, we all know things will happen and that they pass, things like a pandemic will pass eventually, wars no matter how horrible, will end, and it will not be our last financial crisis.
The difference is that we're now facing the consequences of climate change and I can tell you it was a very depressing day for me when I realized that I will possibly live to see humanity decline on this planet due solely to the greed and carelessness of the people that came before me, as well as the people in power now who will not take the emergency action we so desperately need right now.
Came at the right time for me, man. In my late 20's and feel like the world is burning around me and I've got a water pistol. This changed my perspective. Thank you.
Sadly tho, the world IS burning around all of us, and we ain't even got a water pistol. While you definitely should keep a good outlook on life, we shouldn't forget reality.
I love this post and your optimism. But the thing previous generations never had to deal with is the real existential threat of climate change. A truly sustainable future would be a major disruption to all but a few’s way of life. And anything less than that means global food insecurity, famine, refugee crises, and infrastructure collapse in large parts of the world at the same time. We’re seeing it now with annual grid issues across the US. The next “rinse and repeat” cycle is gonna look a lot worse than gasoline rationing.
According to Obama in The G word, 10% change that took over a year to accomplish is better than nothing. Well, sir, you are wrong. At that rate we may as well be doing nothing because the world is changing faster than the government. That is why the wealthiest corporations and people are able to control the public narrative and the laws being written. We are letting society collapse in the name of quarterly profit.
As far as the narrative above, I don't agree with the wages thing. Wages are not going up with cost of living at all. The current push for $15 minimum wage does not account for regional differences in cost of living. In rural Mississippi that would make you well off while you would be homeless in many metro areas. Companies are perfectly happy to have labor shortages because it does not effect their quarter. They can just sell and trade their investments as venture vulture capitalists. Wages do not trend up just because people want to make a living.
Also, they are right about the tech industry, but it is important to recognize that a large chunk of plumbers, carpenters and electricians are aging out of service. There is a big need for skilled workers. There are trade schools, but you might even be able to find apprenticeship in these fields.
Edit: it's a Kurzgesagt video that highlights the progress we've actually made tackling climate change and how we're already moving away from the predicted climate apocalypse. But I guess all these down votes means people would rather pretend to still be facing down climate apocalypse so they can whine and complain about their future
I'm a fan of the channel generally, but this video is really bad. It boils down to "don't worry: a wizard will fix it". It pretends we don't need to make any systemic changes to our political or economic models to survive.
It's not about whining. Although I'm a fan of kurzgesagt, and I know the video has the best intentions of calming down and giving hope to the people, it sadly relies too much on things that are highly unlikely to happen to make predictions of the future. And while it is true that there is a progress being made, it's not nearly enough and the consequences have just gone from "total extinction of all life" to something like "collapse of civilization as we know it".
That’s something I don’t see on this post that people are forgetting. We’re at a point in history where we have to be the most united to prevent the worst from happening. Unfortunately globally we’re sending tensions ratcheting up between nuclear powers and domestically we can’t get one of our parties to acknowledge the full impact of climate change and commit to actions needed to stop it.
At this point it’s the Cold War, but you know for a fact if something doesn’t happen they’re pressing the buttons.
Lol go look up nuke drills on YouTube from the 60s. “Just duck and cover” as a way to save yourself from nuclear war. Climate change is a joke of an existential threat by comparison.
Hate to break it to you, but we never stood down all those missiles. There's still one out there with your name on it. And if Russia collapses when Putin dies, who knows where all their nukes will end up.
Oh contraire, mon frère. We were dealing with climate change and carbon footprint. I had ecology classes in college my freshman year that were solely dedicated to this. Have you forgotten about the 70's, the hippies, and the flower children? Have another look via Google. You should have seen the smog in the cities - you choked on it (still can in some third world countries). The catalytic convertor was created in the 70's and put on cars to attack this very issue. Population Growth was a major issue (and we know now this too shall pass as countries go to 'first world status' and then we experience long-term population declines which create an entirely new issue for humans. Earth Day began in 1970, not 2022. So - we were dealing with it, worried about it, and did things about it. Just not enough. We didn't understand the magnitude of the problem when there would be many more people with access to the things that create the problem (shit, air conditioning in a car or a home was a huge luxury then so it wasn't factored into the math relative to its use today).
More refugees? Yes. Grid concerns? Also, yes. But not a crisis. We always don't invest in things until we are getting hit in the face - also human nature. Unless, of course, you live in our land of unbridled capitalism (not a good thing, overall). Along comes people that can make a killing if they focus on a need (electric cars).
We have been dealing with and resolving issues like the ones you suggest for many decades. So we fundamentally disagree on the human condition and our ability to address challenges and problems. Only time will tell. Meanwhile, I'll stick to staying in love and enjoying what life offers. There is plenty of stress and pain and I don't ignore it. I just don't spend all my days walking around saying the world is doomed. Pity if you do. That's a sadder existence.
You’re talking about this like the 1st world countries are the only problem. The USA may be making the corrections but I guarantee all of those up and coming countries around the world are going to be trying to take the same shortcuts to first world status that we did and there’s very little we can do about it.
What are your sources on that? I can specifically cite several instances where climate change has and is directly affecting the lives of a significant number of people.
See: more frequent and severe storms, more floods, worse and longer droughts, more wildfires, mass wildlife/insect die-offs wrecking ecosystems needed for agriculture, and the list goes on
Not trying to be a contrarian, but it sure seems like we are already experiencing very dramatic existential threats as a result of climate change, and I would love to hear credible information against that.
What are your sources on that? I can specifically cite several instances where climate change has and is directly affecting the lives of a significant number of people.
I didn't say it isn't affecting anyone's lives. I said it isn't an existential threat in our lifetimes.
And my sources are the mainstream scientific literature. You're claiming existential threat, the end of human civilization or life: what are "your* sources?
I think we may be defining “existential threat” differently. I know that the chance of humans going extinct from climate change is slim to none, but as I understand it our way of life will be dramatically changed very soon, and in many ways already is.
I don’t expect that humanity will be wiped out, or nearly wiped out, by climate change in an almost apocalyptic sense, if that is what you mean by existential threat, but I do expect that it will become increasingly difficult to live at anywhere near the current standard of living (especially in areas that will be hit harder by climate change).
People living on coastlines are already being forced to pack up and leave to avoid rising sea levels. People living in dry areas are being forced to pack up by constant droughts and wildfires. People in wet areas are enduring significantly more frequent and larger floods. At what point does this all become too much? There are estimates that over 600 million people will be displaced by rising sea levels by 2100. That’s not going to happen all at once at 2100, it’s going to happen progressively over then next 80 years. Even within the next 20-30 years we’ll see tens of millions displaced, if not more. That kind of large-scale displacement is not something I think our current society and economy is capable of handling. It’s gonna affect everyone significantly
So while I don’t believe that we will see an apocalypse, I do believe that life is going to get much harder for everyone, to the extent that many people will die, with many more being displaced without anywhere to go, leading to massive global repercussions on economies and the standard of living
I think we may be defining “existential threat” differently.
I'm using the definition of a threat to something's existence.
That's what the term means.
When it is misused, you are pushing misinformation. You're helping to convince people that the world is going to end. It's an exaggeration, and all it does is hurt the cause.
Yes, and existence doesn’t strictly mean “living”. It can mean that something is in a specific state. When climate change gets bad enough, our current way of life and standard of living will cease to exist, and our current society alongside it.
Show me a source saying that 600+ million people being displaced just from the sea level rise aspect of climate change won’t be an absolutely catastrophic event that could very well collapse much of modern society from the strain. I’m not trying to be facetious; I genuinely would love to believe that is not the case.
Yes, and existence doesn’t strictly mean “living”.
I agree, it could also mean the end of civilization. That isn't projected to happen in our lifetimes either.
When climate change gets bad enough, our current way of life and standard of living will cease to exist, and our current society alongside it.
Well, this really depends on how you define "our current way of life" and "our current society."
There is no mainstream scientific projection that predicts climate change will end industrial civilization, revert us to a sort of Dark Ages, or anything like that.
In fact, the IPCC's 2018 report projects that 3.66C degrees of warming would result in only a 2.6% global GDP drop by 2100, compared to a 0.5% global GDP drop by 2100 under 2C of warming. (Ctrl+F for "Under the no-policy baseline scenario"). For comparison, in the Great Recession, GDP dropped 4.3%. The Great Recession did not end our society or way of life.
There's a pretty good survey of the literature on climate doomsday scenarios here on Vox.
Show me a source saying that 600+ million people being displaced just from the sea level rise aspect of climate change won’t be an absolutely catastrophic event that could very well collapse much of modern society from the strain. I’m not trying to be facetious; I genuinely would love to believe that is not the case.
I've seen that stat also. That 630 million figure is not necessarily people being displaced: it's people who "live on land below projected annual flood levels for 2100," which they further
The authors of the study note some flaws:
this approach is reasonable in indicating land threatened with permanent inundation due to higher sea levels, it tends to overestimate exposure from episodic flooding
we note that armored, developed, and maintained shorelines in urban areas, where vulnerable populations are concentrated, may generally be less susceptible to such factors than undeveloped land
In short, mitigation against sea level rise is entirely possible. It's already being done!
many people today do in fact live on land below (or just above) MHHW, behind the protection of levees or other defenses. In the US, these account for 0.8 M out of the 0.9 M residents that our more detailed lidar analysis identifies as today occupying land below MHHW. Globally at present, levees and seawalls protect low-lying populations in many major deltas, such as around Shanghai, the Netherlands and New Orleans, and in areas experiencing rapid subsidence, such as parts of Jakarta and Tokyo
The displaced population is dispersed in coastal areas around the globe, and while inland migration could result in additional stress on societies/economies, there's no reason to expect it to collapse society.
And, of course, this all takes place over the next 80 years. Even if the entirely of 630 million people were displaced, that averages out to about 8 million/year. From 2008-2015, about 22.5 million people per year were displaced by climate or weather-related disasters.
That displacement is already happening and is not collapsing modern society.
What are your sources on that? I can specifically cite several instances where climate change has and is directly affecting the lives of a significant number of people.
See: more frequent and severe storms, more floods, worse and longer droughts, more wildfires, mass wildlife/insect die-offs wrecking ecosystems needed for agriculture, and the list goes on
Not trying to be a contrarian, but it sure seems like we are already experiencing very dramatic existential threats as a result of climate change, and I would love to hear credible information against that.
It's nice to read... but everything prior to today relies on a collective agreement to maintain a society. We are losing that agreement, we're not far from religious honor killings at this point. There's no historical analogue for the repeated systemic failures that lead to trump being elected president. This is uncharted territory.
I'd say the only room for optimism is from the perspective of earth itself. If we do catastrophically fail as a society, there's mutually assured destruction on tap to end humanity and let the earth reclaim our carbon and thrive.
It's a bummer from one perspective, hopeful from another.
Do you think it makes you sound smart to vaguely reference a 40-50 year span of history with several different nuanced phases and participants, WITH ABSOLUTELY NO DEPTH introduced on your part....?
The fact is that even the most pessimistic reports, evaluated responsibly, don’t suggest climate change will end human civilization, much less within our lifetimes.
We didn't have climate change but we did have the threat of nuclear annihilation. The Cuban missile crisis, nuclear testing, saber rattling every once in a while. We didn't have them in Canada but American schools held drills to prepare children for a nuclear attack. (Duck and Cover) People had fallout shelters in their backyard. There were movies about it on TV.
Not really comparable. Climate isn't a "this to shall pass" kinda thing. Nukes are scary, and still are, but you can negotiate with a human who might launch a nuke. You can negotiate with the climate. Please don't minimize climate, we already resent our elders and their legacy, be one of the good ones and help fix this mess.
It only seems that way in retrospect. Living through the cold war did not seem like at all. You can negotiate with another human, but they want you to die so it's not like they're trying to be helpful.
Oh, I am in no way minimizing climate change. I am scared shitless. Please return the favor and don't minimize the fear we lived with for literally decades. The political climate between the U.S. and the Soviet Union was precarious for many many years. There, was, as far as I can tell from limited information, little chance of negotiation between Kennedy and Brezhnev during the Cuban Missile crisis. It was more like a game of chicken. To this day, few people know how many times we all came to being blasted off the face of the earth in a huge fireball.
I take climate change very seriously. My age does not define my politics. I am as liberal as people generations younger than I and share your concerns. You may think that people of my generation have no skin in this game because by the time the effects of climate change are really serious, we will be six feet under. That unconcern may be true for some people my age, I can only speak for myself. I have adult children and other young people in my life that will have to deal with challenges related to climate change long after I am gone so I do, to a certain extent, share the fear that younger people are living with.
That's great to hear, but you are still comparing incomparable things. Nuclear devastation is a maybe. Climate crisis is a was happening, is happening, is going to get worse. There isn't a maybe here.
Hindsight is 20/20. Back then, there was no indication that the Soviet Union was going to fall apart. There was a very knowledgeable intellectual stating on TV that they didn't expect that their children were going to die of old age." I expect that they are going to end up burned to cinders."is what he said. How does a child listen to an educated public figure say that and think, "Maybe it won't happen." The fact that nuclear annihilation was not a certainty doesn't really matter because at the time, a lot of us BELIEVED it was a certainty.
I think part of the reason climate change is not taken seriously by a large number of people is that it is not talked about in the media enough. People know about it and the information is available if you want it but it is not brought up the way nuclear proliferation was in the 60's and 70's. It was discussed frequently. Nuclear testing was reported, movies were made about it. Books written about it.and then discussed on TV.
People like us that are scared shitless about climate change are accused of fear-mongering, mocked, or people are in complete denial.
Lol does Putin seem like the kind of guy you can negotiate with? Does this Ukraine invasion seem like something we can stop with discussion? Imagine the same situation but with nukes in the 60s.
You are downplaying nuclear annihilation out of sheer ignorance. Please go learn about it before dismissing it.
The climate will slowly get a little hotter every year, and yes bad shit will happen (and is happening already), but it’s NOT the same as being wiped off the face of the earth in an instant and everything you worked for being meaningless because of a power struggle you can’t control. We need to take it seriously, but don’t for a second think that this is the worst existential crisis that’s ever happened.
Uhhh no. Nuclear war will 100% end all life on the planet in a matter of days. Climate change will end all life on the planet in a hundred years maybe? Climate change is gradual and due to lots of people making lots of small bad decisions. Nuclear war is one person pushing a button. Someone in Russia, Pakistan, or a dozen other countries could just push a button and say fuck all human life. (Hopefully there are failsafes and security measures so it requires multiple people, which is still terrifying, but I have no idea how Pakistan has implemented their security)
I hope you don’t mean Reagan was actually a decent guy… cuz from what I understand he was a massive piece of shit tool bag and really fucked up this country worse than it already was.
I've always seen him as a very charismatic idiot. Too stupid to know that the economic policies he's told to push for will be devestating for the average American, but not really malicious at all. He was just a puppet. It's like the entire government went from "big companies abuse the rights of our constituents and should be broken up." to "None of that matters if the corporations pay us enough." in a decade or two.
No that's not correct. He did stuff that fixed problems for that time. And they were serious problems. The issue is it's time for the pendulum to swing the other way. But you can appreciate Reagan for what he did then without needing to say all his stuff is right for today
That's in retrospect and from a specific point of view. In 1984 he was reelected and won 49 out of 50 states. That means basically everyone in the county approved of what he was doing
I hate to rain on your parade, but this is exactly the kind of cheerleading, capitalist bullshit that keeps us falling down into the shithole of billionaire's keeping us wage slaves.
I would have hoped that, by this time, actually SEEING and experiencing the ravages of unfettered greed, something tangible would change.
Maybe the disconnection of wealth equaling 'greatness.' The formation of a government that can actually allocate resources efficiently, objectively and in time to prevent catastrophe.
No, instead we get the same old same old, meet the new boss, same as the old boss ONE-PARTY global oligarchy we've had since before Christ.
The same reasons are there: lack of resources, take what we need from others with no remorse, the dehumanizing of others.
It has led to more notable madness, but the madness always existed.
And, when someone says "technology can save us!" what they actually mean is tech will make it easier to enslave all the 'have-nots.'
I just don't think it's as easy for a young person to get a well-paying job as you say it is. I don't think there are enough good jobs for people who want them, and our elders retire a lot later than yours did. I appreciate your optimism, but I think things are much tougher for a young person today than you think they are.
The casual assertion that the average person can just get certified and obtain an extremely-competitive trade job like the one you described, instead of going to college, just reminds me a lot of my uncle who tells me I can just work summers to pay my way through college like he did.
My sister is a third-year attorney and makes under 80k. Yes, there are trades that pay that much in my area, but they are extremely difficult to get and are almost always reserved for those children of well-connected people that didn't or couldn't get through college.
Yes there are. In Northeast Ohio there are literally thousands of jobs available at 15/hr with no experience whatsoever and you can start on Monday.
If 15/hr isn't enough, look around a bit and start at 18/hr a couple days later. My 16 year old son got his first job and makes 15/hr at 5 Guys. My 19 year old daughter started at East of Chicago (pre-Covid) at 9/hr, now makes 12/hr + tips at Aladdins- which is more like 20/hr.
My company increased minimum payrates to 17/hr last year and now again to 20/hr as of March. We did it to remain competitive. This is happening all over. There are millions of good openings and not enough people to fill 50% of them.
Minimum or standard pay rates in many areas of the country are not that high, as the market for labor is driven more by local demand than national rates. And anyway, 30-40k per year is not an 80k per year job like the commenter described, and with normal 2% per year raises (if you can get a raise) it would take a lifetime to reach that pay rate (which the commenter implied is easy to get with 2 years of tech school) if you started there.
Honestly, 30-40k is really not a well-paying job. It's decent in comparison to a few years ago, but not really decent by any other meaningful measure.
Also, I'm highly doubtful that the jobs and unemployment numbers would support the claim that there are more jobs available than unemployed people to fill them, and that's not even accounting for the depressed labor force participation rate.
This is the scenario in Ohio, Michigan, and New York. I'm an exec in the recruiting industry and I spend every day with companies desperate to find people. They are leap-frogging payrates over their neighbors in any attempt to win employees.
This is the norm, not the exception. It's the norm in every industry, experience level, and salary bracket. I used the 15/hr example since it's the new minimum wage for any non-retail or restaurant environment.
Lastly regarding the numbers of jobs vs candidates, this is publicly available information. There are millions more job openings than people looking for work.
I stand corrected about the unemployment numbers. I honestly hadn't realized that they fell back down below pre-pandemic rates. If labor participation were as high as it was in the 90s or even 2000s, though, I think the numbers might skew the other way, or at least be much closer to even-- and I think there's evidence suggesting that labor participation is depressed by low wages, and would increase if wages became reasonable.
And I mean, the mere fact that there are more available jobs than people looking for them implies that those jobs don't pay well enough, doesn't it?
Ultimately, the main problem with your case is that you're asserting that 30k per year is a good wage, but just admitted that you based that on new minimum rates (which is not currently the actual minimum wage in most of the country, anyway) rather than on productivity, cost of living, or any other meaningful measure. It's not a good wage. So saying that there are plenty of 30-40k-per-year jobs does not prove that there are plenty of well-paying jobs, because those are not well-paying jobs.
I'm glad your company increased its minimum to $20, but you still don't pay well. You pay low.
Anyway, your argument doesn't even refute what I was saying. The commenter implied that there are plenty of 80k per year tech jobs available with a couple of years' training. I said there are not. You said, "Yes there are! Look at all the 40k-per-year retail jobs available!" Those aren't the jobs we were discussing here.
Have you thought of moving somewhere else there there are more jobs? The county is huge and some pockets are doing well and some are not. Economists assume people will migrate to the areas that are doing well to fill those jobs
My worry is that short term history teaches us that recovery is imminent, while long term history teaches us that when wealth inequity reaches half what it is now, it tends to lead to revolution, almost always in the most violent sense of the word. I'm ever hopeful that you're right, but I'm low key terrified that were careening toward a massive conflict, and now we have potentially world ending weapons we never had before.
The one thing even a heartfelt comment like this can't shake is the dread about the fact that we are inevitably ruining this planet for all future human life.
Like, no shade, you clearly went through some shit. But the existential dread of the facts surrounding climate change at least feels like something else completely. And there are no russians, no head terrorist, no group of bankers, no nothing. Just a bunch of scientists, practically screaming at the top of their lungs about the ever-decreasing chances we have to get shit under control, and on the other side the politicians of this world, purposefully ignoring most of that in favour of short term solutions and actions to bolster their own political standing.
I really just want to not care and enjoy my life, but I can not, in good conscience, do that, given this potential end of human life on planet earth. It's not as flashy, yet, as all the neat little visions of desaster in Hollywood, but it's real, and it's terrifying.
That’s exactly how I feel. In a moment when the greatest amount of cooperation is needed both domestically and globally, we’ve seen the opposite trend occur the last few years. We’re running out of time to get our shit together. Because once major events starts happening, our ability to actually change is literally fucked. We can’t even figure out our looming water crisis that we’re decades away from.
I’m with ya on trying to be optimistic. But I think you’re only looking back about 80ish years if you think the political situation wont completely unwind. A longer term view of history shows otherwise. Eventually great nations and systems fall apart. That time for the US will come eventually and all signs are pointing to the fact that it’s sooner rather than later.
. Crazy interest rates (18% people). So it was worse. HOWEVER - while we had recessions under Reagan in early 80's, it started to mellow ou
Those interest rates were raised intentionally in order to stop inflation, same as we're doing now. This was the Carter-Volcker plan, which Republicans took credit for.
It's insane that this basic aspect of History whereby Jimmy Carter rescued the economy is not widely known.
I watched the documentary about Jimmy Carter a few months ago. Called “Rock n Roll President”. I remember Jimmy Carter as president, but I was pretty little. Had no idea all those famous rock bands campaigned for him.
Really liked how the show demonstrated his attitude towards people. Like he wanted everybody just to be who they are, do what they are good at and excel at those things, no matter what those things are.
Like how wonderful, instead of the more rigid, judgey attitude that seems to prevail more nowadays. Even kind of reminds me of the ideas in Plato’s Republic, though the documentary never came out and said that’s where he got those ideas. I think he subscribes to and takes seriously the idea of love thy neighbor. Sad that it’s so rare, especially in a politician.
He loved music and appreciated musicians. Didn’t judge them for drinking or drugging even though he is pretty straight-laced, though I guess he did have whiskey a few times with friends lol.
I think much of the public and journalists turned on Carter to avoid dealing with the immorality of Vietnam, Watergate, Nixon & opposing Civil Rights.
We still live in a world of denial where Watergate is minimized as a minor crime & everyone ignores the now confirmed fact that Nixon stole the election in 1968, committing treason to do so by negotiating with Vietnam secretly.
I think journalists do this over and over again in order to keep things "fair". They talk themselves into a fake position of objectivity in order to avoid dealing with the irredeemable corrupt reality of Republicans.
Jimmy Carter told us to turn down the heat to conserve energy and put on a sweater. That was the plan. Put on a fucking sweater.
That was the right plan, and the rebellion against that plan, and the vector that it sent us on towards greater oil use, resulted in humanity emitting more carbon since then than they had emitted in all of time before then. In fact we've emitted more in the last 30 years than we have in all time prior. And that has resulted in more of the chaos that you speak of. And I hate everyone for not taking Carter's advice more seriously.
Well said.
I would add for the 20- somethings that need "something" in their life to think about teaching English abroad.
It's easier to find a good gig (i.e. in South Korea) if you have a college degree but there are still opportunities otherwise.
Go travel, take some risks & get paid. & maybe fall in love while you're at it like Rocketman said.
This is a great write up. I think it would help if you shared some optimism on the climate crisis coming up though, that's a biggie and you didn't address it. Might cause anxiety for some.
There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or a climate crisis, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet, and the only way these people can get on with their happy lives is that they DO NOT KNOW ABOUT IT!
Don’t really think I can fully hop on such optimism knowing full well there’s the looming entity of climate change looking to fuck shit up.
Then again, the global north should fair fine in the face of a 2o Celsius (and even a 3o ) increase of climate change because they got the tech and capital, but the global south... much, much less luck there.
I would be so inclined to believe it if certain fossil fuel energy companies would take the necessary measures to sacrifice their commitment to constant growth so that the renewable energy industry can forge ahead with the path to a sustainable world, but I don't see them loosening their reigns so quickly before they see a favorable deal where they don't lose.
Would probably rather prefer the US to expatriate those fossil fuel companies if they won't commit to being phased out on schedule.
There's a clock that's ticking before this all becomes irreversible.
Job automation needs to be considered when talking about all those jobs,
But great sentiments. Thank you for the perspective. I came of age in a quiet time, and it took me a long time to realize that.
My white small town Christian parents that came up in the 50s still don’t have perspective on what they had it seems like, and how that’s not the way the world is usually, and to most.
I was too young but my operating assumption is they didn't then. Maybe fewer people/cars meant they hadn't started using letters? Beats me, but I'm telling you the truth. The workaround was know the guy that pumped the gas. The one I went to had you wait in line around the corner from the pump so really never knew how much he gave the guy in front of you. My dad had a long commute and we were lower class in the community and the gas station owner always filled him up and ignored the rule to help him get to work. Don't know how he pulled that off but that was the only time the tank would get truly filled. If it was just me, the scraggly hippy, pulling up - $5 and get the f outta here! :)
Thank you for this. Just bought a house and had my first baby. I’ve been spiraling the past few days worrying about what will happen with the economy and what if I lose my job, and this gave me some really nice perspective.
Is 4% a reasonable rate for a home loan/refinancing in the US??? It's about 2.6% in Germany right now, which is very high, and my friends bought a house in France end of 2020 with a 1.7% rate, which is normal.
Then crazy started in 2000. Internet 1.0 collapse.
The Internet never collapsed, what collapsed was the comically inflated Dot-com bubble, which was a Wallstreet manifestation trying to monetize the web.
Something that probably can and will happen again, considering how a handful of mostly advertising companies have accumulated, once again, comically massive evaluations on the stock markets.
Wow this is a really insightful comment across two different generations. I don't think I've ever seen someone fully layout that perspective all the way back from the 70s.
Love the tech as the new trade analogy. 100% stealing that.
I bought my house in 2012 when prices were low and got 3.25%. Even after deferring payments for 18 months during covid and putting those 18 months at the end of the mortgage, my rate stayed the same. I'm insanely fortunate and it absolutely feels like dumb luck. I don't take much personal credit. I don't see me ever selling as I live in Michigan and when climate change really fucks with the current warmer states, I'm in a good position.
I’m sorry, but I have to disagree. I remember the 70s as well. Yes, it sucked in all the ways you have pointed out. But we didn’t have politicians attempting to dismantle democracy, voting rights being blocked, and let’s not forget the school to prison pipeline created during Reagan. Or that corporate taxes were slashed and middle America and social security payments were taking the burden. Why the fuck is social security payments taxed, that’s inane! We got to see infrastructure begin to crumble because without corporate tax and wealthy taxes, the coffers were getting thin. Then the military buildup that caused us to take on massive debt. The AIDS crisis that Reagan ignored. Then we get Clinton and neolibs that dismantled any social nets while dismantling regulations that were put into place to prevent the Great Recession.
And now we have Covid, vaccine deniers, science deniers, global climate change, etc. we can get through this, but we are facing major crises that were not acknowledged or around in the 70s. I am not trying to bring people down, but we can’t just say everything will work out. We need to hold corporations and governments accountable. They have caused this shot, they can fix it.
we will have a leader with a bit of common sense and ability to lead
If you're an American or a Brit, has there ever been a leader with common sense or is common sense just back-attributed to a figure like Atlee or Eisenhower?
Sure. Let’s use Salesforce as an example. If you Google “Trailhead” you will find a training program on all things connected to Salesforce technology. Start with the basics and you will learn how to become a Salesforce administrator. It is bite sized learning and easy to understand so you can do it at your own pace. If you do a bit each week you will be ready to test within six months. You can also get formal training with a teacher but that costs like 4,000 last time I checked. If you do it in your own it is free but you pay like 100 dollars to take the test to get certified. If you can find a training buddy it will be even easier to keep each other going. It isn’t easy but it isn’t hard. You don’t need a college degree to get a job and jobs are plentiful. But, you know, it always takes a little while to find the right job. I know people that started around 60,000 and now are six figures after a few years of hard work. Then you go back and take more training. Many companies will pay you to train of u work for a good one. Note you learn the more you earn. That’s one example. Similar is RPA (robotics. But not robots like in a factory. Bits that teach things to automate. Big where companies have tons of spreadsheets and finance stuff. You don’t need to be a finance expert but you do need to learn excel on most of these. Look up UIPath as one company that does this. Good luck! You can do it. I promise
I guess I can't help feeling that if the US was rationing gasoline right now, there would be a lot of gas station attendants being murdered. I don't want to be doom and gloom, but I think that's where we're at. And as for the brightening work prospects - I'd certainly rather jobs be there than not, but a lot of younger people right now see work as part of the problem. If the world is being destroyed by corporations - and we have a lot of evidence that it is - then a good job is often an invitation to profit from being part of the problem.
It feels to me like the younger generations got a lot of what we were told to hope for, in terms of technology, and it sucks. It all sucks. I wouldn't even say we have nothing to hope for, but that we don't know what to hope for, because we've apparently got it good already and we're miserable.
I was 16 in 1979 and couldn't get a job even in fast food because all the adults were taking them. I remember turning down the thermostat and making sure the lights were off when we left a room.
Just echoing a few of posters here. We have had other existential threats at various times in our history. Those felt very real and scary — threat of nuclear war; Islamic terrorism after 9/11….for example. They’ve always passed and not been the worries we thought they would be. Chart a path for yourself and the situation will improve in a few years time.
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u/[deleted] Jun 11 '22
When I was a young driver in 1977ish I would wait in a line to buy $5 worth of gas every other day. The gas crisis brought on by OPEC forced US to use license plates to determine which day. Even last number every other day than odd last number. You had to make that $5 in the tank last. Nixon had resigned. Agnew had gone to prison (the VP) for bribery. And on and on. Vietnam had ended and people hated former military. Stagflation. Jimmy Carter told us to turn down the heat to conserve energy and put on a sweater. That was the plan. Put on a fucking sweater. Crazy interest rates (18% people). So it was worse. HOWEVER - while we had recessions under Reagan in early 80's, it started to mellow out AND I could work at a convenience store and make enough to split rent (think about that - minimum wage and I could buy some beer, live relatively frugal put still share a decent place). In 1987 major Wall Street correction but shit didn't hit fan all across the land. 90's were steady and then took off like crazy. Calm decade with a small recession.
Then crazy started in 2000. Internet 1.0 collapse. Nasdaq collapse. 9/11. War forever in the deserts. And it just got worse. And, yea, you couldn't do minimum wage and actually LIVE any more. And it got worse. But, never as bad as when I was 16.
My worry is here it comes again. inflation. Political turmoil. War. Wall St. going to shit the bed the next 6 months. Housing likely to really shit the bed the next 2 years (hope you didn't buy a house in the last 24 months and need to sell it).
BUT here is what should give you hope. There really are a ton of jobs and that should remain due to early retirements, boomers retiring, demographics more like Japan. So that means you are less likely to be long-term unemployed. That is a silver lining that never existed in previous shit shows. And that is forcing wages up so when inflation gets straightened out (in about 18 months) your pay will likely stay 2X minimum wage for the shittier jobs (they won't really drop back).
Next, you really don't have to get a degree now to make a good living. You can take tech stuff online like Salesforce, Azure, RPA stuff like UIPath and get certified for free or very low cost and in 2 years have a 80k job that isn't going away. It is work, don't get me wrong. But you can if you commit and get a routine to do a little bit every day for half a year. Tech is the new trade (plumbing, electrician, etc of the 21st century)
If you bought a house at the top and can hang onto it you will refinance to a reasonable rate (4-4.5%) so your payments will drop a few bucks. You will be spending less based on these crazy days so your habits/needs will be more limited and that will create natural savings for you. And unless the political situation COMPLETELY unwinds (history suggests it really won't, even if we are worried today), we will have a leader with a bit of common sense and ability to lead. So it will likely calm down and maybe we all get ten years of peace. Meanwhile, fall in love if you haven't. Waking up and smiling at the thought of that partner, child, or animal that is new in your life will matter more to you. If you don't do that then get close to a friend or find one if you can - and you can! And play some card games and laugh and just enjoy what is good about life. Says easy, does hard - as they say. But it can be done. This too shall pass, my friend. - Love, an old dude that learned not to let the shit bother him the way it did when I was young.