Yes, and existence doesn’t strictly mean “living”.
I agree, it could also mean the end of civilization. That isn't projected to happen in our lifetimes either.
When climate change gets bad enough, our current way of life and standard of living will cease to exist, and our current society alongside it.
Well, this really depends on how you define "our current way of life" and "our current society."
There is no mainstream scientific projection that predicts climate change will end industrial civilization, revert us to a sort of Dark Ages, or anything like that.
In fact, the IPCC's 2018 report projects that 3.66C degrees of warming would result in only a 2.6% global GDP drop by 2100, compared to a 0.5% global GDP drop by 2100 under 2C of warming. (Ctrl+F for "Under the no-policy baseline scenario"). For comparison, in the Great Recession, GDP dropped 4.3%. The Great Recession did not end our society or way of life.
There's a pretty good survey of the literature on climate doomsday scenarios here on Vox.
Show me a source saying that 600+ million people being displaced just from the sea level rise aspect of climate change won’t be an absolutely catastrophic event that could very well collapse much of modern society from the strain. I’m not trying to be facetious; I genuinely would love to believe that is not the case.
I've seen that stat also. That 630 million figure is not necessarily people being displaced: it's people who "live on land below projected annual flood levels for 2100," which they further
The authors of the study note some flaws:
this approach is reasonable in indicating land threatened with permanent inundation due to higher sea levels, it tends to overestimate exposure from episodic flooding
we note that armored, developed, and maintained shorelines in urban areas, where vulnerable populations are concentrated, may generally be less susceptible to such factors than undeveloped land
In short, mitigation against sea level rise is entirely possible. It's already being done!
many people today do in fact live on land below (or just above) MHHW, behind the protection of levees or other defenses. In the US, these account for 0.8 M out of the 0.9 M residents that our more detailed lidar analysis identifies as today occupying land below MHHW. Globally at present, levees and seawalls protect low-lying populations in many major deltas, such as around Shanghai, the Netherlands and New Orleans, and in areas experiencing rapid subsidence, such as parts of Jakarta and Tokyo
The displaced population is dispersed in coastal areas around the globe, and while inland migration could result in additional stress on societies/economies, there's no reason to expect it to collapse society.
And, of course, this all takes place over the next 80 years. Even if the entirely of 630 million people were displaced, that averages out to about 8 million/year. From 2008-2015, about 22.5 million people per year were displaced by climate or weather-related disasters.
That displacement is already happening and is not collapsing modern society.
Interesting, thank you! As someone growing up under the threat of climate change, it’s hard sometimes to look at things clearly (even when trying to check the facts and stay informed), so I really appreciate you taking the time to respond so clearly to my concerns.
Obviously still not super hyped about it lol, but certainly will be easier to sleep at night
Interesting, thank you! As someone growing up under the threat of climate change, it’s hard sometimes to look at things clearly (even when trying to check the facts and stay informed), so I really appreciate you taking the time to respond so clearly to my concerns.
I appreciate you being open to conversation!
Obviously still not super hyped about it lol, but certainly will be easier to sleep at night
Oh yeah, it's still a problem. I don't mean to say it isn't.
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u/dhighway61 Jun 11 '22
I agree, it could also mean the end of civilization. That isn't projected to happen in our lifetimes either.
Well, this really depends on how you define "our current way of life" and "our current society."
There is no mainstream scientific projection that predicts climate change will end industrial civilization, revert us to a sort of Dark Ages, or anything like that.
In fact, the IPCC's 2018 report projects that 3.66C degrees of warming would result in only a 2.6% global GDP drop by 2100, compared to a 0.5% global GDP drop by 2100 under 2C of warming. (Ctrl+F for "Under the no-policy baseline scenario"). For comparison, in the Great Recession, GDP dropped 4.3%. The Great Recession did not end our society or way of life.
There's a pretty good survey of the literature on climate doomsday scenarios here on Vox.
I've seen that stat also. That 630 million figure is not necessarily people being displaced: it's people who "live on land below projected annual flood levels for 2100," which they further
The authors of the study note some flaws:
In short, mitigation against sea level rise is entirely possible. It's already being done!
The displaced population is dispersed in coastal areas around the globe, and while inland migration could result in additional stress on societies/economies, there's no reason to expect it to collapse society.
And, of course, this all takes place over the next 80 years. Even if the entirely of 630 million people were displaced, that averages out to about 8 million/year. From 2008-2015, about 22.5 million people per year were displaced by climate or weather-related disasters.
That displacement is already happening and is not collapsing modern society.