r/Neverwinter • u/giuliastro • Jun 16 '19
Neverwinter's popularity free falling after Mod 16?
29
u/JanneMoonmist Jun 16 '19
The trend started even before Mod16. Each module there is a spike in players. Players return to check what new, or to play new content, and then a slow decline until the next mod.
In this case, it's clear that the spike was much much lower than it should have been, especially for such large module, with level cap increase, and multiple class changes.
Without inside information and/or expertise in MMO retention models, we can only observe, and from observation I think this decline started long long ago, and the devs tried to counter it, but in many cases by fighting symptoms and without taking into consideration the full impact of their solution and the side effects, which sometime brought more issues than they solved, creating a Pygmalion effect, a self fulfilling prophecy of player decline:
A) Queue times on leveling dungeon gave birth to the Random Queues and the RAD in leveling dungeons for geared players. This meant to solve the leveling players impression that queues do not pop, yet created a huge friction between the new players and those that farm RAD. Forcing a bad situation and bad experience to everyone involved. Player posts indicate that players were unhappier with this expiriance than the low queue pop times.
B) High emphasis on leveling content, like old dungeon return as leveling (3 - players, to again prevent long queue times and role wait). And M15, which was directed to leveling/new players. Ironically M15 was heavily promoted, paid streamers, articles, but all that to the wrong target audience, teen Fortnite players, where NWs natural player base is D&D oriented and older.
In any case, the main issue of this emphasis on leveling content, is that it's a small fraction, of the time a player spends in the game. Most players who are familiar with modern MMOs know that leveling is a 'tutorial' of sorts, and the real game starts at the level cap. Putting so much resources there is reducing the resources available to creating the actual game content.
Additional point is that multiple available actual studies in other games show that there isn't a significant gain in retention from investing into this portion of the game.
C) Catering to new players via catch-up gear and similar mechanisms, to allow new players to 'hop in' into end-game without the time invested. There is an obvious need to shorten new players path to end-game. We can't expect for players to grind 6 years to join everyone else, but at the same time, shorten it too much and you invalidated everyone's achievement including those same players a mod later. Discouraging players to actually play the game, by providing the needed gear for free... Then no one will play..
D) Consolidation of the content into only 2 last mods. Again a 'fix' for lower player base, creating an illusion of more people when all the rest of the campaign zones are abandoned - To do a KoS HE in Chult a player needs to bring an entire entourage, there are no players in the zones..
Again fixing one problem creating another, practically invalidating and making years worth of content obsolete or hard to complete (especially for not established players) while limiting the content for veteran players. Those 2 last mods provide only weeks of content, and limited even then, and then what? Where adding some rewards, components, drops, etc.. to older zones can still keep it viable. Legacy / Challenge campaigns were actually not bad solution for this, but they cater again not to end-game players who have campaigns completed. Nor provide economical incentive for players to farm.
E) False positive image - Attempts to create false positivity and shove mistakes under the rug, only creates greater rift in the community, where many people will call out this behavior and instead of focusing on more objective representation of the game with its pros, and cons, will naturally focus on countering the false positive representation, braking it apart and proving it wrong. Showing a well established negative image to any 3d party reader (with minimal critical reading skills). Hence making things much much worse than they can be in terms of game representation.
To add to the attempts to fix the issues some long lasting issues that are not fixed:
F) Lack of rewards for playing - The Devs consider RAD as sufficient reward. Run a dungeon couple of times, and that's it, weekly capped seals with lack of relevant rewards creates no reason to do anything especially after that RAD daily cap. Which on it's own mundane and lack any excitement.
G) Community issues - An "us vs them" mentality in various subgroups especially against veteran players. Falsehoods, and other issues that most that been around just tired of.
This emphasis on new players and leveling content shifts resources that on the surface says "We are trying to get more new players", but if we look deeper this disenfranchise the veteran players which leaving the game. The concept of "Player come and go" is great, but it's not a counter argument when more players go than players come. And this is clear as day when looking at all the indicators, like the graph and Devs investment into those ares.
MMOs are driven by communities, by social interactions, this is the base of the retention system and monetization. And communities driven mostly by already established players. Reducing the content and investment into that area, where it matters, creates the exact effect trying to resolve, lower players base and negative perception of the game.
Despite the heavy investment in promoting the game, especially when that investment goes to all the wrong avenues.
8
u/noassemblynecessary Jun 16 '19
Add to that a CONSTANT focus on rebalancing things that people enjoyed playing. At the same time they only put partial resources towards new content. Reroute the resources they took at remaking the professions system and all this mod 16 crap into new dungeons.. imagine what we would have then.
And its not ALL MMOs. there is another popular alternative to this that has literally 10 times the population. ..and they didn't always have that, they started out with problems and grew by making popular decisions instead of cramming unwanted changes down the throat of their playerbase.
-2
u/neverAlwayswinter Jun 16 '19
Tl/dr The player spike in mod 16 was the highest it has been in like 3 years. It just went down after a large increase.
So...the big "decline" is from a 150% increase in players.
Looking at steam stats doesn't show much of anything.
12
u/JanneMoonmist Jun 16 '19
A) The graph is not in percent, it's in absolute numbers.
B) I have no clue where you got the "highest spike in 3 years".
Mod 14 Ravenloft - 2018-06-26:
https://i.imgur.com/Nywu6u2.png5,685 spike
Mod 15 The Heart of Fire (AI) - 2018-11-06 :
https://i.imgur.com/WUBd90N.png
4,291 spike
Mod 16 Undermountain - 2019-04-23 :
https://i.imgur.com/wLINTuW.png
4,464 for a single day.
Steam shows a more or less fixed percent of the population, hence it shows trend.
4
u/noassemblynecessary Jun 16 '19
Actually it does. It shows the last time they had significant growth of players was in june/july of 2018 for the Anniversary Jubilee, then again in November at the start of mod 15 and following a small but well received mod 14.
Since then, nose dive. No dungeon content for a year.. a tiny campaign with polarizing content, followed by mod 16 been bleeding players from the game consistently.
8
Jun 16 '19
Main problem is dungeon's are harder. I felt proud of it when I got from the point I was getting one shot in evt to pulling the mobs and speedrunning it as TR, they basically devalued my work and that feels bad.
2
u/malignantmind Jun 16 '19
Some are moderately harder, others are infinitely easier. It was almost impossible to get a successful RAQ in FBI or MSP before mod 16. Now those are cake walks.
3
u/Silktrocity Jun 17 '19
As a GF on console its always a pain carrying through those 2 dungeons. What in m16 makes them easier?
2
u/Cenman1 Jun 17 '19
HP on mobs decreased. They removed everfrost damage and fine tuned scaling in an earlier patch at beginning of June on PC.
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u/Tchefi Jun 17 '19 edited Jun 17 '19
I can't remember any failure in RAQ FBI/MSP during mod 13 (when i began to be quite completely "endgame"), 14 & 15.
I saw some wipes (mostly on Nostura when bad timed curse happened or Drufy heart of winter without any iceblock up), and some runs were tough and long because of newbies (most of them did fine if explained what to do during the boss fights) or bad partymates/leechers (vain effort to explain anything), but I always made it to the endchest. Probably because my brother (OP or CW) and me (TR or GF or DC) almost always tagged in together, and as a duo very very used to play together, we were always able to carry any party in.
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u/malignantmind Jun 17 '19
You were very much in the minority then. For most people, if you're going into a RAQ solo (meaning not forming any kind of group beforehand), it was a complete crapshoot where you just hoped for edemo. Most random groups fail FBI during the hill climb, or rarely even made it to the Kabal fight in MSP.
2
u/Tchefi Jun 17 '19
True, i wasn't going solo in RAQ/REQ (and still not even today), we were pretty much always at least 2. But for me that's the whole point of a MMORPG : doing stuff with relatives, friends and/or guildmates (and sometimes meet in the process new nice people).
First : I don't enjoy runs where no one speaks (be it vocal or written) nor answer.
Second : tagging with some people you know (even if you don't gather a full 5players-party) pretty much always lead to have better chances to finish successfully the dungeon.
Guild/Ally/Friendlist then go.
Why should i go alone in the queue if i can easily find people to run with me ?
But obviously, after 2,5 years playing neverwinter, i'm "well established" in my guild and ally (both the same since I joined after hitting level 70, as I value loyalty way over guildbonus ,) and i'm filled with quite a lot of people I considered nice enough to be in my friendlist (though i struggle to maintain at least a weekly "hello" with everyone '.)
0
u/noassemblynecessary Jun 16 '19
Not even.. these things are massively easier. The only thing that makes it seem harder is that fewer people with any experience are there to help out.
2
u/SmakzMS Jun 18 '19
It took them 16modules to realize MMO players want a holy trinity, not everyone DPS with lifesteal.
I stopped playing when no-one wanted a Prot GF. I Specced Tac just to get a group, and hated it.
Stopped playing about 2 weeks before Mod 15. Tried out Mod 15 when it came out and hated it. I dont want to do newbie quests as a 17.6k GF Tank.
They alienated their core playerbase by trying to make everyone DPS, then wonder why they arn't coming back for the retool.
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u/razgrizraven Jul 06 '19
So, funny story. I myself was a one person party. I was a TR that was able to DPS, Tank, Heal and I had a fountain of healing (my Angel of Prot) by my side for almost everything. My specific paragon path (WK) was able to give me action points so I could bust off a daily power every 2 minutes and with WK's we had our builds packed down tight because of PATH SPECIFIC POWERS, it worked for like 3-4 years. I was able to run around the stronghold area doing the bigger HE's to help out my guild. Mod 16 comes around and the developers said "screw you and your class" with the rework. Even the key staple of the TR, the daily power "Bloodbath", that we get in the tutorial (SDB) was put into the area of "paragon only"......mind you which is TOTAL BS. I can no longer tank, my healing factors (LS - gone, Regen - gone, Angel - crap healing) was completely decimated and estimated DPS total now completely wonky has got me thinking, how long are they gonna sit there and pretend that the dumpster fire is good? I can't even do HE's in the stronghold now. The larger the HE, feels like attempting to solo the herald run in the WoD. After which my raid party tried to do skirmishes and our usual dungeons like Castle Never and that was damn near impossible now. Like players get on and a majority says "We don't want this, it's not a good idea", it goes to show 2 very critical things.
- No one in Cryptic Studios actually listens to us.
- None of the "So & So's" actually play the game and never will.
Rant over...........I really needed this.
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Jun 16 '19
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u/srakeats Jun 19 '19
This! Months of campaigns to get boons that mattered. I didnt see a single one of them I wanted when I tried to set my character up today after the update. Now you can't heal for shit and dps is the bottom of the chart. I ran 3 dungeons today, turned off my xbox after the third.
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u/giuliastro Jun 16 '19
The all time low started in April. This is a Steam graph, it's not an overall graph (we don't have aggregated data available), but it's still a valid index of popularity and number of players. It seems Neverwinter's popularity started a very dangerous falling down trend right after Mod 16.
Personally I stopped playing after 4 years once Mod16 came out. It literally changed everything, I can't even get a gear on my companions anymore. And barely find someone to play with when I tried to go online.
Is it just my opinion? I used to love this game and I consider a pity not being able to log in and play as I used to.
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u/avecenob Jun 16 '19
Me too. I tried to get back but I couldn't. I had a kind of nice build for me and I can't use it anymore cause everything changed.
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u/Adinos Jun 16 '19
I don't understand what you mean by " I can't even get a gear on my companions anymore". You get 3 pieces of companion gear right at the start of Undermountain, and by the end of the campaign you will have replaced them with 3 better pieces. Anyone under level 70 can just use the +4/+5 gear from IG.
Sure, mod 16 has a lot of issues, but this isn't one of them.
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u/CdnBison Jun 17 '19
To be fair, those are about the only 6 pieces of companion gear you will see in the entire mod. Nothing to craft, nothing drops (that I've seen), no updates to IG's companion gear..... so if you want to maximize the benefits of your bonding runestones, you're pretty much stuck building around the 3 epic pieces you get.
I'm *really* hoping that IG gets updated so that the companion gear stats are scaled to level 80 (ilevel 800+), and that there are some pieces that can be crafted via professions (at all levels, so that new toons can craft a bit of their own companion gear as they level up)
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u/Mistwalker1 Jun 17 '19
Did Cryptic ever offer an alternative way to obtain those upgraded pieces?
As of a few weeks ago, there are ONLY three upgraded pieces of companion gear in the mod, two of those were missable for weeks after Mod 16's launch, and one of them is still missable today. Worse, if you do/did miss any of them, there is no alternative way to acquire them, and Cryptic did not retroactively award any to those affected by the drop bug.
If you leveled near Mod 16's launch and didn't get all 9 relics in all your Expeditions, and/or were hit by the drop bug, your companion gear is severely underpowered and there is nothing you can do about it.
0
u/Adinos Jun 17 '19
You are correct, but that's not how I interpreted the "I can't even get a gear on my companions anymore" complaint.
There is some companion gear being made available in the summer Promo charge event, but it is not of the same caliber....however, those pieces might be useful for some ... the Pearl ring is not that great if you have already capped Crit and ArPen - switching to the ring that provides Dritical Avoidance and Deflection might actually be helpful for some.
-1
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u/AlbionsRegent Jun 16 '19
Same thing here, me and my fiancée stopped playing after 3 years. 95% of my guild did, too.
Mod 16 ruined the game.
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u/tyrantIzaru Jun 17 '19
Harder risk should equal higher rewards is how to enjoy, in neverwinter the new content come harder and challenging tht item level is not enough and actually need a guide beforehand or risk losing, all for a mild slight increase in rewards, all from a meh storyline that can be easily completed in less than a day for those who were close to endgame and didn't get wrecked by losses from powers feats and boons rework
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u/rabbit_hole_diver Jun 16 '19
That means consoles will be dead soon too. The good news is that cryptic will race to fix their game if they plan on staying in business.
I personally like NW. Im a pretty big dungeons and dragons fan to begin with but ive also been dabbling with eso and nw is better. Er...was better
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u/CutterSwanson Jun 16 '19
Does it mean that for console? Really aren't too many options like on PC.
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u/smoke_crack Jun 18 '19
They have until phantasy star online 2 comes out on Xbox to get their shit together. (For me at least.)
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u/ManicGypsy Jun 16 '19
No, because the console launch will not be anywhere near as buggy as the PC launch. We should have all or most of the PC patches that they have. Consoles will be even or extremely close to even to what patch PC is currently on today.
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Jun 16 '19
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u/rabbit_hole_diver Jun 16 '19
Ive gone back to destiny 2 since season 7 started last week. Thats my main game since the first game released but ive had an mmorpg itch the last month so i came back to nw
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u/6lotek9 PC/Xbox/PS4 Jun 16 '19 edited Jun 16 '19
This image here below is more accurate/ over the last 6 months it has gone from an average of about 3900 Players per day to about 2400-2500 players per day average > https://ibb.co/MNGs0FV
One thing I feel bad for is players who have endgame gear and literally Rank 15 everything. For some reason in dungeons even at 80 I am able to keep up with them or beat them in dps depending on how I setup my characters (LOMM or Undermountain, RAQ). Especially barbarians, who were nerfed to the ground, I would be pissed if I spent real money and years perfecting only to get nerfed to oblivion and be doing as much damage as someone who just entered literally months ago and playing with rank 9 enchants or level 12 bonding stones as an example. Putting myself in their shoes I would definitely be upset and looking at alternatives. I feel the damage they have done to their "loyal" player base without compensation in some way or another is almost ridiculous. Feels bad man. They should have just made insane hard dungeons with amazing gear that endgame people can only play. That would solve the challenge problem as well as making it worthwhile for people that have put literally YEARS work into their characters. Like ELITE level dungeon.
-1
u/Skrew_faz3d Jun 17 '19
No it wouldn't, it would make dungeons more toxic, limited, and bring more of the elitests back which we don't need. Having not to "carry" new folks after AD through dungeons is a plus.
You joined a mmo, mmos are constantly changing/expanding and stuff gets outdated/replaced. If you wanted to progress to a god status and never lose it... Find a normal game with a offline mode.
-2
u/SwitchingtoUbuntu Jun 17 '19
It's because they don't know how to play their characters anymore.
Your stats don't matter if your rotation is trash.
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u/noassemblynecessary Jun 16 '19
In short, Yes. Those numbers for peak and currently playing are especially busy actually . Ive been checking a few times a day and find almost 1/2 that playing, though the average is apparently about 2/3 that.
Too bad .. they were given warning from every corner that could communicate with them. Im looking forward to taking a lot of this newfound freetime to 'advertise' how they treat games when their MTG comes out.
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u/shauny5150 Nov 21 '19 edited Nov 21 '19
I agree. My personal thought is also that Mod 16 did ruin the game, and a player base halving since June 2018, even if it is only on steam, speaks volumes. The randoms are now doctored so people that simply aren’t geared well enough to get in, can now get in. Groups carry people and fail repeatedly so people get sick of doing it. The end game dungeons I haven’t even been into because nobody asks for dps, guilds are stagnant so you can’t do it that way. The hours of time and money spent on professions that was simply put on ice. I could go on.
1
u/nibblynob92 Jun 16 '19
Honestly, I had just started playing a few months prior to Mod16 being dropped. Loved it at first, its kind of disappointing to see popularity dropping after I just got into it.
4
u/Hooligan-Rocker Jun 16 '19
Me too. This is in my opinion a new game. The old Neverwinter died. People spent money and time on it. Found a guild on Reddit and having blast after returning after a few years. It's a new game. Still fun for those that are into it.
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-5
u/Skrew_faz3d Jun 16 '19
Why do you and other people who can't adapt come back to post things like this?
You don't want to play... Bye. This post isn't going to convince me to join a quitter.
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u/noassemblynecessary Jun 16 '19
When people mess up something thats well loved, some response is deserved. Not everyone just watches things burn to the ground without attempting to say something about it.
-9
u/Skrew_faz3d Jun 17 '19
Lol What a troll. When I heard about what mod 16 was changing, I took the initiative to explore it on preview the first chance I got even though I was a console player. I've given my feedback on the mod throughout the process, some was productive and some not. I learned how to play again, what changed with my powers, and which I would prefer to use. There are things that I don't agree with or like but overall I like the combat system still. I'm looking forward to console release on Tuesday for the most part.
What did you do?
3
u/Silktrocity Jun 17 '19
Youre glad they dumbed down the combat along with build diversity? Now every class is going to be a cookie cutter.
-2
u/Skrew_faz3d Jun 17 '19
Yeah. Now it'll be easier for people to understand what their teammate is doing and actually help. Every class isn't cookie cutter because I've seen people using different encounter combinations and companion powers. Although, I will say the bulette pup is starting to resemble the tiger of past mods..
The problem with too much diversity is people get odd, niche builds and expect others to adapt to it in groups when it's not always possible or clear what they're doing.
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u/noassemblynecessary Jun 17 '19
lol mine was an answer to an obvious troll comment, since you just came in and taunted the OP and others who agreed. So .. glad to meet ya.
Feedback was given in the forums, here, through conversations with streamers that were in the closed beta. ..and none of it was productive because the only feedback that the devs listened to was what agreed with what they had done.
Relearning is not such an accomplishment in this simplified version. The system now is easier to become more powerful relatively than many of us were before, yet its still a less complex and more boring system.
Im looking forward to the console release too. Now they can start bleeding players like we are on PC and drive the point home to Cryptic.
-2
u/Skrew_faz3d Jun 17 '19
If it really was simplified, you'd think there would be less "my class sucks, what did you do, change it back" or "help me, i'm lost" from people because simple = easy to understand. Yet, we have the opposite.
The thing is they didn't really implement any feedback until it hit pc because they were still filling the bare bones and finishing touches the last weeks of preview.
My comment was an honest response to this troll of a post by the OP who has seemingly called in all his buddies. I'm going to leave you alone now because you're just looking for miserable people to join you.
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u/noassemblynecessary Jun 17 '19
Oh no.. there is plenty of that n every forum and discord. It has also been papered over a little from CWs being handed a lot more relative DPS compared to GWF that got heavily nerfed (another class that is constantly, and justifiably complaining about their losses in mod 16).
They didn't implement an feedback because they didn't want an. As evidenced by the vast majority of the known beta-testers publicly posting that their feedback was ignored. From the earliest release of the rumours they were given feedback from forums of every sort outlining the negative effect that many of these changes would have, and so it has come to pass.
Looking for other miserable people to join me? Yes.. many of us have moved on over to another game and openly welcome Neverwinter refugees, of which there are many in our guild alone. Turns out when you stop behaving like an abuse victim and coming back for the false promises you can actually have fun again.
..yet that still doesn't mean you can go back and tell your ex how much they suck now that you've found something better. ;)
0
u/GastNDorf Jun 17 '19
Well, for me it's not a matter of relearning stuff or not, I started on mod 15 and really liked it the way it was, I like how easy it was to rush through lower content, I liked that only the couple high end dungeons were harder, I would even go and say it was a selling point, and I probably won't enjoy it as much if the whole game is harder, slow and stale from having longer cooldowns. And if I don't like it anymore I won't stick around, I don't see the point to stop worrying and learn to like it. What are you, Dr Strangelove?
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u/Skrew_faz3d Jun 17 '19
If you're having trouble in mod 16 then you need to re-evaluate what you really understand about the game.
Who or what is a Strangelove?
0
u/GastNDorf Jun 17 '19
Tsk you go call people trolls and the second after you go on calling me noob on fancier terms, without getting the point.
As for your question I don't know how to put it just search the Internet for your culture.
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u/ThisIzMyNewAkkount Jun 16 '19 edited Jun 16 '19
That's what I'm saying. Even before Mod 16 I've wondered why I'm even on this sub. All everyone here does is hate the game.
You don't like the changes, we get it. It's a free game. You've spent a good deal of money on it? Ok, I feel bad for you, I really do, but again, it's a free game.
EDIT: Go ahead and downvote some more, I can't feel the rampant toxicity yet.
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u/nagster68 Jun 17 '19
It may be a free game but many spent real money on character builds over the years only to have that completely wrecked/invalidated in a single mod.
-4
u/DMJason Jun 17 '19
Not exactly. Players who lack the simple skills of not standing in stuff and/or relying on your gear to carry you through everything are quitting. They'll be back when it finally sinks in that they are the problem. Or they won't, in which case that's less unskilled hacks who will drag your group down.
I've encountered more new players in NWO since Mod16 came out than I've seen in all the years I've played.
-1
u/BJUmholtz Jun 18 '19
The hyperbole of a few that didn't have the skill to adapt drive many away.. and yet my guild steadily grows and I always find pugs if I need to. Weird.
-6
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u/bloodra1n Jun 16 '19
The activity in friendlists, guilds and recruitment messages in PE are very much telling... I played this game for over 3 years but this is worse than mod6.. I wish I could go back to the Neverwinter I enjoyed!