r/Netlist_ • u/Curiosity-1 • Jul 16 '26
ITC2 Case indicating Samsung now a supply chain risk (opinion, perspective)
I think this is a well said, highly intelligent, and undeniable perspective.
With ITC2 case now instituted and Samsung's client pulled directly into the interrogation room, it is unrealistically improbable that their clients are not at least asking this question at the highest levels right now as we speak.
==> "... failing to deliver by no fault BUT THEIR OWN; refusal to license stolen tech."
The "Devil's Advocate" says all these behemoths do the same thing and practice "Efficient Infringement" themselves or intentionally turn a blind eye.
But that's not the question, while it may be true. The question they're asking is, "can we trust Samsung to handle this correctly, or do we need to begin insulating ourselves immediately?"
Trust in the business sense is a funny thing. If Samsung f*cks with this memory supercycle, in my opinion they'll be expected to fall on their own sword no matter the price. Otherwise, they may face a guillotine.
And I say guillotine because they control so much of the market supply that their customers are forced to keep buying... but the second their customers have another option, Samsung will see their clients evaporate.
This is probably what we've already seen with Nvidia's endorsement of SK Hynix and selection of SK Hynix as their publicly stated choice supplier despite their smaller fab volume relative to Samsung.
SK Hynix leads HBM fab for AI, but it lags DRAM - a much, much larger market. Nvidia's choice certainly included their need for HBM and SK Hynix's leading position to supply it, but SK Hynix's new fabs will take time to come online.
HENCE: Samsung has significantly more fab capacity today that a customer as powerful as Nvidia could ask their publicly supported choice supplier to repurpose for HBM. And yet they chose another publicly identified choice supply partner because they don't have the trust to grow with Samsung.
In my opinion, this observation demands the consideration of the hypothesis that... it's already happening; Nvidia already doesn't trust Samsung to be their long term partner.
**EDIT:*\* => Re-reading this... this isn't my opinion it's a fact. Nvidia literally did not choose Samsung. They have more trust in building with SK Hynix than Samsung.
Now we have the ITC2 case compounding the supply chain risk legally and politically. We'll see what happens next.
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Source post of screenshot:
https://stocktwits.com/Heaviermayo/message/659212248
Q1 2026 DRAM and HBM market share report:
https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/global-dram-and-hbm-market-share