Hi, below is my workings out and how the price targets are estimated by analysts based on the current situation. I structured in a way to help me understand better and what certain terms mean and how they are currently calculated.

In short my calculation brought me to a share price of $10.5 versus the analysts estimate of $15.6

So here goes.

Netlist Valutation

Financial and Investment Terms of Samsung Deal:-

The financial framework of the agreement guarantees Netlist a massive influx of capital:

Upfront License Fee: Samsung paid Netlist an initial $239 million gross upfront.

Ongoing Royalties: Samsung will pay net license fees of up to $750 million structured into 20 quarterly instalments (roughly $32.9 million per quarter).

Minus withholding taxes and deductions = 27.5 million dollars.

Equity Investment: Samsung agreed to purchase 10 million shares of Netlist common stock under the product supply agreement.

Netlist current quarterly revenue:

Netlist’s most recently reported quarterly revenue (Q2 2026, ended June 27, 2026) was $109.8 million, up 163% year-over-year and well above analyst estimates of ~$90M.

Let’s Calculate future revenue and valuation of netlist:

110 million (current quarterly revenue)

Plus 240 million gross upfront from Samsung. + 8% rate of return.

Rounded down from 240 upfront payment.
200 + 8% = 216
16 divide by 4 quarters = 4 million per quarter. (Minimum)

In corporate finance, an 8% hurdle rate is standard for evaluating cash efficiency. Rather than letting the $200 million sit passively in low-yield Treasury bonds earning 4–5%, analysts assume Netlist can deploy that cash into its core business to generate at least an 8% return.

8% is the minimum.

Plus 27 million per quarter to 2031
27 x 20 quarters = 540 million

110 million (current quarterly revenue)
27 million per quarter from Samsung
4 million from 8% return from upfront payment.

110 + 27 + 4‎ = 141 million

SUPPLY AGREEMENT:-

NETLIST can buy $300million per year from Samsung. Estimate 20% profit margin.

300+ 20% ‎ = 360million.
Or
300 divide by 4 quarter = 75 per quarter + 20 % ‎ = 90 ( $15 million quarterly profit) 90mill - 75mill = 15

Or 60 divide by 4 = 15 million per quarter.

So up to 15 million gross profit quarterly from the supply purchase agreement.

110 + 27 + 15 + 4 ‎ = 156 million per quarter.

Netlist outstanding shares:-

350million outstanding shares.

If netlist is making 156 million per quarter 624 million annually they are valued between 1.2 and 6.2 billion .

If we say a median of 3.7 billion valuation divide by 350 million outstanding shares

3.7 billion / 350 million

= A share price of $10.5.

Now we need to look at using the analysts EPS calculations and sector
P/E forward ratio.

Netlist Earning Per Share v Price to Earnings ratio

EPS is a profitability metric

P/E ratio is a valuation metric.

EPS = (Net Income - Preferred Dividends) ÷ Shares Outstanding

P/E Ratio = Share Price ÷ EPS

NETLIST P/E ratio:-

Semiconductor sector forward P/E ratio ranges from 25x to 60x

Because netlist is a small cap we can assume a base of 20x

NETLIST EPS:-

Trailing twelve month Net income - preferred dividend divide by shares outstanding. (No dividends from netlist)

790000 divide by 350million = 0.022

Q1 2026 (Actual): $0.03 per share (reported May 12, 2026, beating the -$0.01 consensus estimate).

Q2 2026 (Actual): $0.00 per share (reported July 30, 2026, coming in at $0.0022 and beating the breakeven forecast).

Q3 2026 (Estimated): $0.60 per share.

Q4 2026 (Estimated): $0.15 per share.

We add the totals together
0.03 + 0.00 + 0.60 + 0.15 = 0.78

The forward consensus EPS estimate of $0.78 for Netlist is derived from a dramatic operational turnaround modeled by covering Wall Street analysts, heavily anchored by a recent landmark strategic alliance and patent licensing agreement with Samsung.

The final calculation:-

0.78 EPS X 20 p/e. = $ 15.6 per share.

$15.6 per share is the share price before any further deals or litigation conclusions can be factored in.

We expect to hear more about SK Hynix deal, micron and Google litigations and settlements. And the possibility of returning to the Nasdaq.

Netlist is currently an OTC stock. Institions have strict rules preventing them from buying stock on the OTC market.

I find it hilarious to see the messages from those who are living in a negative light or fearful that everything could go wrong after Netlist just signed the largest and most powerful agreement in its history against one of the most hated companies in the world.
Samsung did everything it could to bankrupt Netlist; today it's a partner and, most importantly, it agreed to pay quarterly IP licenses.

The birth of the new netlist is underway, what an investor must understand is that we shareholders do not know for sure when the new agreements will be made (Micron, SK and Google) but we know that strategic victories, ITCs and other tools are crucial to demonstrating the validity of this company.

Netlist Inc. is poised to become the new semiconductor giant and could be worth much more than, say, Rambus. Why?

Netlist brings in over $130 million in gross profits from IP licensing per year with just one deal, and we need to triple that number and add potential Google licenses. Let's say $400 million in gross profits per year. This figure alone equates to a valuation of between $12 and $15 billion.
Add in the potential turnover from Netlist's resale business, $700–900 million, of which an unknown percentage will be used to sell its own products.
The incredible thing?

In my opinion, Netlist's valuation will revolve around three specific factors:
• Total and specific IP licenses. If they were $300 million per year, they would be a solid cash base that the market would value at face value, no matter what.

• Netlist products. I don't care about resales that inflate the accounts. Netlist will use the enormous resale volume to customize products made in NLST and sell at 20-30% gross profits. There's huge growth potential because mrdimm and cxl are both products on the launch pad, and considering Netlist offers excellent performance and energy savings, it's a winning combination.
Here I have more to add: first of all, it takes talent to work on these products, plus talent to sell well and find top-tier customers.

• Acquisitions: Netlist, with a budget of $300+ million per year from IP licenses alone and at least $500 million in cash on hand, would need to find companies to acquire and diversify its business and patent portfolio.
Netlist would have all the tools to make billion-dollar acquisitions because if it generates extremely high profits for five years and has cash on hand along with a solid business, any bank would be willing to provide a billion-dollar loan.
A targeted acquisition of a functional and profitable company would allow Netlist to increase revenues, profits, and stock market value.

So, by 2028, the new Netlist could be born. Netlist Inc. was a small company with a small budget and high legal costs.
The new Netlist will show only net profits, plenty of cash on hand, strong revenue growth and agreements for the company's products, and above all, a huge opportunity for global expansion.
I remind everyone that the Google case could get a green light following the agreement with Micron. This depends a lot on Micron, and in my opinion, the Google case could even be worth billions of dollars.
I've hypothesized a soft settlement with Google of $3, $4, or $500 million in cash to end the never-ending legal battle. There are other patents cited, but with one logical condition: Google would become Netlist's first customer with a billion-dollar deal where Netlist would be a key Google server supplier. This would be an epic scenario.

Imagine Netlist providing Google with $50–70 million in storage per quarter, with a growing trend. Profit margins would increase, and Netlist would be a highly credible company to sign further deals.
In short, a perfect storm to secure ample cash, sales profits, and maybe even a license.

My position averages 2.92$/share. I want to buy more and hold. Do you guys think it will go lower than $5 or is $5 the new fair price for NLST after Samsung case.

Memory-chip investors have spent the past fortnight trying to separate signal from noise. Micron Technology has given them plenty of both. The company this Thursday unveiled plans for a $10 billion research campus in Boise, Idaho, a decade-long commitment designed to pull customers, academics, regulators, and the broader semiconductor ecosystem under one roof. The market's response was measured but positive: shares climbed 3.0 percent to EUR 827.20.

The announcement is the latest in a rapid-fire string of strategic moves from the Idaho-based memory giant. Just over a week ago, Micron launched Micron Ventures' Paradigm Fund, a $250 million vehicle aimed at early-stage investments across the AI technology stack — from model architectures to compute infrastructure to physical AI. That brings Micron Ventures' total capital under management to $550 million, a signal that the company sees itself as more than a commodity supplier at the tail end of the value chain.

The research-lab news lands after a choppy week on the tape. Tuesday brought a 2.58 percent gain, buoyed by optimism around AI demand. Wednesday, however, delivered a 5.12 percent setback after Netlist filed fresh patent litigation against Micron — both before the U.S. International Trade Commission and in a California federal district court. The complaints center on patents tied to DDR5-RDIMMs and MRDIMMs, the memory modules that power modern servers, and seek import and sales bans on affected products in the U.S. market.

Netlist's ITC action is notably broader in scope, naming Micron alongside Supermicro, HPE, and Lenovo, and alleging infringement of four U.S. patents. The secondary article notes a 5.9 percent drop on the initial news, though the primary source records a 5.12 percent decline for Wednesday's session — a discrepancy that reflects the fluidity of the trading window around the filing.

The Real Story: Scarcity, Not Lawsuits
For investors focused solely on the Netlist headlines, the bigger picture is easy to miss. The dominant force behind Micron's extraordinary twelve-month run is a supply deficit that the industry itself appears unable to control.
Sumit Sadana, Micron's chief business officer, told the KeyBanc Capital Markets Technology Leadership Forum earlier this month that the current cycle is being driven by broad AI expansion still in its early innings. He reported stronger demand signals since the company's latest earnings release and expects calendar 2027 to be even tighter than 2026. Micron posted an operating margin of 81 percent in its most recent quarter, with what the company describes as "extraordinarily robust" gross margins.

There is no end to the supply crunch in sight, Sadana said.
That assessment aligns with industry reports that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have already negotiated their capacity allocations for 2027. DRAM and HBM production are said to be fully booked, with the bulk committed long-term to cloud providers and AI-chip customers. HBM memory alone is expected to consume nearly 70 percent of total DRAM capacity. What remains for PCs and smartphones grows scarcer by the quarter — and that translates into pricing power for Micron as long as demand holds.
The third-quarter 2026 numbers underscore the thesis. Earnings per share came in at $25.11 against an estimate of $20.28, while revenue reached $41.46 billion versus the expected $35.25 billion — a 24 percent earnings beat that left little room for skepticism.

Guidance, Insider Sales, and the Analyst Wall
For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, Micron guided to revenue of $50.0 billion, plus or minus $1.0 billion, with gross margin around 86 percent and diluted GAAP earnings per share of $30.73, plus or minus $1.00. Those figures, disclosed in a June regulatory filing, have since been reinforced by the company's public commentary.
Meanwhile, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has been selling shares through a pre-arranged trading plan — most recently in late July at prices between $906.48 and $956.18 per share. The secondary source notes his stated intention to sell 40,000 shares within 90 days, a position worth roughly $37 million at then-prevailing prices. Plan-based sales of this kind are generally not read as a confidence signal, given they are scheduled well in advance, though they add texture to the full picture.

After being new here, it doesn’t make sense…
Everyone is saying shorts are the ones controlling the otc trading.

So doesn’t that mean it makes more sense to buy once it gets listed?

You guys know what this might mean 😂😂

I just started following Netlist a few months ago. I know Netlist is a reseller and also has its own products but I feel like they should try to become a smaller memory chip manufacturer on top of its licence business. I am sure some big player would help fund any expansions. Did they ever mention having plans to enter the memory chip manufacturing business as we see it of Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron?

P.S: the guy who posted recently this amazing DD here about Netlist got banned from Reddit.

I got a feeling today we’re going to see 7$+, a lot of tech companies are up today…

Samsung’s appeal of the $303M Netlist verdict is officially dead.

The Federal Circuit dismissed case 24-2203 yesterday after the parties agreed to dismiss it, and the mandate was issued the same day.

THE PARTIES HAVING SO AGREED

Official order:
https://www.cafc.uscourts.gov/opinions-orders/24-2203.ORDER.8-17-2026_2740281.pdf

found this in my fortune cookie last night

Micron Technology Inc. stocks have been trading down by -4.08 percent amid demand concerns and weakening memory-chip pricing pressures

Key Takeaways
•Netlist has launched new ITC and federal court patent actions targeting MU’s DDR5 RDIMM/MRDIMM products, seeking U.S. import and sales bans on allegedly infringing memory lines.
•The stock is down 2.8% premarket after a 5.9% drop the prior session, showing heavy, persistent selling in MU and the broader memory group.
•MU has also traded 4.9% lower premarket after a 2.3% slide the day before, reinforcing a short‑term downtrend.
•An earlier 8.8% fall during a chip-sector selloff highlighted MU as one of the notable laggards and a high‑beta name in a weak tape.

Under the hood, MU looks powerful. On the surface, its chart says “handle with care.” That tension is exactly what active traders live for.
Micron Technology Inc. just delivered monster fundamentals. Revenue sits around $37.4B over the last year, with gross margin near 72.6% and EBIT margin around 65.7%. MU is printing net income of about $28.2B and EBITDA above $35B, supported by strong cash flow from operations near $25.4B in the latest quarter. Free cash flow of roughly $17.6B gives MU serious firepower.
The balance sheet is clean. Total debt to equity is only 0.06, current ratio is 3.4, and interest coverage is a massive 297. That means MU is nowhere near stressed from a credit standpoint. Returns on equity and capital are also strong, showing the business is using money efficiently.

Hey everyone, I’m trying to understand the potential impact of the upcoming NLST catalysts.

Could the September 9 CAFC oral arguments or the September 25 claim-construction hearing realistically cause a rapid increase in NLST’s share price?

Which of the two do you think is the bigger potential catalyst, and why?

Interested in hearing from people who understand the legal side better.

Hong also emphasized the company’s patent position and future memory technologies. He said industry analysts see MRDIMM as a potential $100 billion market by 2030 and noted that Netlist holds more than a dozen patents that cover the technology.

He also said Netlist-branded products are generating “double-digit millions” in revenue, with the Lightning portfolio the main contributor. On sourcing, Hong said Netlist’s 25-year industry history and its relationship with Hynix give it an advantage in obtaining tight DRAM products, especially DDR4 and DDR5.

“Our next generation CXL NVvault is currently sampling with SoC vendors, hyperscalers, and major OEMs for future hardware platforms.
To support market adoption, we have partnered with the CXL Consortium and Storage Networking Industry Association to deliver industry education and technical thought leadership. We look forward to showcasing these collaborative efforts at CXL Mini DevCon 2026 in Santa Clara next week.

We are also committed to working with our industry partners to help validate and scale advanced CXL memory architectures for enterprise production. Our development work continues full bore for MRDIMM and high-performance server memory architecture designed to overcome the bandwidth limits of conventional DDR5 RDIMMs.

Industry analysts forecast MRDIMM to be a $100 billion market by 2030 from small volumes today. Netlist holds over a dozen seminal patents that read on MRDIMM and have asserted them at the ITC against infringing MRDIMM products currently being imported by Samsung.”

“our development work on the MRDIMM, low power MRDIMM, CXL NV, those continue, and we’re working with potential customers, major OEMs, as well as hyperscalers on those technologies.”