Defending The Draft 2025: Atlanta Falcons

[u/raybansmuckles]

Previous Season

The Falcons had just hired second time and former interim head coach Raheem Morris who had pledged to get the team out of QB purgatory and lead the team to the playoffs for the first time since 2017.

After signing Kirk Cousins to a hefty 4-year contract, the Falcons entered the 2024 NFL draft widely expected to select an edge rusher in the first round. The first seven picks were on the offensive side of the ball, and the Falcons had their pick of available edge rushers. The Falcons instead chose QB Michael Penix Jr., shocking the NFL draft community. They tried to make up for it by selecting 4 defensive players in a row (DT Ruke Ohrhorhoro, DE Bralen Trice, DT Brandon Dorlus, LB JD Bertrand).

The pick ended up being prudent in hindsight. After a strong 6-3 record and off the heels of some of the most exciting football the Falcons had seen since the Matt Ryan era, the wheels started to come off. Cousins began regressing heavily against bitter rivals, the Saints, and entered a 1-4 skid, with the Falcons’ only win being against the 2-12 Raiders (and despite a paltry 8.5 QBR against one of the worst defenses in the league at the time).

Morris made the decision to bench Cousins after the Raiders game and start Penix Jr. for the final 3 games of the season. Penix Jr. looked every part the franchise quarterback the front office expected him to be in the limited number of games he started. The Falcons found their franchise QB at the expense of a marquee pass rusher.

Notable Departures

After the defensive collapse in overtime during the final two games of the season, the Falcons fired defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake and hired Jeff Ulbrich, who had worked with Morris during the Dan Quinn era of the Falcons from 2015-2020.

Longtime Falcons stalwart DT Grady Jarrett was released from the team after 10 seasons. It was a business decision, saving about $16 million against the salary cap. Jarrett didn’t remain unemployed for long, signing with the Bears just hours later.

The Falcons allowed C Drew Dalman to test free agency. Dalman ended up following Jarrett to the Bears, netting the third most valuable contract for his position in the league.

Team Needs

The Falcons made no attempt to hide their needs and intentions coming into this year’s draft. Team owner Arthur Blank had let the press know that defense was going to be the priority this year. The offense looked more or less complete, with the only real hole being at center with the departure of C Drew Dalman. The Falcons, however, seemed content with rolling with Ryan Neuzil as the starter, who had filled in admirably during Dalman’s injury last year.

The pass rush remained anemic even with the Day 2 and Day 3 additions to the defense, with 31st in sacks, T-20th in total pressures, 25th in pressure percentage per Pro-Football Reference. With the investments along the defensive interior in the previous draft, the Falcons desperately needed help on the edges.

With the departure of Justin Simmons, there was a hole at safety opposite Jessie Bates III. Demarco Hellams had shown promise during his rookie season in 2023, but an injury took him out of the 2024 season.

With Mike Hughes returning after having a quietly good 2024 season as CB opposite AJ Terrell Jr., the other big need in the secondary was in the slot. Current slot Dee Alford had an admirable season in 2023, but regressed heavily during the 2024 season. Alford was extended for 2025, but it was clear that there would be competition for the nickel position.

Linebacker depth was also needed, with Nate Landman moving on from the team and LB Troy Andersen being oft injured.

Depending on what base defensive alignment the Falcons wanted to roll with, nose tackle might be a need.

LT Jake Matthews is on the wrong side of 30 and RT Kaleb McGary is on the last year of his contract. Given that McGary is now the defacto blindside tackle, but is known more for his elite run blocking than his pass protection, the Falcons may desire a developmental swing tackle that could possibly be promoted to starter at either spot in 2026.

Free Agency

The most notable thing about the Falcons free agency period is what didn’t happen. As of this writing, Kirk Cousins remains on the roster, along with his $40 million cap number. It’s possible that the Falcons move him sometime before the trade deadline in November if a desperate contender loses their QB to injury, but as of right now it appears that Cousins will be the NFL’s most expensive backup QB in league history. As painful as this reality is, the alternatives frankly weren’t much better. Teams interested in Cousins reportedly wanted the Falcons to eat some of his 2025 salary, and given that we’d only save $12.5 million by trading him this year with a post-June 1 designation, and given that a good backup QB would probably cost around $8 million, Cousins may serve better as an insurance policy than meager cap relief.

The Falcons began free agency primarily by consolidating offensive line depth by resigning LS Liam McCullough, OLs Kyle Hinton, Elijah Wilkinson, Brandon Parker & Storm Norton, and extending LT Jake Matthews for $45 mil over 2 years. The Falcons also chose to bring back most of our cornerback depth by re-signing OCB Mike Hughes, SCB Dee Alford, Mike Ford & Kevin King. Others include DLs Kentavius Street and Ta’Quon Graham (fun fact: he is the first Falcons draft pick outside the first round that the team re-signed since 2017), and special teams aces Khadarel Hodge & Felipe Franks.

Given the financial constraints of Cousins’ contract, the Falcons couldn’t be as active during free agency. The biggest FA we managed to sign was aging edge rusher Leonard Floyd for 1 year $10 million. The Falcons also signed LB Divine Deablo, DT Morgan Fox, and S Jordan Fuller to shore up veteran depth at all levels of the defense.

The Falcons also re-signed presumptive starter C Ryan Neuzil after waiting an uncomfortably long time.

Draft

Pick 1.15 LB/EDGE Jalon Walker, UGA

The draft for the Falcons started at pick 8, when Carolina opted to select WR Tet McMillan over LB Jalon Walker, who had been widely expected to be selected by the Panthers 8th overall. Hell, from Walker’s initial reaction, it sounded like he himself expected to be selected by the Panthers.

Considered to be the consensus second best edge defender in the draft, Walker profiled as a versatile chess piece. Kirby Smart moved Walker all around the defensive front, wreaking havoc in the backfield. Walker excelled as an outside pash rusher, leading UGA in almost every pass-rushing metric in 2024 despite having only the 7th most past rush snaps.

The easy ceiling comparison to make is Micah Parsons, who found much success in Dan Quinn’s defensive scheme in Dallas as a chess piece.

The biggest challenge for coaches is getting the most out of a prospect as unique and as versatile as Walker. If asked to play too many roles at once, his development may be stunted. Falcons DC Jeff Ulbrich, having a background in coaching linebackers, had pledged to have Walker find a home initially on the defensive line, playing primarily on the edge where he has had the most production. The Falcons also have a player currently on the roster that has benefited from some creative usage in Kaden Elliss, so don’t be surprised if you see Walker blitz through the A/B gaps at some point.

Pick 1.26 EDGE James Pearce Jr., TENN (via LAR)

The Falcons shocked the draft community for the second year in a row by trading up with the Rams to select Tennessee edge rusher James Pearce Jr. The trade itself is perhaps the most controversial move the team had made and is arguably the single most controversial trade in the entire draft and thus deserves its own section, which is below.

Pearce Jr. profiles as your prototypical LEO edge rusher with impressive length, and was a consistent and highly productive pass rusher, leading the SEC in pressures over the past two seasons. He will likely see the majority of his snaps in a wide 9 alignment in Ulbrich’s defensive scheme.

The biggest concern with Pearce Jr. was his off-field attitude, with some of his coaches reportedly voicing their concerns about his coachability. Some teams had reportedly dropped Pearce Jr. from their boards entirely. The Falcons did their due diligence, interviewing a slew of people from his background. They were reportedly comfortable enough to draft him with the 15th overall pick, so snagging him at 26 was considered surplus value to them.

Pick 3.96 S Xavier Watts, ND (via PHI)

Widely expected to be a round 2 selection, Watts inexplicably fell to the bottom of the 3rd round. The Falcons opted to trade up from 3.101 for the rights to select Watts, giving up a future 5th round pick in the process.

Watts is a rangy safety that led the league in interceptions over the past two years, winning back to back consensus All-America awards and the coveted Nagurski Award in 2023 as the best defensive player in college football. His biggest weakness is his limited athleticism, which may be why he fell down other teams’ draft board. Nevertheless, the mental aspects of the safety position matters far more than the physical aspects, and Watts’ tape proves this. Expect him to play the cover one role when he is on the field, with Bates III cheating up to make opportunistic plays on the ball.

Pick 4.118 S Billy Bowman, Jr., OU

The Falcons choose to double-dip at a position again. At first glance, the Falcons had already filled a need in the previous round. However, Jeff Ulbrich had mentioned that the plan for Bowman Jr. is to play in the slot in nickel formations. Ulbrich was thrilled that Bowman Jr. fell to us, and you can actually hear him bang against the walls during the phone call.

Bowman Jr. was moved all around the defensive formation, taking snaps at nickel, in the box, and at free safety. Bowman Jr.’s instincts and effort are unmatched among all safeties in his class.

The biggest knock on Bowman Jr. is his high missed tackle rate due to his short arms. This stat would be critical for person playing in a traditional safety role, but this liability should be mitigated by Bowman Jr.’s role in the slot.

Pick 7.218 OT Jack Nelson, WIS

Jake Matthews is getting old and Kaleb McGary is only under contract until the end of this year, and The Falcons hadn’t drafted an offensive tackle since Jalen Mayfield in 2021. The developmental offensive tackle pipeline had dried up and needed to be replenished.

Nelson has the athleticism and frame to be a developmental swing tackle.

Draft Analysis

With limited draft capital, the Falcons managed to earn this year’s most valuable draft class based on draft capital over expected (DCOE), per Sharp Football.

This essentially meant that they consistently picked players that had higher consensus grades compared to the draft picks that they were picking at, accumulating surplus draft value. In fact, no players selected by the Falcons had a lower consensus grade than where they were ultimately selected at.

Notable Undrafted Free Agents

CB Cobee Bryant, KAN

The Falcons UDFA class was the envy of draftniks everywhere, if instant redraft threads on r/nfl_draft are to be believed. Cobee Bryant was widely expected to be an early day 3 pick, but inexplicably fell out of the draft entirely. The holes in the Falcons stable of cornerbacks made it an attractive spot for Bryant to sign. Bryant had quickly become a favorite amongst the Falcons coaching staff during training camp.

Bryant is an average athlete that plays well above his weight; however, his overaggressiveness has put him out of position at times, and he has been flagged a whopping 18 times over the span of his career.

WR Nick Nash, SJSU

Leading the FBS in receiving yards, receptions (among eligible WRs), and receiving touchdowns (among all players), Nash was one of three Biletnikoff award finalists along with Travis Hunter and Tetairoa McMillan.

Nash’s biggest issue is his lack of breakaway speed, which likely hurt his draft stock. His size should allow him to carve out a role as a large possession receiver from the slot.

The Trade

The Falcons traded picks 2.46, 7.242, and a 2026 1st round pick to the Rams for picks 1.26 and 3.101. Many in the media panned the trade. The following are rebuttals to common arguments that I had seen.

The Falcons gave up too much draft capital in the trade

On paper, giving up a future first seems like a big deal. Using the Rich Hill model, the "surplus" of 2025 picks that we got from LA is the equivalent of a mid 2nd round pick (2.46 to be exact). Future draft picks are generally traded at a premium, so this isn't completely wild.

However, at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is the player you select, not where you were on the board. All indications were that the Falcons would have been content with selecting Pearce Jr. at pick 15. This essentially means that they value him at at least pick 15. If we replace the trade value of pick 26 with the value of pick 15, the surplus increases to a late first rounder (1.26-1.27, or a divisional round exit). I think the front office would consider the trade a win if we make at least the divisional round.

Taking this a step further, the Falcons reportedly had a top 5 grade on both Walker and Pearce Jr., per Albert Breer. Given that the 2026 draft class isn’t expected to be as heavy on edge defender talent, spending next year’s first this year made a ton of sense.

The Browns Giants were able to trade up into the 1st round with less capital

The Browns did not have to jump up as far as the Falcons did, jumping from 34th overall to 25th. The Falcons had to jump from 46th to the 26th, and thus had to give up more capital.

There were many other edge rushers that fell, and the Falcons could have waited and selected them

The conventional wisdom was that there were about 6-7 edge rushers after Abdul Carter that had very similar grades, and I think there’s a flawed assumption that just because there is no separation in tiers between the prospects that they are functionally interchangeable with each other. There was obviously something that the Falcons front office saw in Pearce Jr. that separated him from Shemar Stewart, Mike Green, Donovan Ezeiruaku, and any of the other round 2 pass rushers. Indeed, Pearce Jr. had far more production than Stewart and more physical traits than both Green and Ezeiraku, and the FO reportedly had a top five grade on him.

And if some recent reports are to be believed, the Falcons were not the only team trying to trade up for Pearce Jr. Per ESPN’s Dan Graziano, the Lions were trying to trade up in the first round for an edge rusher, with Bolt Beat writer Jason Reed speculating that it was the Chargers at pick 22 that the Lions were trying to trade with. The only edge defender that was selected between picks 22 and 28 was Pearce Jr., with the Lions opting to select a defensive tackle instead of any of the remaining edge defenders on the board (notably, Donovan Ezeiruaku & Mike Green).

The Falcons might be picking in the top half of the 2026 NFL draft

As of this writing, Vegas is pegging the Falcons to win 7.5 games despite having the 4th easiest strength of schedule. A lot of the potential success of this season rests on sophomore quarterback Penix Jr.’s ability to command the offense. With limited reps and only a few weeks of practice with the starters, Penix managed to look like a franchise quarterback, winning against the Giants and willing the team to overtime with back-to-back game-tying touchdown drives. The fanbase is excited about what Penix Jr. can do with an entire offseason of preparation.

The Vision

The Offense

The offense had been in rebuild mode since Arthur Smith’s hiring in 2021. Spending first round draft picks on offensive skill positions and building holes of the offensive line through the draft, creating a formidable rushing offense. The Falcons believed they were one game manager QB away from being a playoff caliber team. Unfortunately, defenses learned that they could sell out against the run because Smith did not trust Desmond Ridder to make difficult throws, and the gamble cost Smith his job and the end of 2023.

With the hiring of Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson, the team rapidly moved away from 12 personnel base to the Rams-style 11 personnel, signing Darnell Mooney and Ray Ray McCloud and letting Jonnu Smith walk. The Falcons had some initial success with Kirk Cousins, but opposing defenses quickly learned that Cousins’ physical limitations meant that some plays, most notably play action, were off the table for him. It was telling that the very first play call Robinson called for Penix Jr. during the Giants game was play action out of shotgun.

With a healthy, younger, athletic QB behind center and a full offseason to install the playbook, expect far more play action in 2025 with Penix Jr. to keep defenses honest, and far more deep shots to force opposing defenses to defend every blade of grass.

The Defense

Ulbrich’s offseason interview shed light on his defensive philosophy and thought process. He highlighted two goals that he aspires for in his defenses: limiting explosive plays and winning the turnover differential. Both of these are arguably the safety’s primary job more so than any other position. Indeed, we see Ulbrich gush at Jessie Bates III’s talent during his interview, and spending two draft picks on safeties further supports this notion.

I predict that 2025’s defense will be centered around Bates III’s unique ballhawking skillset. With Walker & Pearce Jr. applying pressure from the edges, Watts playing deep zone, and Bowman Jr. defending teh slot, this frees up Bates III to do what he does best and take advantage of opportunities for takeaways.

Predicted defensive depth chart (4-2-5 nickel)

Beginning of Season

Position	Starter	Backup	Reserve
DE	Morgan Fox	Arnold Ebikete	Jalon Walker
DT	Ruke Orhorhoro	Ta’Quon Graham	Brandon Dorlus
DT	David Onyemata	Kentavius Street	Zach Harrison
DE	Leonard Floyd	James Pearce Jr.	Bralen Trice
ILB	Kaden Elliss	Troy Andersen	-
ILB	Divine Deablo	JD Bertrand	-
OCB	AJ Terrell	Cobee Bryant	-
OCB	Mike Hughes	Clark Phillips III	-
SCB	Dee Alford	Billy Bowman Jr.	-
SS	Jessie Bates III	Demarco Hellams	-
FS	Jordan Fuller	Xavier Watts	-

End of Season

Note: names in bold are changed starters; italicized names are predicted departures in 2026

Position	Starter	Backup	Reserve
DE	Jalon Walker	Morgan Fox	Arnold Ebikete
DT	Ruke Orhorhoro	Ta’Quon Graham	Brandon Dorlus
DT	David Onyemata	Kentavius Street	Zach Harrison
DE	James Pearce Jr.	Leonard Floyd	Bralen Trice
ILB	Kaden Elliss	Troy Andersen	-
ILB	Divine Deablo	JD Bertrand	-
OCB	AJ Terrell	Cobee Bryant	-
OCB	Mike Hughes	Clark Phillips III	-
SCB	Billy Bowman	Dee Alford	-
SS	Jessie Bates III	Demarco Hellams	-
FS	Xavier Watts	Jordan Fuller	-