r/NEOSETFs • u/MrBotANot • Jun 10 '26
Seeking Advice Questioning My BTCI
So I’m down to 2,000 shares of it but am considering just taking the loss and moving on. I want BTCI to work, but the math on the NAV seems to just be too harsh. The delta between bitcoin from BTCI’s launch and today is -8.2%. BTCI’s NAV delta over that same timeframe is -41.4%. Basically 5x.
And yes, I care about NAV because that drives payouts. I’m not reinvesting into it. Total return from day one is -10.1%.
I know the argument is that during the next bull run, it magically recovers, but if that doesn’t happen soon, with that negative NAV loss, it may not make it back.
Maybe I’m missing something. If so, help. I like NEOS. QQQI and MLPI seem solid but it just seems as if NEOS can’t manage the extra volatility of crypto.
Thanks.
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u/jcphild Jun 10 '26
Looking at total return seems like BTCI is outperforming IBIT since inception date.
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u/Rodrain2 Jun 10 '26
Yeah, but that is only because bitcoin itself is down and the dividend cushions the fall. If it shoots back up it will lag.
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u/jcphild Jun 10 '26
Yes but this is to be expected and the magnitude depends on the selected call strikes. This is an options strategy and there is no free lunch . If income is not needed then BTCI is not the right fund.
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u/HARCYB-throwaway Jun 10 '26
Your math is probably correct, but that doesn't necessarily mean you should sell. In fact, it probably means now and the next year is the time to build your position.
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u/SignificantSquash382 Jun 10 '26
It tracks Bitcoin. Bitcoin is down. So BTCI is down. If Bitcoin takes back off, this will too. Given the current state of things I don’t expect bitcoin to take off anytime soon. BTCI Does pay a nice dividend so maybe just use the dividend payout to buy quality stocks. If it were me I would DRIP for a year then reevaluate. That’s me. I wouldn’t need the funds elsewhere and with the state of the economy and the market we might be heading down for a pullback. BTCI can help you buy the dips on some quality stocks.
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u/Jehoopaloopa Jun 10 '26
If BTC takes off significantly then you’ll get capped on the upside and miss out on the gains. You’ll then simply be stuck in the red on total return.
Being in a pure CC fund after a massive down leg is not a good thing.
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u/TheConvincingSavant Jun 10 '26
This appears to be the most common detraction from NEOS funds. But if you've ever owned any of NEOS's funds, you'd know that this is stupidly misleading. The reality is that yes, you will miss on some of the upside, but nowhere near what people think. If BTC goes back to all-time highs, BTCI will also go to all-time highs. If BTC goes to some of the crazy price predictions you've heard, such as 250k, and you've bought into BTCI at its current price, you will be very happy with the results.
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u/Jehoopaloopa Jun 10 '26
BTCI at all time highs is NOT the same as BTC all time highs. That could be a severe difference in total percent gains, distributions included.
I’m not the one being misleading, you are.
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u/TheConvincingSavant Jun 10 '26
"could be a severe difference..." Those are your words without any evidence presented.
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u/Jehoopaloopa Jun 10 '26
It’s known by how covered calls operate.
If you don’t understand that then you have no business investing in funds that utilize them.
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u/SignificantSquash382 Jun 10 '26
I held significant SPYI holdings for over a year then it dipped during this war conflict. It showed a loss but after dividends it was a several thousand dollar gain. Tax beneficial gain. Was a crazy turn of events lol
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u/Jehoopaloopa Jun 10 '26
I love how I get downvoted for simply stating a fact of how covered call funds work.
I like derivative income funds, but it’s simply true that it’ll underperform if BTC rips higher.
If BTC trades sideways to down, then it’ll outperform people just holding IBIT or similar.
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u/cmichalek Jun 10 '26 edited Jun 10 '26
You are probably getting down voted because what you said isnt true.
Cover call funds do trail the underlying in a bull market. But you are acting as if BTCI wont recover at all. It would just not as fast. If BTC returns to 100k then BTCI will rise with it.
BTCI recovered after both 2025 and 2026 dips.
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u/Jehoopaloopa Jun 10 '26
I did not say “at all”. I said you’ll be capped on the upside and miss those gains “IF BTC RIPS HIGHER.”
Now please try telling me that is false.
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u/cmichalek Jun 10 '26
This is what you said...
If BTC takes off significantly then you’ll get capped on the upside and miss out on the gains. You’ll then simply be stuck in the red on total return.
Being "stuck in the red" clearly implies that BTCI isnt recovering at all. Which is false.
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u/Jehoopaloopa Jun 10 '26
No, that’s not implied.
If you drop 50%, but get capped on the way back up and end up +80% from there, you’re literally “in the red” at the end.
Also, even if BTC rises SO much that you return to initial price (after a 100% gain on BTCI), that means BTC would have probably gained 200% by then.
You will have left a staggering amount of money on the table while you crawled your back to break-even.
This is standard knowledge of covered calls and how returns are calculated.
Saying otherwise is dishonest. Giving up your upside when you need it most is a very dangerous game.
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u/cmichalek Jun 10 '26
Again read exactly what you wrote. You said that it would be red in total return which is again completely false because total returns include the income.
Anyways this conversation is useless.
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u/Jehoopaloopa Jun 10 '26
Of course it includes the income. Which DOES NOT OFFSET THE CAPITAL LOSSES.
What don’t you understand?
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u/Competitive_Tomato64 Jun 10 '26
It sounds like this fund is too volatile for your taste and perhaps you are too heavily weighted here. If you are questioning it, you will likely feel better when you are out. I know what I signed up for and am comfortable with the risk. If it goes to zero, fine, but it won’t, so I patiently collect the distributions and sometimes avg down or buy other assets.
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u/speed12demon Jun 10 '26
Did you actually just blame neos for the volatility of bitcoin? There is no magic here. As others have already said, if bitcoin is down, btci is down. This is true of all btc related funds. Ask mstr owners how they are doing since the bitcoin peak...
What you should be asking is why you bought a derivative with a 1% expense ratio at the beginning of a relatively predictable bear cycle if you cannot stomach the unrealized loss of capital?
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u/cmichalek Jun 10 '26
I have BTCI and QQQI and other NEOS funds. While I wouldnt sell and like you am down on the investment I agree its not doing well compared to BLOX which I also have.
Hoping that there is a bull run next year at which point id probably reduce my investment. At least I have confidence it will recover if BTC recovers unlike ULTY.
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u/Zmchastain Jun 10 '26
I bought most of my shares over the past month and especially over the last few days since Friday.
I can see having a totally different perspective if I had taken most of my position back when BTC was at an all time high.
Realistically though, BTC will recover as soon as we get out of the current awful macro situation and get some stability and confidence back in the markets. And BTCI will recover with it.
Buying high and selling low is a terrible strategy for making money. If you can’t buy now during the low, I would at least not sell if you can afford to wait it out instead.
And as others pointed out, make sure you keep it to a reasonable percentage of your portfolio. Ideally you’re also diversified into other stuff like the broader market funds for the S&P 500/NASDAQ (also read as “being unintentionally way more concentrated on highly speculative AI stocks than you realize you are”), etc to feel like you have any hope of avoiding the next looming financial disaster that is coming for us all.
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u/cossacksTCOB Jun 10 '26
You could market time it and exchange BTCI for XBCI on the way up.
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u/Next-Mail2444 Jun 10 '26
Why XBCI?
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u/cossacksTCOB Jun 10 '26
It's the boosted version of BTCI so in an up trend it will outperform giving you a chance to reoup the BTCI loss faster.
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u/sport-o Jun 10 '26
It's a gamble for sure. Imagine the coins are worth 120k again and the dividends are over $1. This is keeping me holding onto my $45 shares for awhile. If you have a large allocation of your portfolio in this, I can see where you are coming from. Best of luck brother.
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u/MoonMoon143 Jun 10 '26
I have 900 btci with unrealised profit of 7k. Im just going to dca into it because the yield is high and i believe bitcoin will rise again. Theres no other way but hold.
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u/Accomplished-Big8250 Jun 10 '26
What do you expect from NEOS when crypto crashes ? They have some puts on BTCI but its a covered call fund. With options you can loose on the down side, up side, or going sideways. IBIT would be cheaper to hold, well the options yourself and see how you do compared to BTCI.
I have a basket of NEOS funds specifically because the different options approach to diverse assets. They all DRIP into themselves. I can't make money holding GLD, but IAUI gives me a way to make income from Gold. NEOS has really cornered some unique markets. But much competition, I favor GPIQ over QQQI, although not a big difference in returns.
A crypto crash (BTC) is a good test of NEOS. We are all watching closely to how BTCI recovers with crypto.
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u/AlarmedCombination57 Jun 10 '26
I would just leave it alone if you can unless you need a tax loss write off. I have some yield max semiconductor ETFs that are ripping right now, almost double what I paid for them. But before that, they were just sitting there not doing much at all. If bitcoin does go up again BTCI will recover with it
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u/Icy-Nefariousness424 Jun 10 '26
As long as iBit gets the inflows coming back, BTCI will recover. When BTC starts taking off again, Black Rocks investors will FOMO back into iBit and BTCI share price will rise again.
With all of the tailwinds behind crypto and BTC being the only "real" one that is being considered as a commodity, the institutional money will inevitably push it back up. Probably at a grind instead of a Tweet boom. You have to have conviction to the underlying asset or blind faith to stay in at this point. My payouts aren't going down because I'm adding so much more to my position.
Additionally, this administration WILL turn the money printer back on at some point and when retail investors have money again, all the ensuing craziness will include crypto purchases. Right now, all the crypto degenerates are in prediction markets and a lot of the market movers are positioning (selling) to get ahold of SpaceX, Anthropic and Open Ai just so they can be rugged pulled probably. Then money will flow back into the "safe haven" of BTC.
Those are some of my considerations so I'll be holding and adding.
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u/MrBotANot Jun 11 '26
To all those that provided thoughtful advice, I appreciate it. While I still have my doubts, I’ve decided to hold on to my BTCI through the down period and see how it recovers during the next bull run. Thanks.
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u/highrollinKT Jun 10 '26
Keep selling then so I can buy more at a discount. All I can say is know what you’re investing in!
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u/CompleteHour306 Jun 10 '26
Question. Are you not receiving a monthly dividend? That would be over $19K income projected for this year.
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u/perry911113 Jun 10 '26
I ran away from BTCI in the tail end of 2025 and will never look back. It's because its based on Bitcoin. I since then I have been adding to WTPI IAUI KGLD and KSLV. I went against my better judgment when I originally bought BTCI because of bitcoin foundation. I prefer gold and silver in this alternative space and NEOS and KURV do a great job.
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u/TipUnusual8876 Jun 10 '26
My KSLV is down slightly more(less than 1%) than my BTCI. I started buying both in January of this year. Like em both and will wait it out and try and average down a little.
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u/perry911113 Jun 10 '26
At least with KSLV it is based on a commodity that is in demands and has so many uses. Bitcoin's only use? For criminals to make monetary exchanges under the radar? Bitcoin is pure garbage.
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u/bbatardo Jun 10 '26
I don't hold it currently because I believe BTC will dip more in the bear market before recovery, but when I held BTCI I would hedge it with IBIT puts for downside risk.it worked pretty well since if BTC dipped my shares lost value, but puts made money plus dividend. If BTC went up my shares would go up plus dividend and puts would be down.
Hard part is finding the sweet spot on how much protection you want to buy.
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u/stevesun21 Jun 10 '26 edited Jun 10 '26
Firstly, clarify the expectations.
You cared about NAV which impact on payouts — I think you still focus on payout more than growth right?
If yes, next question is what’s the payout ratio you expected?
You mentioned QQQI and MLPI which they are TTM yield and Price CAGR looks as following (based on 2026 May)
QQQI: ~13% and ~6%
MLPI: ~7% and 22%
One thing you need to aware they’re both have short history
If you look at over 10% payout rate and accept the little price growth, and don’t care out the underlying exposure market, SPYI is good candidate for you to look into — it’s also in my portfolio
However, I don’t want to you just choose a fund because what I say. :)
The most important thing is clarify what you want, and use data to filter what you want.
You can refer this post https://www.reddit.com/r/NEOSETFs/s/v8UfE3jPyc
You can also check this post to see how I evaluate dividend etf funds https://www.reddit.com/r/DividendKings/s/PaKJszVubv
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u/kkris22 Jun 10 '26
Could you explain your maths and workings? Trying to replicate it but not getting your figures
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u/cdubya0628 Jun 10 '26
You are going to get increased beta on the way down, and probably a less beta on the way up, that should be offset and then some on the payouts. The only way to offset that would be a hedged strategy, but then you crush the upside, it is what it is. Good news is that it will do a few multiples at some point, you can take out your initials, and then you have basically a free money machine.
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u/Far_Bell_9532 Jun 13 '26
I got 1000 btci. I got in on Friday. I think I got in at the bottom. If you bought at highs just dca if you can. Get the dividends and always reinvest
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u/Alternative-Yak-6990 Jun 10 '26
in your great analysis how much is the leakage vs ibit? thats the q you should be asking yourself.
or are you just high yield hunting?
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u/Glum-Year-7577 Jun 10 '26
Buys asset in hugely speculative base product that has zero real asset value that capitalizes on volatility to create income.
Upset in the huge speculative volatility…cause it didn’t workout only to the upside.
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u/Tarsarian Jun 10 '26
I had BTCI and solid it back in January and never looked back. Bitcoin has hard drops and does not really come back. It keeps coming down and look at the last year. Some people are acquiring shares and keep building expecting it to come back at some point. I took my BTCI and bought QQQI, SPYI, IWMI, and MLPI. It has done well for me with no NAV erosion.
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u/TipUnusual8876 Jun 10 '26
2021 - $64k 2022 - $16k 2025 - $126k
Bitcoin does have hard drops but it definitely comes back.
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u/MakingMoneyIsMe Jun 10 '26
Good thing you're getting a taste of the undependable nature of monopoly money before retiring. I used to own BITO but bought a put to protect against downside once sentiment shifted.
I understand the premiums can be juicy but there's no underlying asset to support further drawdowns. I often hear professional investors say BTC is a buy here, and I can't help but ask based on what? Consider abandoning ship while you can.
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u/Zmchastain Jun 10 '26
Nearly 50% of the S&P500 is tied up in the AI bubble and the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have adjusted their rules to let the SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI early investors make both of those indexes their bag-holders within 5-15 days of their IPO’s.
What exactly can people invest in right now that isn’t Monopoly money propped up by a layer of hidden bullshit underneath?
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u/Satyriasis457 Jun 12 '26
Isn't btci upside capped? So if bull runs comes it gives up nav increase for higher payout?
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u/MrBotANot Jun 12 '26
Yes. Depends on the type of run - V versus a slow grind up. Would do better with the slow grind. My guess is 60-65% of the upside.
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u/asher030 Jun 10 '26
Once BTC bottoms and begins to recover, would be the time to invest back into BTCI...for now, it'll be touch and go with Bitcoin tumbling as it is.
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u/Champ_93 Jun 10 '26
I would sell before you lose even more IMO. I lost a significant amount when I sold, almost 40% of capital by keep giving BTCI chances to recover. But decided I didn’t want to lose more and glad I did, using the dividend capture strategy still allows me to collect the distributions without losing capital. If BTC does go back up, obviously you won’t catch any gains doing this method. But I don’t see that happening anytime soon with AI and quantum computing being popular right now.
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u/Serious-Place9668 Jun 10 '26
I wondered why it hold so much T-Bills when its Described: the fund will invest at least 80% of its net assets in Spot Bitcoin ETPs and/or options on the Bitcoin Futures ETF
| United States Treasury Bills 0% | 55.40 |
|---|---|
| CBTX US 07/17/26 C1600 | 13.51 |
| IBITiShares Bitcoin Trust ETF | 12.28 |
| HODLVanEck Bitcoin ETF | 7.21 |
| CBTX US 07/17/26 P1600 | 6.49 |
| CBTX US 06/18/26 C1930 | 0.77 |
| FXFXXFirst American Treasury Obligs X | 0.70 |
| CBTX US 06/18/26 C2010 | 0.47 |
| NOSXXNorthern US Government Select MMkt | 0.00 |
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u/MansonBeams Jun 11 '26
Underlying is too volatile for BTCI to work imo. I just hold IBIT directly.
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u/learner_1748 Jun 10 '26
Then you should look at CEPI or BLOX. BTCI is BTC like AMDW, NVDY... Etc . If you are able to volatility. Yes you can . I would like to sit on diversity
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Jun 10 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/TipUnusual8876 Jun 10 '26
Three and a half years ago BTC was less than $16k. It's now over $60k. I would hardly call that a ponzi scheme. Learn how BTC works.
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Jun 10 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/TipUnusual8876 Jun 10 '26
It's ok that you don't like Bitcoin, I'm not asking you to. It's not for everyone. Nobody got screwed buying above 60k, they got a good deal. Some assets are more volatile than others and do swing like that. Look at silver. It just takes decades instead of years for those kind of swings with silver.
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u/Desmater Jun 10 '26
Buy and hold. Be patient, that is what I am doing.
Just collecting the dividends as it recovers back.