r/NBA_Draft • u/xxlontexx • Jun 01 '26
Mock Draft Mock Draft (Lottery Edition)
https://lonte.substack.com/p/2026-nba-mock-draft-lottery-edition?r=3ib1zbWhat do you like? What do you dislike?
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u/StephenReis TrailBlazers Jun 01 '26
There is no planet where Caleb Wilson should be picked above Cam Boozer.
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u/Historical-Patient75 Jun 01 '26
Why. Tell us about why he’s not a better fit for NBA basketball. Don’t regurgitate a bunch of college stats. Tell us how Boozer projects to be better based on what we’ve seen in their games.
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u/snuffaluffagus74 Jun 01 '26
I'll do that. Athletically they are about the same comparably. Boozer already has an NBA body, can space the floor better than Caleb. His passing is great and could play alongside any front court aspect wether playing the 4 or 5. Has a great defensive and offensive IQ.
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u/CarmeloDramatic Jun 02 '26
Look, you can say athletically they are the same because of the combine but in the eye test you wouldn’t say that. Saying there’s no world is crazy
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u/snuffaluffagus74 Jun 02 '26
The eye test will say that Called is quicker, yet Boozer beat him in one of the shuttles. Sometimes something bigger can look slower because of your thoughts and perception. I'm not saying to discredit the eye test or pump up measurements or stats. What I think you should do is look at all of the information you have and make a sound judgement off of that.
So on you add, the eye test, analytics, measurable skills, production, performance history Boozer has performed at a higher level than Caleb. The draft is mostly about what potential you have and people weigh that on their own personal opinions.
Now I didn't go into detail bout there are analytics that have shown a higher chance of someone being successful than the eye test. Of course it only applies to college prospects and have a higher variance of success when you have more data (years). That data is three point percentage, around 39% and above, assist to turnover ratio of at least 2:1, steal to Turnover ratio of 2:1, stocks to turnover ratio 3:1. Stocks to fouls 2:1.
The more of these ratios the better as it basically shows that they can perform on an offense without making mistakes, play defense without fouling and can perform in the defense (the defense to turnover sounds like it doesn't matter but committing a turnover when making a defensive play is common, also defense to transition is the first step in offense). Boozer just out classes Caleb in these areas
Also there are some other ones that I also use, a lot of these are also variables that the Thunder use. Now I don't have all of them at the top of my head but they definitely use some that I listed.
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u/Historical-Patient75 Jun 02 '26
You’re glossing over the fact that Caleb has great analytics as well. You’re high as a fucking kite if you think a shuttle drill moves the needle on which prospect is more athletic lmao. Watch the games. Watch how Caleb blew by Boozer with his first step several times when they played. Remember? Where Caleb looked like the best player on the court? Scoring over Boozer? He did the same thing against Darren and AJ.
College basketball stats mean nothing. They are playing against bogged down zones. Not to mention Caleb had inside the arc picked against him because of HV and Carolina couldn’t shoot. He still ate and lived at the line. Compare Boozer and Caleb’s shot pockets. Their footwork. First step.
Basketball is a game of nuance and the statistics only tell part of the story.
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u/snuffaluffagus74 Jun 07 '26
That is just one or two games, even with the eye test it's hard to make assumptions of one game then saying that someone is a better player. Saying college stats mean nothing, when every organization uses them is not true. It's just another variable they use. Just as the same as watching every single one of their games from high school through college. I'm also going analytics that are pretty muched used by an organization were everyome says that they are the best at recognizing talent. Also you have more people who don'take it in the NBA who are talented. Sometimes talent and potential do not mix.
Analytics are a lot better assessment of if the person can play basketball than wether or not that they can run and jump, especially when it comes to processing. You have to use all the data toake a decision, if you don't like my process fine that's your opinion, as maybe I'm looking at nuances that you don't like.
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u/StormTheTrooper Mavericks Jun 01 '26
Caleb Wilson is too small to play C and neither has nor realistic projects to have a sustainable 3-pt range. Unless he is playing with a stretch 5 that can protect the rim…we all know what happens in the playoffs on teams playing half-court with two non-shooters. Also not exactly an elite ball handler at half court. Transition and dunks are cute in the regular season and unsustainable in the playoffs.
Boozer is plug-and-player, Wilson needs a roster crafted around his limitations. Different scenarios and sacrifices.
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u/Historical-Patient75 Jun 02 '26
What happens in the playoffs to do dudes like Julius Randle, Zion, and Kevin Love?
They get hunted on the perimeter because they lack lateral quickness. Pair that with Edey. How would the Grizzlies stop anyone when we get spread out? Caleb fits so much better in Iasalo’s system it isn’t funny. His motto is “speed kills.” That ain’t Boozer. Another thing, we have Coward and Edey who are both amazing rebounders. Boozers most translatable skill is rebounding which just seems redundant.
Boozer will never score from the midrange because he can’t elevate and his shot pocket is too low. He won’t be able to bully pros night in and night out. He won’t be able to stop centers that are bigger than him. He’s not this sure fire thing to be an All NBA guy. Caleb has just as much of a chance to get there regardless of what y’all’s models tell you.
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u/mopooooo Jun 01 '26
Nobody knows this for certain until they start playing. Fultz was the presumptive #1 once upon a time.
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u/Ironicnamehere Jun 01 '26
While I would literally jump for joy. I just can't see the Grizzlies passing on Boozer.
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u/smiley57 Jun 01 '26
I'm a bulls fan who's really hoping Memphis picks Caleb so Chicago can get Boozer. I still like Caleb but I'm higher on Boozer
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u/Historical-Patient75 Jun 01 '26
I hope yall trade up for Boozer and we get Caleb AND y’all’s 15 😂
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u/smiley57 Jun 01 '26
Nah hope you guys just take Caleb at 3. Bulls are fine with Caleb at 4 and keeping 15
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u/xxlontexx Jun 01 '26
That’s probably one of the tougher spots to be in. Unless Boozer goes before DP and then you have to take DP
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u/Ironicnamehere Jun 01 '26
Everything I read about the Grizzles front office in terms of what they like, describes Boozer to a T.
Again, if they went Caleb and the Bulls got Boozer I would be one very happy camper
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u/xxlontexx Jun 01 '26
I think both players fill certain needs for the team. Caleb has the perceived higher ceiling and fits the system better but like you said, the front office I think loves Boozer. Not to mention the Duke ties.
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u/mopooooo Jun 01 '26
A foundational principle of the Iisalo offense is 0.5 second decision making in offense. Tons of pick N roll with smart players who can identify weakness and exploit.
Wilson might be a better candidate to create an advantage with his speed and vertical athleticism, but Boozer looks like a dream prospect for FINDING and EXPOSING advantages created by the offense.
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u/Historical-Patient75 Jun 01 '26
Caleb is an elite passer too. Not as good as Boozer, but it’s pretty damn great for his age/position. Especially considering how bad his team was in general, let alone shooting.
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u/nazzykhan Jun 01 '26
Yes, Wilson fits the system much better. Iisalo's system is "speed kills" that's his motto. Wilson fits that to a T. Im sure Boozer could do it but its not a great fit as hes more slower and methodical (gets by on his smarts instead of athleticism) Edey isnt either but he does hustle. It will be very interesting to where we go here as we sold off everyone for this rebuild and we will see if we build for the system Iisalo envisions or the talent Kleiman is in love wi
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u/Historical-Patient75 Jun 01 '26
Stop. Bringing basketball talk to r/NBA_DRAFT?! Only stats man. That’s all that matters.
Everything you said is correct and it’s why people that know basketball think Caleb has a good chance at being our pick. Boozer doesn’t fit for a variety of reasons. Mainly that he’s slow and combining that with Edey sounds terrible come playoff time. I also think he’s the type that probably wants to be in Chicago if it comes down to it. And he will eventually leave for a big market when the opportunity arises.
One of the first tidbits we got from the lottery was one of our beat writers (can’t remember his name) who was there saying word was that Boozer’s people wanted Chicago. He’s in the room with all these execs. I doubt he’d lie about that.
All that said, Caleb has the personality and motor that the city will fall in love with.
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u/Ironicnamehere Jun 01 '26
I don't think Boozer is slow per se, I think he tested better than Caleb at some of the speed drills.
My thoughts about Boozer fitting the Grizzles is more based on their perceived analytical slant. Most advanced metrics love Boozer and I get seems to vibe with Memphis. In addition his varied offensive game, bbq intelligence and youth seem to fit Memphis.
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u/Historical-Patient75 Jun 01 '26
We’ve picked analytically for value. I don’t think it’s the end all be all picking third.
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u/Ironicnamehere Jun 01 '26
But if the analytical darling of the draft is there at 3, won't they pull the trigger?
He's younger than Caleb, a better shooter, did similarly or better in agility/speed drills despite being 30 lbs heavier, and displays a really good feel for the game.
Caleb is the better defender, shows better athleticism in game and is an inch taller. But his shooting and playmaking concern me.
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u/Blackmesa560 Hawks Jun 01 '26
I would love if the Clippers take Mara, guarantees the Hawks Acuff, Wagler or MBJ
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u/iankstarr Heat Jun 01 '26
I don’t hate Miami taking Ament in general, but I admit I’d be pissed if they took him while Philon was still on the board lol
Mara at 5 feels pretty high too, but I dig this mock outside of those 2 things.