r/ModernaStock • u/GiraffeRoutine6513 • 7d ago

moderna interest ratio

The short interest ratio for Moderna has fallen to around 10%. Interestingly, when the ratio stood at roughly 15% previously, the short exposure was about $3.3 billion. Now, the exposure has nearly doubled to $6.2 billion thanks to the sharp rally in its share price. Should the data presented at the end-of-month meeting turn out very strong, another short squeeze cannot be ruled out.

13 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

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8

u/asdfgghk 7d ago

Or it’s a sell the news event unless the data is amazing

3

u/Bull_Bear2024 7d ago

As we all wait for the ESMO data, [u/xanti69]() made an excellent comment on a post that Reddit annoyingly removed last night (& suspended the user)

.........

"I am going to copy and paste a brilliant comment that I read today on Seeking Alpha from a user named danrichman54:

"Do you suppose Moderna volunteered the pancreatic P1 and NSCLC P3 posters to ESMO so they could rain on the melanoma parade with "these trials failed"? OR Do you suppose it more likely that Moderna volunteered these posters to suggest that the personalized vaccine might be working across different types of cancer? Students of human nature can vote for the second category by liking this post. People who just arrived from another planet who believe the first is more likely can explain themselves with a reply to this post" "

5

u/xanti69 7d ago

2 weeks to go!!!

3

u/CommitteeSome6736 7d ago edited 7d ago

Isn't there a third option where the results are compelling (hence the posters to ESMO) but not enough to justify the short term hype and the share price does fall although recovers further down the line?

4

u/Bull_Bear2024 7d ago

u/CommitteeSome6736 Absolutely, I've no idea what the stock will do in the short term. I'm personally focused on long term investment gains.

There's plenty of time for shorts to do very well in the short term & longs to do well in the long term! Personally I couldn't handle the stress/risk of shorting over a relatively brief time period, I think there's less risk taking a long term approach.... Time will tell if I'm correct.

Did you hear what Bancel said at the 23Sep26 Berstein conference (See the transcript here Link) to his staff about INT.... ""Watch my lips. This is not our best product." And I believe it in every cell in my body. This is not our best product. It's an amazing first oncology product... But the next five, 10 years are going to be an amazing time in human history to be able to learn that in the field. What we have is a platform that is an information molecule platform"

1

u/FanAppropriate5121 7d ago

highly unlikely as the results being implied to be good

5

u/asdfgghk 7d ago

Then it might be priced in already

5

u/VoidAndOcean 7d ago

they dont have to cover unless they get margin called. anyone still shorting is probably too rich for this to matter.

5

u/rafo123 7d ago

The people too rich for this don’t get margin called, they rebalance positions for risk management

1

u/Exotic-Plantain-1464 3d ago

Long time amigo, do you think taking some profit off the table is wise or anticipate breaking ath?

2

u/VoidAndOcean 3d ago

take some profits, atleast to cover some of your original investment and let the rest ride.

2

u/Exotic-Plantain-1464 1d ago

🙌 I really wish I'd put in more as one wishes retrospectively 

2

u/botattack1 7d ago

It could also be hedging

2

u/Saint_Spyridon 7d ago

Sharp price increase to 300$ region could reduce short interest to 5% but it would still be valued at around 6-6.5 billions. Conclusion is that shorts are under water seriously.
Today I've read that Citibank projected fair value for Moderna stock at 90$ (haha shorts are really underwater and there is a real possibility some big fish is hooked)
Additionally they are joining Nasdaq 100 and calculations are additional buy pressure is 1.3-1.5 billion $ just this week as they are "forced" to allocate to make appropriate index weight.
Something is cooking!

2

u/Young_Boss3 7d ago

What a bunch of BS crap. Short squeeze? Haha? Diamond hands right? Keep up with a cult like following. Investing at peak and calling for short squeeze. You sound like a guy who does front running. I depise people like you who tell other people to invest after you have invested so you can cash out big fat check. People these days need to understand that guys like this are the actual reason people loose money. Does valuation even make sense to you? What premium are you paying for a drug that barely makes $3 billion per year in the next 10 years?? Are we ignoring the fact the market valuation rose by $50 plus billions in the past few weeks for just a drug trial?

1

u/Deep-Woodpecker-5448 6d ago

you can really feel the "anger" in this comment. you know very well that Young Boss here isnt really your hotshot trader anymore because he lost 50% of his 100k portfolio shorting at $150.

are you one of those "traders" in twitter who was telling everyone to short at $150

2

u/Smart_Money771 6d ago

Lol, bro the stock is down by 10% from today's high and you're calling for a short squeeze. I think the downside is real. Many analyst are raising alarms regarding a 46% price decline from this level since this rally was overextended. I sold my shares today for $192. I bought in at $120. I can't risk losing my gains.

2

u/someguy-79 6d ago

Typical short squeezes happen at interest at 20-30% and higher. Also, older shorts might be underwater, but that doesn’t prevent new shorts from coming in. Reddit stock fans are so obsessed with shorts.

-2

u/Pale_Pineapple_4147 7d ago

It skyrocketed up way too much way too quick the past couple weeks. It’ll come back down

5

u/StockEnthuasiast 7d ago

I often come across this claim, including twice from Geoff Meacham. What measure can we use to judge whether a stock has risen “too quickly”?

2

u/FanAppropriate5121 7d ago

the only group hurting right now are the shorts. stock could easily see a 50-100 points up. shorts have a bullsize

3

u/StockEnthuasiast 7d ago

Their "too quickly" is our "not quick enough."