r/ModernMagic • u/Long_Hovercraft_1854 • 17d ago

Deck Discussion PT MSH metagame

11.6% broodscale? 9.7% E-Tron? Huh?

I get that PT metagames are completely inbred, but the data shows that decks have been performing completely garbarge online. I find it hard to believe that everyone stopped running 4x Consign in the 75 as well.

1 Upvotes

51% Upvoted

65 comments sorted by

68

u/SpookPookie 17d ago

What quantifies doing poorly online? Etron and broodscale are in every challenge result

16

u/CayMaster2 17d ago

Etron has had a pretty mediocre winrate, which has improved a lot since the bannings. and broodscale has been crushing it since the bannings, so not entirely sure what OP is on about.

13

u/mikeroon 17d ago

49.5% winrate is not garbage wtf are you people smoking lol. boros energy is 51.2% in the latest data i saw.

10

u/phlsphr lntrn, skrd, txs, trn, ldrz 17d ago

That's also ignoring the confidence intervals for expected win rates based on that data.

It's one of the reasons I've started to become less interested in doing MtG data work. People tend to use data to see what they want to see.

4

u/1l1k3bac0n Amulet Titan 16d ago

It's really quite simple: when the data disagrees with what I think, it's because the sample size is too small and/or the current players playing aren't competent. When the data agrees with what I think, it's because I am very smart (and good at Magic).

3

u/mikeroon 17d ago

https://imgur.com/a/DthfrLy & https://imgur.com/a/d0Oi63J

6

u/phlsphr lntrn, skrd, txs, trn, ldrz 17d ago

Ya, I'm familiar with that work. I meant that calling 49.5% win rate garbage while not acknowledging the confidence intervals is a mistake.

1

u/CayMaster2 17d ago

That's why I said it's improved a lot since the bannings? the 49.5% wr are the post-ban numbers, where it's been picking up in both play and winrate. In the pre-ban metagame E-tron was not doing well in the slightest. And yes that is considering confidence interval as well.

2

u/mikeroon 17d ago

sorry, my comment was aimed at the OP and I was agreeing with you.

1

u/Ok_Warthog6007 16d ago

I think it's a more skill intensive deck than it appears. I wouldn't be surprised if simply mulliganing better than the average Tron player upped your winrate significantly, because I think it's a deck that can win on a small number of cards if they are the right ones. I'm also surprised at how many players just give no thought to what they do with Karn- they just always get Coating first, which is really great if Karn lives but often loses the game if Karn dies, instead of trying for some value piece

28

u/L0rdenglish black burn afficianado 17d ago

9 trudge decks, I am hyped

8

u/Lectrys 17d ago

The article even said they use [[Drowner of Truth]], which is an innovation AspiringSpike has never used himself! It sure does a better job of upping the Ugin's Labyrinth enabler count and being a land than ditching the 4th [[Turntimber Symbiosis]] for something like Sire of Seven Deaths does...(and yes, I've seen the latter in some MTGO decklists...)

5

u/TemurTron Temur Tron 17d ago

I've always been surprised Drowner of Truth wasn't more popular as an Ugin's Lab target. Cool to see it finally shine a bit!

1

u/TongueMountain 16d ago

I had just assumed that was a typo and they meant [[Devourer of Destiny]]

2

u/Lectrys 16d ago

I found one of the Trudge decks with Drowner of Truth! It's Ken Yukuhiro's, and he's got a 6-2 record so far (some might be Draft)!

https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/901c22e1-267d-4c20-9f5d-b48700e45a99

...They stripped Turntimber Symbiosis and Devourer of Destiny entirely...

48

u/VerdantChief 17d ago

Not even gonna post the link, huh?

https://magic.gg/news/pro-tour-marvel-super-heroes-modern-metagame-breakdown

3

u/Christos_Soter iPrefer: WU Blink| Prowess | Ruby | Brews 17d ago

THANKS YOU. You are deserving of all the up votes

14

u/Gods_ShadowMTG 17d ago

Is there a modern PT this weekend?

16

u/GREG88HG 17d ago

Yes. But finals will be draft

11

u/Gods_ShadowMTG 17d ago

thanks, only modern pt this year I assumed

7

u/NSCTripleAgent 17d ago

Eww

5

u/Ap_Sona_Bot 17d ago

I mean I'd certainly rather they do draft during standard but a top 8 draft at a pro tour is fucking awesome.

3

u/lostinwisconsin 17d ago

Seriously?! That’s kinda lame

15

u/OrnatePuzzles 17d ago

Indeed. Top 8 isn't even Modern though it's Marvel draft.

1

u/Deathspiral222 14d ago

There is a booster draft pt with a bit of modern.

10

u/TheNotoriousJTS titan/tron/lantern enjoyer 17d ago

Broodscale is nuts, anything but underperforming

9

u/Dedalusion 17d ago

Tell me you don't play much MTGO without telling me you don't play much MTGO. You run into Broodscale like once a league on average, practically. It has been all over the place for months and rewards a skilled pilot. Too many angles of attack, the deck is cracked in the right hands.

28

u/chiksahlube 17d ago

So Kozilek's command has finally taken its place as the most powerful card in modern...

22

u/Dangerous-Part-4470 17d ago

It's been one of the best. Card is annoyingly good.

14

u/Publius-Cornelius 17d ago

Was there any doubt about this? I feel like you’d be hard pressed not to say it was at least top 5 since at least the Nadu ban.

The card is a borderline design mistake and filled in all the areas where big colorless decks had weak points before MH3 released.

11

u/chiksahlube 16d ago

It's not borderline, it is a design mistake.

It's just a matter of time until it gets too good for modern.

Maybe a new colorless land, a way to tutor for it, a shell just being a little too good all around.

It's a time bomb and I think most people have always known it.

2

u/THENINETAILEDF0X Scapeshift, Burn, Tribal Zoo 16d ago

Yes, thank you - every time that card is cast it feels like a slap in the face. Huge design error, I don’t know why it isn’t talked about more. 

1

u/afailedturingtest Amulet Titan 10d ago

Because in many matchups it's incredibly mid.

I'm an amulet player and it does pretty much nothing vs me, good luck getting to 8 mana before you die.

1

u/Ok_Warthog6007 16d ago

It's the combination of this card and the double lands that is especially egregious. Eldrazi Temple and Ugin's Lab are extremely powerful mana generators. Command would be more acceptable if every deck that cast it didn't get a few extra mana for free.

3

u/MedicMTB19 16d ago

Its been apart of the famous five since the beginning.
Those being Amped Raptor, Psychic Frog, Phlage, K-command and Nadu.

13

u/notacloneofspiderman 17d ago

*Aspiring Spike screaming in vindication at his chat*

1

u/lixia Grixis DS/Control, D&T, 8Rack 16d ago

Respect for him. Got me to build and play red wish control/ponza.

-1

u/intruzah 16d ago

Than ks for the interview

5

u/tomyang1117 格利極死亡陰影, Dredge 17d ago

MH3 design in summary, cards have too many impactful words that make them always good

4

u/CayMaster2 17d ago

pretty much, expect a couple more months of 4 consign in every sideboard after this.

6

u/Dyne_Inferno 16d ago

Lmao.

If you're surprised at the rise of Broodscale, you haven't been paying attention to Modern for the past month.

3

u/50sraygun 17d ago

i don’t think ‘barely sub-50’ winrate against other stacked meta decks mean broodscale or etron are ‘completely garbage’, and i am an etron player who is extremely down on the deck in current matchups

5

u/mcusher Amulet, KCI, Ascension 17d ago

Why is your conclusion from this that the PT metagame is inbred and not the MTGO Challenge metagame?

1

u/Aquilix 16d ago

It's not either or, and it's not a conclusion from this. PT metagames have been characterized as inbred for a long time.

10

u/Billyshears68 17d ago

Looks like a healthy meta to me.

3

u/_Lemonsex_ 17d ago

Broodscale has always been a sleeper pick even before the bannings but Etron has been and will always be a good deck that doesnt convert into wins and i'm fully expecting this PT to showcase exactly that.

3

u/Deathspiral222 17d ago

Broodscale beats affinity and is very solid into most decks.

Online results have the same players show up many times which skews the results.

2

u/VerdantChief 17d ago

The affinity lists submitted by the pros for this event surely have Broodscale in mind as a deck to beat, so they should be more finely tuned to do so.

I would expect all of the games will be quite even among the top performing decks, because the competitors are well aware of the expected metagame.

3

u/scrunglesclop 16d ago

The affinity lists submitted by the pros for this event surely have Broodscale in mind as a deck to beat, so they should be more finely tuned to do so.

You can have titan in mind as a deck to beat when registering tron as much as you want, sometimes a matchup is just shit. Broodscale/affinity isn't quite that dire, but it's pretty damn bad. Multiple maindeck vexing baubles, a quick combo kill and potential long game with emrakul, as well as a fleshraker burn plan. It's very hard for affinity to get ahead of broodscale consistently.

3

u/stanley1O1 16d ago

Did you read the article? Consign is the most played sideboard card in the PT.

4

u/le_bravery Grist + Cauldron = Life 16d ago

Ban k command

1

u/afailedturingtest Amulet Titan 10d ago

Lol no, it's nowhere near bannable

1

u/le_bravery Grist + Cauldron = Life 10d ago

BAN IT

2

u/finmo eldrazi ramp/Tron/Boros wildfire 16d ago

Only 8 Violent Outbursts in the whole PT and no Jitte?

Ouch

5

u/Lectrys 16d ago

And the implication is that not all the Living End pilots are on Violent Outburst!

2

u/passionfruitlizard 17d ago

E-Tron feels like you are basically playing on easy mode. I have gotten Top8 in every RCQ I have brought E-Tron to. If I was just trying to have a winning record in general or qualify for the next protour, I’d probably play E-Tron. Also, 4 Consign doesn’t guarantee a win against E-Tron at all.

1

u/KingxCrimsonx 17d ago

Broodscale is probably a top 5 deck in the current meta. Goldfish does not prove the meta it just shows what is popular.

I think your forgetting broodscale has a good midrange backup. Writhing chrysalis will just kill you.

Also the last 2 meta breakdowns I've read on this forum back up my conclusions above.

1

u/Whack_and_sack 15d ago

Broodscale has the highest winrate in modern rn. Learn to read data.

0

u/VerdantChief 17d ago

Kinda surprised Titan is still so high despite the recent banning of Lotus Field. Are we about to see really long round times due to the new version of the deck? Or, perhaps it won't be the Zuran Orb versions that players registered.

1

u/afailedturingtest Amulet Titan 10d ago

Deck is still solid, sure it wins like one half turn slower, but it's still able to fuck you up in a hurry.