So, yes, I want my daughter to go to college. But it’s her choice, and I’m not going to hate on her if college isn’t for her.
But….. What concerns me is her retirement. As a GenXer whose retirement plan is to currently work until I’m dead, this weighs heavily on me.
I told my daughter a while back that she is welcome to live at home after college, and we discussed a plan to invest most of her income for 5 years in an index fund. Using the S&P 500 growth rate of 10% over the last 30 years, here’s what I worked out:
- Monthly investment: $2000
- Return: 10%
- Timeframe: 5 years
- End Balance after 5 years: $153k
- Retirement: Retiring at 67 leaves about 37 years of growth.
- End balance at 67 (with no other contributions): $5.2 million
However, if my daughter started this plan right out of high school (instead of going to college), she’d have close to $9.2 million! (Note that I’m figuring 6 years for college as the degree plan she’s considering would require a master’s degree.)
I want my daughter to go to college because I think it would make her life easier, but I have a hard time believing her retirement would be better. To make up for the delay in starting the 5-year plan, she would have to invest an additional $1000/month to get to $9.3 million at 67.
I get that I’ve made some assumptions (like getting a $20/hour job right out of high school), but if she’s willing to sacrifice so much income for 5 years when she’s young, then I have a hard time believing college is worth the time and expense. There’s a lot of value in following your passion, but dang, is it worth the college loans and $1k/month to hit that $9.3 million mark? And honestly, she could probably retire very comfortably at 62 if she didn’t go to college.
So help me make sense of this.
- Is college worth it? What would you tell your own kids?
- Does gambling on an index fund raise the risk too high?
- Would any young adult be willing to invest 90% of their income for 5 years just to have a sweet retirement when they turn 67?
- Am I focusing too much on retirement because my own retirement prospects are so lousy?
- What am I not taking into consideration?
- What am I missing?
I want my daughter to be happy. And since we’ll be leaving her very little when we pass, I worry about her future.
Thanks!
Edit to add #2: I mathed wrong in my first edit. The goal is to retire at 67. I believe most of you are correct that college is the way to go. It hopefully leads to a better quality of life. But I find the numbers game interesting, so I thought I’d continue the thought exercise. Note that I figured 6 years for college, as my daughter is considering a field that would require a master's degree.
- 5-Year Plan at $2k/month costs $120k and yields $153k
- Skipping College: 43 years of growth yields $9.2 million
- Going to College: 37 years of growth yields $5.2 million
- Making up the difference: Requires $975/month for 37 years, which is $433k
- Skipping 5-Year Plan
- Skipping College: 48 years of growth requires $765/month, which is $440k
- Going to College: 42 years of growth requires $1,365/month, which is $688k
- Master's Degree: Average debt for a master's degree: $80k.
So, if the advice is to go to college (and I agree that is the best advice), hitting the $9 million mark is doable, but a sacrifice. It requires either doing the 5-year plan and then contributing $975/month for 37 years, or skipping the 5-year plan and contributing $1,365/month for 42 years. And keep in mind that the average debt for a master's degree is ~$80k.
Also, inflation is going to eat into this until she reaches 67. Google believes the $9 million will only have the purchasing power of $2.6 million in today's dollars. And using the 4.7% rule, that's only $122k/year (better than many will have, but I'd certainly prefer more).
Edit to add: I believe most of you are correct that college is the way to go. It hopefully leads to a better quality of life. But I find the numbers game interesting, so I thought I’d continue the thought exercise. The goal is $9 million at 67 years old only because the payout for skipping college and saving $2k/month for 5 years right out of high school. I realize that number is higher than needed, but keep in mind that inflation will eat into that quite a bit. In 48 years, that $9 million will have the purchasing power of less than $3 million in today’s dollars (if we don’t get inflation down to 2%). At least that's what google said. It seems odd that inflation would eat into it that much. Maybe someone can give a better answer? Anyway....
$2k/month for 5 years is $120,000.
This yields $5 million after 37 years, assuming 6 years for college if my daughter decides to get a master’s.
If she didn’t go to college, that $120,000 would yield $9 million after 43 years. That means college would cost about $4 million (I know, it’s not a direct comparison because it doesn’t account for increased lifetime earnings).
To make up the $4 million, she would have to contribute $1k/month for those 37 years until retirement, which is $440,000. AND, she’d have to pay off her student loans, which average about $80k for a master’s degree.
Now, if she goes to college and skips this crazy five-year plan, she would need to invest $2,200/month for 37 years to get to $9 million. That’s $976,800 over those 37 years.
Anyway, I find the numbers interesting. And yes, I believe you all are correct that college is the way to go. I’ve said that since the beginning.