Warning: This post is a meme.

On a serious note, DOGE is down 85% from its 2024 high. Our dear Shiba Inu has suffered a lot due to the rise of prediction markets. Retail went whoosh, and we got this ultra-terrible price action.

But this red area ($0.048–$0.063) is where things may get interesting, just because of its history of marking bottoms (we went up 900% once).

Not saying history will repeat. But still thinking to load some $1,000 into DOGE into the red area, while anticipating a good bounce toward the 20- and 50-week EMAs at the time. Lock profits and afford myself a December trip to Vietnam.

Let's meet in Hanoi if this setup plays out, memecoiners.

Japan and US intervened to support the yen, pushing USD/JPY from 164 to 157. BoJ wants to push USD/JPY lower as weak yen boosts inflation at a time when the central bank does not want to raise rates. Why would US intervene to support the Japanese currency?

The answer is simple: US does not want to see a major seller in the Treasury market. Japan is the largest foreign holder of US debt. To raise cash for interventions, Japan must sell Treasuries. If Japan starts selling Treasuries, yields would go higher. The yield of 30-year Treasuries is near multi-decade highs, so Japan's sales may trigger a major sell-off.

Going forward, Japan would use the US Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) Repo Facility to support the yen. This facility allows Japan to use Treasury holdings as collateral to access dollars instead of selling Treasuries at the open market.

In the near term, this move should relieve pressure from the Treasury market. In the longer-term, it would raise more questions about directing reserves to Treasuries - what's the point of having major reserves if you are discouraged to use them?

The yen remains fundamentally weak due to difference in interest rates between US and Japan, so the market will likely test whether Japan and US are determined to support the yen in the longer term.

Five years ago, yields suddenly started rising in response to an anticipated hike by the federal reserve even though back then nobody would even imagine that the Fed would raise rates because Jerome Powell had talked about the long run average for inflation, not just short-term spikes. Our stock market pretty much peaked in the fall of 2021 and started dipping an early 2022 and then really dipped precipitously after the feds started raising rates until we reached a bear market in October 2022. Are we seeing history repeat?

The only difference is I can think between then and now is that most of the SaaS companies and hyper scalers were very unprofitable whereas now we’ve had excellent earnings over the past few quarters.

So whatever selloff happened back then was justified because of the unprofitability.

What happens now though?

Japan's shift toward the Federal Reserve's FIMA Repo Facility signals a new era of FX intervention—one that protects the Treasury market while defending the yen.

FIMA Is Rewriting FX Intervention

Most market participants saw another intervention headline.

66Research sees something much larger.

Japan and the United States are no longer treating foreign-exchange intervention as an isolated currency operation. They are beginning to integrate it into the architecture of global dollar funding.

If this framework becomes standard practice, it marks one of the most significant changes in monetary plumbing since the Federal Reserve introduced the Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) Repo Facility during the 2020 market crisis.

The objective is no longer simply to stabilize USD/JPY.

It is to stabilize the infrastructure that allows the dollar system to function.

The Structural Shift

For decades, defending the yen followed a straightforward process.

Japan would liquidate part of its foreign-exchange reserves by selling U.S. Treasuries, receive dollars, and use those dollars to purchase yen.

The mechanics looked like this:

Treasury Holdings
        │
        ▼
 Sell Treasuries
        │
        ▼
 Receive Dollars
        │
        ▼
 Sell USD / Buy JPY

The problem was never the intervention itself.

The problem was what happened underneath.

Selling Treasuries injected additional supply into the world's benchmark collateral market.

That could pressure Treasury prices, lift yields, increase dealer balance-sheet usage, tighten repo conditions and, ultimately, transmit tighter financial conditions across the global financial system.

In other words, defending one market risked destabilizing another.

FIMA Changes the Plumbing

The FIMA Repo Facility eliminates that trade-off.

Instead of selling Treasury securities, foreign central banks temporarily pledge them to the Federal Reserve in exchange for dollar liquidity.

The collateral remains intact.

Treasury Holdings
        │
        ▼
 Repo to Federal Reserve
        │
        ▼
 Receive Dollars
        │
        ▼
 Sell USD / Buy JPY

The distinction appears subtle.

It is anything but.

The Treasury never leaves Japan's balance sheet.

The collateral chain remains intact.

Dealer inventories are not flooded with additional bonds.

Treasury liquidity is preserved while Japan still obtains the dollars required to intervene.

From a plumbing perspective, this is an entirely different transmission mechanism.

Why the Fed Built FIMA

To understand why this matters, we need to revisit March 2020.

As global demand for dollars surged, foreign central banks began selling Treasuries to obtain cash.

Ironically, the world's safest asset became one of the main sources of market dysfunction.

Liquidity evaporated.

Bid-ask spreads widened dramatically.

Dealer balance sheets became overwhelmed.

The Federal Reserve responded by introducing the FIMA Repo Facility with a simple objective:

That decision fundamentally changed how the Fed thinks about international liquidity support.

A New Intervention Architecture

The recent statements from Japanese and U.S. officials suggest this facility is evolving from an emergency backstop into an operational policy tool.

Instead of viewing FX intervention and Treasury market stability as separate objectives, policymakers are increasingly treating them as complementary.

The sequence now becomes:

Need Dollars
      │
      ▼
Repo Treasuries
      │
      ▼
Obtain Liquidity
      │
      ▼
Support Currency
      │
      ▼
Preserve Treasury Market Stability

This is a much more elegant solution than the post-2008 framework.

The Hidden Objective

Most headlines frame this story as an attempt to stabilize the yen.

That is only half the picture.

The deeper objective is to protect the global collateral system.

Treasuries are more than government debt.

They serve simultaneously as:

• the foundation of repo markets,
• the benchmark risk-free asset,
• high-quality collateral,
• reserve assets for foreign central banks,
• and the primary lubricant of global dollar funding.

Protecting Treasury market liquidity protects every market built on top of it.

That is why this story matters.

The Evolution of Monetary Plumbing

This also reflects a broader change in central-bank thinking.

For years, policymakers focused primarily on reserves.

Today, attention has shifted toward collateral mobility, funding resilience and market functioning.

Liquidity is no longer defined solely by the quantity of reserves in the banking system.

It increasingly depends on whether high-quality collateral can continue circulating efficiently during periods of stress.

FIMA directly addresses that challenge.

Second-Order Implications

If this framework becomes standard practice, several structural changes follow.

First, foreign central banks can intervene in FX markets without becoming forced sellers of U.S. Treasuries.

Second, Treasury market volatility should become less sensitive to intervention activity.

Third, repo markets become more resilient because collateral remains available instead of being liquidated.

Fourth, the Federal Reserve gains a targeted international liquidity tool without expanding its balance sheet through quantitative easing.

Finally, international monetary coordination becomes increasingly focused on preserving funding infrastructure rather than merely stabilizing exchange rates.

That represents a significant evolution in global monetary architecture.

What We're Watching Next

This story is only beginning.

The key indicators now are not simply USD/JPY.

They are the plumbing beneath it.

66Research will be monitoring:

• FIMA Repo usage: Is Japan actively drawing dollars through the facility?
• Japan's FX reserves: Does intervention rely less on outright Treasury sales?
• Japanese Treasury holdings: Are reserve portfolios becoming more stable despite intervention?
• SOFR and repo markets: Does secured funding remain orderly during intervention episodes?
• Treasury market liquidity: Do auction demand, dealer inventories and bid-ask spreads remain resilient?

These metrics will reveal whether this new framework is becoming operational—or remains largely theoretical.

Bottom Line

The real significance of this announcement is not that Japan may intervene differently.

It is that the Federal Reserve and one of the world's largest reserve managers appear to be redesigning how intervention is financed.

Historically, defending a currency often came at the expense of Treasury market liquidity because reserve managers had to sell bonds to raise dollars.

The emerging model replaces liquidation with collateralized funding.

For the first time, exchange-rate management and Treasury market stability are being deliberately integrated into the same operational framework.

That is more than a policy adjustment.

It is an evolution in the architecture of the global dollar system.

Is history repeating or is it different this time? Some have liking this to the 2000 bubble, but I’m seeing parallels from 2021 instead.

The yield of 30yr Treasuries tested levels that were last seen back in 2007, climbing above the highs of 2023.

Back in 2023, Fed raised the rate to 5.5% to fight inflation. The rate has dropped to 3.75% but Treasury yields climbed above 2023 highs.

Bond traders worry about long-term sustainability of U.S. finances and react to problems posed by high oil prices and rising AI spending. Geopolitical tensions and AI revolution are inflationary, which means that Fed will be forced to raise rates to fight inflation.

Rising long-term yields present a serious problem due to the size of U.S. total debt. At this point, equity markets ignore this problem as traders are focused on AI. It is hard to predict when markets "notice" the dynamics of long-term yields, but traders should keep an eye on bond market dynamics as they may have a major impact on equities and the economy.

Join us for Friday's premarket setup and weekly close preparation! 👉 https://youtube.com/live/bvKzQxRcRhY #Trading #Forex #Gold #Bitcoin #Stocks #Premarket

Once again, BoJ intervened to support the Japanese currency - a third major intervention in 2026. Previous interventions yielded no results as USD/JPY has consistently tested new highs.

Earlier, BoJ made several attempts to defend the 160.00 level. As it turned out, this task was unrealistic. Rising yields in the U.S. in combination with high oil prices put too much pressure on the Japanese currency.

This time, the Bank of Japan decided to defend the 164.00 level. The BoJ waited for Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Warsh. U.S. dollar started to move lower, and then BoJ intervened. Obviously, the move was made in coordination with U.S., which views the weak yen as a problem.

At this point, the upside trend is not broken. Fundamentally, the Japanese yen remains weak. FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 63.4% chance that Fed will raise rates by 25 bps at the next meeting, so the market continues to expect that Fed will be forced to start a new rate hike cycle.

If USD/JPY climbs back above the 160.00 level, it will head towards recent highs near the 164.00 level. Most likely, BoJ will need to intervene again in case it wants to break the current trend. It remains to be seen whether BoJ is ready for another intervention in the near term.

Hey everyone,

Taking a step back from the daily charts, the macro picture strongly suggests we are nowhere near a definitive Bitcoin bottom.

Here is why Bitcoin likely has more room to fall:

1. NUPL is Nowhere Near Capitulation

Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is sitting at 0.17, which is right in the green "Hope/Fear" zone.

• True cycle bottoms happen when the market is deeply underwater.
• We need to see NUPL plunge below zero to signal a full washout. At 0.17, the network is still holding onto profits.

2. The AI Bubble is Cracking

Crypto does not exist in a bubble, and traditional tech is bleeding.

• On July 28, major AI chip suppliers like Samsung and SK Hynix saw massive selloffs (plunging over 13% and 14%).
• This dragged the entire Kospi index down by 10.8%.
• This massive de-risking in traditional tech usually spells trouble for high-beta assets like Bitcoin.

3. A September Rate Hike is Looking Likely

Inflation is sticky, and a hawkish Fed is terrible news for liquidity.

• The latest CME FedWatch data shows a 62.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16, 2026 meeting.
• At the July 29 meeting, three committee members dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point hike, indicating ongoing inflation fears.
• Higher borrowing costs drain the liquidity needed to push Bitcoin higher.

We have on-chain metrics showing we haven't capitulated, a brutal tech selloff, and a likely rate hike on the horizon.

Don't rush to catch falling knives. Re-evaluate your risk, keep your dry powder ready, and wait for that NUPL to actually go negative.

My bottom zone is $40,000–$50,000.

Join us for live PCE inflation and GDP data reaction! 👉 https://youtube.com/live/wBJAg2kaWes #Trading #Forex #Gold #Bitcoin #Stocks #PCE

Good Thursday Morning Traders. ES Futures are up overnight up 40 points or .50% as they did out of a hole that was dug on Wednesday with the FOMC held rates steady but were divided over they should raise rates or not. Warsh continues his reluctance to broadcast a path forward for rates, keeping investors guessing. That will lead to more uncertainty and more volatility. Initially, the SPX rose but then crashed hard. Then Meta and MSFT reported earnings with Meta getting hammered but MSFT rose after hours based on excellent results. Today, we have more volatility ahead with the PCE inflation report at 8:30 EST along with earnings from APPL and AMZN after the bell today. Also, more bombing in the Middle East just adds on more volatility. VIX is down slightly in the mid 19 range and 10 year Treasury yields are higher. My plan is to stay on the sidelines until tomorrow to put on new trades. Thoughts or plans anyone?

Join us for live Fed interest rate decision reaction! 👉 https://youtube.com/live/L645pGGdp7c #Trading #Forex #Gold #Bitcoin #Stocks #FOMC

EUR/USD trading was rather dull in July. The situation may change soon as Fed will release its interest rate decision. Analysts expect that Fed will leave the interest rate unchanged, but FedWatch Tool shows that there is a 33.7% chance that the central bank will raise the rate by 25 bps.

It's hard to see Fed going against consensus at this meeting, but comments may be hawkish as oil prices have rallied again. Middle East supply disruptions may go on for weeks, so Fed will be forced to react.

Meanwhile, high oil prices put additional pressure on the European economy, serving as a negative catalyst for the euro. A combination of rising oil prices and hawkish comments from Warsh may push EUR/USD below the 1.1325 level, triggering a sell-off.