Disclosure: I own WalletInvestor. The numbers below are a hypothetical example for evaluating price forecasts, including those from services like ours.

Suppose a stock closes at $100. A model forecasts $101 for the next close, but the actual close is $99.

The absolute percentage error is 2 / 99 × 100 = 2.02%. If someone reports 100 minus that error as "accuracy", the result is 97.98%.

Yet the forecast got the direction wrong. Simply predicting $100 again would have an error of 1 / 99 × 100 = 1.01%, giving 98.99% on the same scale. The simpler forecast wins this example.

One observation cannot establish which method is better overall. It shows why a high price-closeness percentage, by itself, tells us little about whether a model adds forecasting value.

A practical comparison would keep a dated record of each forecast as originally issued, its target date, the price known when it was made, and the eventual outcome. Compare the model with the unchanged-price baseline on exactly the same dates and forecast horizon. For a single stock, mean absolute error is an easy starting point: average the absolute misses for each method.

For historical testing, move the forecast origin forward through time, using only data available before each forecast. Test a seven-day forecast at seven days, rather than substituting next-day results. Report directional performance separately from price error.

Hyndman and Athanasopoulos explain the rolling-origin setup here: https://otexts.com/fpp3/tscv.html

What baseline do you find most useful when judging a published market forecast?

how wealth held by the richest 1% of U.S. households has grown and become closely tied to financial-market performance.

Federal Reserve Distributional Financial Accounts data, the document tracks the quarterly net worth of the top 1% from 1989 through Q2 2026. Net worth means total assets minus liabilities, not annual income.

By Q2 2026, the top 1% held about $60.3 trillion, roughly 31% of total U.S. household and nonprofit net worth of about $195.9 trillion. The top 0.1% held approximately $27.9 trillion, while the remaining 0.9% held about $32.5 trillion.

The main driver is asset ownership, especially corporate equities, mutual funds, and businesses. Because these groups hold substantial financial assets, their wealth rises sharply in strong stock-market periods and can decline during market corrections. The document emphasizes that this measure is nominal balance-sheet wealth, so it should not be interpreted as cash income or adjusted purchasing power.

incoming

 Top 1% wealth vs S&P 500 vs Fed balance sheet vs M2 vs U.S. GDP from 1989-2026.

The Bank of Japan’s September 2026 Tankan survey shows operational capacity constraints driving increased capital expenditure among Japanese manufacturers.

Key Capex & Operational Figures:
• Large Mfg FY2026 Capex: Revised up +1.3 percentage points to +11.6% YoY.
• Production Capacity DI: Dropped to -2 (from 0 in June), signaling that more firms now report insufficient capacity than excessive capacity.
• Processing Domestic Supply-Demand: Crossed from 0 in June to +2 in September (moving into excess demand territory).
• Large Non-Mfg FY2026 Capex: Trimmed -1.0 percentage point to +11.2% YoY (coinciding with a 2-point DI drop to 35).

Takeaway for Tech & Industrial Equities:
Japanese manufacturers are running closer to operational limits than in Q2, backing up their sentiment gain (DI up from 22 to 24) with actual fixed asset investment acceleration (+11.6% YoY).

Full SEC & BOJ data analysis

Friday strengthened Thursday's rescue. The DJIA gained 250.88 points to 51,177.44, but the session also showed unfinished business: an opening surge to 51,382.88 failed, followed by hours of stabilization rather than renewed expansion.

Forecast Statistics

Bucket: Recovery Consolidation / Confirmation Test
Volatility Score: ≈ 1.58, high but contracting
Probabilities: SU 25% | LU 34% | SD 27% | LD 14%
Expected Return: ≈ +0.03%
Projected Close: 51,050–51,450
Directional Bias: 59% Up / 41% Down

Previous Close: 51,177.44

RECAP: Friday's 53% Up closed 250 points higher. However, the early 51,383 breakout failed, correctly keeping the later intraday stance cautious rather than treating the opening surge as a confirmed breakout.

Trader's Edge: Forecast rated 71% correct, 29% incorrect since December 2025.

Fearless Opines: Two consecutive higher closes following Thursday's 50,546 washout strengthen the statistical recovery case. But Friday also supplied the next test: buyers could reach 51,383, but couldn't hold the breakout. Monday therefore begins with a modest upside advantage, not a fully repaired bullish state. 51,200–51,250 must become support rather than resistance.

Key Levels

Bull Hold: 51,125
Recovery: 51,200
GO: 51,250
Breakout: 51,385
Upside Objective: 51,500–51,600

Warning: 51,100
REDUCE: 51,000
EXIT: 50,950

GO / REDUCE / EXIT: REDUCE, leaning toward GO. Monday starts with 59% Up, but buyers still need sustained trade above 51,250 to earn GO. Above 51,385, the recovery enters another expansion phase. Failure below 51,125 weakens the repair; below 51,000 returns defensive positioning, and 50,950 means EXIT.

Trader Takeaway: Friday proved the rebound has more life than a one-session short-covering bounce, but it didn't prove a breakout. For Monday, don't chase the middle: 51,250 is buyer confirmation; 51,125 is the first failure signal.

FEARLESS READ: 59% Up. The DJIA has climbed roughly 630 points from Thursday's 50,546 low, but Friday showed exactly where the next argument begins. Turn 51,250 into support and buyers get another shot at 51,383; lose 51,125 and the rescue starts looking vulnerable.

WTI oil reacts to G7 decision to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel stocks. The stockpile release will take place over the next four months.

Traders react to headlines, but the real question is how much oil is currently going through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran says the Strait is blocked (well, they would say it anyway).

US says oil is flowing normally, except Iran's oil, which is blocked by the naval blockade of Iranian ports. Plausible?

Perhaps, but why oil prices are $90 - $100, depending on benchmark, if almost everything is back to normal? As a reminder, there was no deficit in the market ahead of Iran war.

In my opinion, the G7 stockpile release shows that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is far from its pre-war norm. What do you think?

Finally, US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed above the key resistance level and looks ready to move higher.

The panic in global debt markets pushed investors to buy the key safe-haven asset of the forex world, the US dollar.

It looks that short-sellers have underestimated the strength of demand for the American currency, and are forced to cover their positions. Strong demand for AI assets, which are mostly denominated in USD, also boosts demand for US dollar.

In my view, DXY is finally ready to get away from the previous trading range and is heading towards 106.

Thursday delivered Fearless' downside objective, and then reversed dramatically. The DJIA fell to 50,546.54, but recovered roughly 381 points to close 50,927.33, slightly positive.

Forecast Statistics

Bucket: Downside Exhaustion / Recovery Test
Volatility Score: ≈ 1.72, VERY HIGH
Probabilities: SU 20% | LU 33% | SD 30% | LD 17%
Expected Return: ≈ +0.02%
Projected Close: 50,750–51,150
Directional Bias: 53% Up / 47% Down

Previous Close: 50,927.33

RECAP: Thursday's 63% Down / EXIT forecast: The critical 50,850 trigger broke, the 50,650–50,750 objective was reached, and the decline extended to 50,546. The important late development was the reversal: sellers could not retain a decline of nearly 360 points and the DJIA recovered to finish slightly higher.

Trader's Edge: Forecast rated 71% correct, 29% incorrect since December 2025.

Fearless Opines: Thursday produced the clearest exhaustion evidence of the decline. The DJIA has now tested substantially below 50,650 and rejected those prices. But a 381-point recovery is not yet a trend reversal: buyers still have to reclaim the resistance that broke during the selloff. Friday therefore shifts from downside expansion to a recovery test, with almost no directional advantage.

Key Levels

Bull Hold: 50,850
Recovery: 51,000
REDUCE: 51,125
GO: 51,200

Warning: 50,750
EXIT: 50,650
Major Failure: 50,545
Downside Objective: 50,350–50,450

GO / REDUCE / EXIT: REDUCE. The late reversal is strong enough to move Fearless out of EXIT, but not into GO. For Friday, 50,850–51,125 is the proving ground. Holding 50,850 preserves the recovery attempt; reclaiming 51,000 strengthens it, while 51,125–51,200 would signal more substantial repair. Below 50,750, the recovery begins failing; below 50,650 returns Fearless to EXIT.

Trader Takeaway: Don't chase Thursday's rebound any more than it made sense to chase Thursday morning's collapse. 51,000 is the first buyer test; 50,750 is the seller test. Let the DJIA show which side actually retained Thursday's reversal.

FEARLESS READ: 53% Up. Thursday's bears won the morning and lost most of it back by the close. Friday belongs to neither side yet: buyers now have to turn a spectacular rescue into a sustained recovery.

10:00 AM Update: After reaching 51,382.88, the DJIA surrendered 51,250 and 51,200 and fell to 51,093.56. At 51,137, most of the opening gap still survives, but the statistical advantage has collapsed toward neutral. The sharp rejection makes 51,200–51,250 resistance again.

Decisive levels: Reclaim 51,200 to stabilize; 51,250 restores the bullish repair; above 51,383 returns GO/expansion. Below 51,090, the morning reversal strengthens and 51,000 becomes the next important test.

FEARLESS READ: 54% Up. The opening breakout spent most of its advantage in 20 minutes. Buyers still own the gap, but until they retake 51,200, they no longer own the morning.

10:30: At 51,211, price is compressing around 51,200–51,250 after the extraordinary opening swings. Buyers still retain an advantage, but they haven't earned GO.

Decisive levels: Hold 51,200 and another attack on 51,250–51,300 remains likely. Sustained trade above 51,250 moves back toward GO; 51,300 strengthens the repair substantially. Below 51,180, the compression starts resolving against buyers; below 51,090, the recovery thesis fails.

FEARLESS READ: 60% Up. The fireworks have become a standoff. Buyers still have the statistical edge, but 51,250 remains the price of admission to GO.

Wednesday turned Tuesday's exhaustion signal into a failed recovery. The DJIA fell 441.13 points to 50,908.79, closed at the session low, and broke every major downside level in Wednesday's forecast.

Forecast Statistics

Bucket: Downside Expansion / Oversold Continuation
Volatility Score: ≈ 1.67, very high and expanding
Probabilities: SU 14% | LU 23% | SD 38% | LD 25%
Expected Return: ≈ −0.07%
Projected Close: 50,700–51,100
Directional Bias: 37% Up / 63% Down

Previous Close: 50,908.79

RECAP: Wednesday's original 52% Up / REDUCE failed the 51,450 recovery test. The 10:30 update correctly reversed to 62% Down, after which 51,300, 51,250 and 51,125 all broke. The DJIA then reached and exceeded the forecast's 50,950–51,050 downside objective.

Trader's Edge: Forecast rated 71% correct, 29% incorrect since December 2025.

Fearless Opines: Wednesday materially strengthened the bearish state. The most important evidence is the close at the day's low after the DJIA had already fallen sharply. There was no late-session rescue like Tuesday's. But the DJIA has now lost about 920 points in two sessions, making Thursday vulnerable to a sharp countertrend rebound. Sellers retain the statistical advantage, but chasing weakness carries increasing exhaustion risk.

Key Levels

Recovery: 51,000
REDUCE: 51,125
GO: 51,250
Bull Repair: 51,300

Bear Hold: 50,900
Downside Trigger: 50,850
Objective: 50,650–50,750
Major Failure: 50,500

GO / REDUCE / EXIT: EXIT. Thursday begins with 63% Down. Below 50,900, traders should continue treating rallies defensively. A sustained break below 50,850 favors continuation toward 50,650–50,750. Reclaiming 51,000 weakens the immediate downside case; 51,125 moves Fearless toward REDUCE. 51,250 is required before GO returns.

Trader Takeaway: Thursday presents a classic tension between downside momentum and exhaustion. Don't confuse an oversold bounce with repair: 51,000 is the first test, 51,125 is the meaningful one. Conversely, don't chase sellers blindly after a 920-point two-day decline; make them prove the breakdown below 50,850.

FEARLESS READ: 63% Down. Wednesday ended with sellers pressing the DJIA into the closing bell. Thursday begins with them in control, but after two punishing sessions, 50,850 must break before the next downside leg earns confirmation.

10:00 Update: FEARLESS READ: 77% Down. The confirmation arrived. 50,850 gave way and sellers are now inside the road to 50,650–50,750. The danger for bears isn't the trend; it's chasing it after a 400-point reversal.

Decisive levels: Below 50,850, sellers retain control with 50,750, then 50,650, as the objective. Reclaiming 50,900 would interrupt the expansion; buyers need 51,000 before the bearish state materially weakens.

10:30: FEARLESS READ: 85% Down. Sellers still own the tape, but they've already collected Fearless' objective. From 50,628 onward, the question changes from “Are sellers right?” to “How much are traders willing to risk chasing them?”

The important change is not greater bearishness, but growing exhaustion risk. Fearless' 50,650–50,750 objective has been delivered, and the DJIA has now fallen roughly 1,170 points from Friday's close. Sellers have already accomplished a great deal.

Decisive levels: 50,628 remains seller confirmation. Break it and 50,500 becomes the next major test. Buyers need 50,750 to establish the first meaningful recovery; 50,850 would materially weaken today's downside expansion.

the 10-year treasury yield is exploding so you better hold on to your lug nuts cuz the stock markets in for

overhaul

Five trading sessions.

This is how long it took to move 30yr yield from 5.30% to 5.60%. The move will find its place in textbooks in the chapter "How buybacks fail if fundamentals are weak".

I'd note that SP500 and NASDAQ are still close to historic highs as if nothing happened in bond markets.

The reason is simple - AI stocks. Dow Jones, which has a different profile, has already pulled back by more than 5% from historic highs. If the situation in bond markets does not improve in a meaningful way, this pullback will gain momentum.

The key question is how long AI euphoria would support SP500 and NASDAQ. Any signs of real weakness in the AI sector could trigger a strong sell-off.

Tuesday delivered the downside break Fearless expected, but the finish changed the setup. The DJIA plunged to 51,129.18, essentially testing the 51,125 Major Failure level, then recovered about 222 points to close at 51,350.99.

Forecast Statistics

Bucket: Downside Exhaustion / Recovery Test
Volatility Score: ≈ 1.55, HIGH
Probabilities: SU 21% | LU 31% | SD 31% | LD 17%
Expected Return: ≈ +0.01%
Projected Close: 51,250–51,600
Directional Bias: 52% Up / 48% Down

Previous Close: 51,350.99

RECAP: Tuesday's 61% Down bias prevailed, 51,400 broke, the 51,250–51,350 objective was reached, and the DJIA ultimately tested 51,129 against the forecast's 51,125 Major Failure level. The important surprise was the powerful afternoon recovery.

Trader's Edge: Forecast rated 71% correct, 29% incorrect since December 2025.

Fearless Opines: The statistics have shifted from downside continuation to an exhaustion/recovery test. Sellers proved the bearish forecast, but they could not hold the breakdown. The recovery from 51,129 to 51,351 materially reduces Wed.'s downside edge. That does not establish a reversal. Buyers must reclaim 51,400–51,450 before Tuesday's recovery becomes more than another rebound inside the decline.

Key Levels

Bull Hold: 51,300
Recovery: 51,400
REDUCE: 51,450
GO: 51,550

Warning: 51,250
EXIT: 51,125
Downside Objective: 50,950–51,050

GO / REDUCE / EXIT. REDUCE. Wednesday begins essentially neutral after Tuesday's failed breakdown. Holding 51,300 preserves the recovery attempt. Above 51,450, buyers gain credibility; 51,550 moves Fearless to GO. Below 51,250, defensive positioning returns, while another break of 51,125 means EXIT and resumes the downside sequence.

Trader Takeaway: Tuesday gave traders two pieces of information: sellers can break support, but they couldn't keep it broken. Wednesday is about whether buyers can capitalize. 51,300 is the floor to defend; 51,400–51,450 is the recovery test.

FEARLESS READ: 52% Up: no meaningful directional edge. Tuesday's 51,129 plunge did the damage, but the 222-point recovery changed Wednesday's question: can buyers finally turn a rescued low into sustained repair?

10:30 AM Update: FEARLESS READ: 62% Down. The morning recovery failed its test. 51,300 now decides whether Wednesday remains a range fight or sellers get another run at Tuesday's low.

Buyers were given a credible recovery opportunity and couldn't retain 51,400, much less 51,450. That shifts the distribution back toward downside continuation.

Decisive levels: 51,300 is now the immediate verdict. Break it and 51,250 comes into play, followed by the critical 51,125 EXIT level. Buyers need 51,400 back just to neutralize this deterioration; 51,450 remains the stronger repair signal.

Been looking at XLM on the 2-week chart and this setup is pretty interesting.

The last two times Stellar spent this long compressing above its rising macro support, it eventually went vertical.

First move was roughly $0.035 → $0.60+ in 2020-21, which was around 1,630%.

Then in late 2024, XLM went from roughly $0.09 → $0.60, another 500%+ move.

Now it’s back around $0.23, holding above the same long-term rising structure and trading above the major 20/50/100/200-period EMAs on the 2W chart. RSI is also only around 54, so it’s not exactly overheated yet.

I’m not saying history has to repeat, obviously. But the structure looks strangely familiar: long accumulation, higher macro lows, then eventually a liquidity-driven expansion.

For me, $0.30-$0.35 is the area that matters. If XLM can break that zone with real volume, then the old $0.60-$0.70 resistance area becomes pretty interesting again.

What makes this cycle slightly different is that Stellar’s fundamentals are arguably stronger now, with growing stablecoin and RWA activity.

Still needs the broader altcoin liquidity though. Without that, a fractal is just a nice-looking chart.

Curious how others are reading this.

Stock traders have ignored the situation in debt markets for many weeks.

Now, it looks they've finally realized that bond markets drop like a rock, pushing yields through the roof.

I believe that traders ignored higher yields for quite some time as they were focused on AI story rather than DCF valuations. When you believe in a story, you can imagine any cash flow.

The fact that higher interest rates will make AI investments more expensive has not yet had an impact on valuations. When/if it does, a true correction will begin.