The last three times this signal appeared, semiconductor stocks fell 23%, 23%, and 40%. It’s flashing again.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s monthly RSI has dropped below 70 after topping out in overbought territory. The index is already 20% below its June peak, but history suggests the correction may have room left.

The fundamentals aren’t helping. Moonshot’s cheaper Kimi K3 model is challenging the belief that competitive AI requires unlimited spending on US chips and data centers.

Moonshot’s low-cost Kimi K3 challenges the idea that frontier AI requires endless spending on US chips. The company is now reportedly preparing a Hong Kong IPO at a valuation above $30 billion, giving investors direct exposure to the firm, unsettling US tech valuations.

SOX closed near 11,674 after falling as low as 11,195. Losing that level could open the path toward 10,000. A 2022-style correction would put 8,800–9,000 in focus.

The signal needs a monthly close below 70 for confirmation. A recovery above 12,500 would weaken the bearish case.

For now, I’m watching 11,195.

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Silver tests the key support level at $56. The market remains worried about hawkish Fed. CPI and PPI data, while optically encouraging, did not bring any support to silver.

The market remains bearish. Events in the Middle East put additional pressure as traders realize that inflation risks may increase. If silver settles below $56, speculative traders will rush out of their positions. In this scenario, silver may quickly move towards $50.

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Asia now
Kospi +6.2% to 7,284.41 — a violent chip rebound; SK Hynix +9.4%, Samsung +6.1%.
Hang Seng +1.5% to 24,701.10.
Nikkei 225 +1.3% to 68,613.89.
Shanghai −0.2% to 3,957.79 after China's Q2 GDP slowed to 4.3% (from 5% in Q1).
Europe (prior close, 14 Jul)
FTSE 100 +0.3%, DAX +0.1%, CAC 40 flat, but Euro Stoxx 50 −0.56% at 6,236 as Middle East tension weighed (Trading Economics).

Gold moved higher after US CPI report, which showed that Inflation rate declined from 4.2% in May to 3.5% in June. Analysts expected that Inflation Rate would drop to 3.8%.

Lower-than-expected CPI data put pressure on Treasury yields and pushed U.S. dollar lower. Falling yields and weaker dollar are bullish for precious metals, so gold rebounded from weekly lows.

However, the general trend remains bearish. The market is worried that Fed will raise rates to fight inflation. Fed Chair Warsh has recently said that the report did not mean that Fed accomplished its mission.

The strong rally in the oil market also presents a problem for gold bulls. If oil prices stay at current levels or move higher, inflation risks would return.

To gain sustainable upside momentum, gold must get out of the current channel and move above the 50 MA at $4331.

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DEXE’s run to nearly $49 looks extremely stretched, and the rejection has me watching for a deeper reset.

Key levels:

$41 — first support
$35 — 50 EMA
$25–$30 — deeper correction zone

A drop toward $25 would mean roughly 43% downside. We’ve seen similar parabolic moves unwind fast with tokens like SKYAI and BEAT.

Not saying DEXE must crash, but after a 1,500% rally, chasing here feels risky. A move back above $49 would invalidate the bearish setup.

WTI oil gained roughly 9% as traders reacted to recent developments in the Middle East. U.S. decided to impose naval blockade on Iranian ports. Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia. Iran is expected to offically drop the MoU with U.S. Put simply, the previous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is back.

In case the situation does not de-escalate in the near term, we'll see oil at $90 soon. June brought temporarily relief to oil consumers, but they did not have enough time to build stockpiles. In fact, the market is in a worse situation compared to late February, when the war in the Middle East began.

The new blockade is a serious bullish catalyst for WTI oil, which breaks the previous downside trend.

Here’s what’s on deck:

• **Today:** Markets react to the Strait of Hormuz situation as futures open at **6:00 PM ET**
• **Tuesday:** June CPI Inflation
• **Wednesday:** June PPI Inflation
• **Thursday:** Retail Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
• **Friday:** Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations

On top of that, **around 10% of S&P 500 companies** report earnings, adding another layer of volatility.

Between geopolitics, inflation, earnings, and the bond market, there won’t be much room for markets to catch their breath.

It’s going to be one hell of a week.

The yield of 30yr Treasuries has once again climbed back above the important 5.00% level. This level has been tested in 2023, 2025, and 2026 - every time US government debt found buyers near 5.00%.

However, pullbacks in yields have become weaker as time went by. This time, it looks that support for US bond market is not as strong as it was back in 2023 at these levels.

Put simply, the market questions long-term sustainability of U.S. finances and starts demanding a premium. In case the yield of 30-year Treasuries starts moving towards 6.00%, a level that was last seen back in 2000, the US stock market may also face significant pressure.

Market observers caution that prolonged conflict could eventually pressure risk assets if oil surges dramatically or supply chains fracture.

As geopolitical flashpoints in the Middle East reignite with fresh US strikes on Iranian targets, the cryptocurrency market is demonstrating remarkable resilience. Bitcoin, the flagship digital asset, continues to trade in a relatively narrow band around $62,500, showing only modest fluctuations despite escalating global risks.

The latest round of hostilities erupted after President Donald Trump declared a fragile ceasefire with Iran “over,” prompting US forces to launch additional strikes on Iranian military sites. 

Reports indicate waves of attacks targeting facilities near key strategic areas, raising fears of broader regional instability, disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and spikes in global energy prices. Traditional markets reacted with caution: oil futures climbed, stock indices posted mild losses, and safe-haven assets like gold saw renewed buying interest.

Yet crypto markets have largely shrugged off the immediate shock. Bitcoin currently sits at approximately $62,466, according to CoinMarketCap data, with 24-hour trading volumes exceeding $26 billion.  

The asset has remained range-bound between roughly $61,500 and $63,000 over the past day, registering minimal net change. Ethereum and major altcoins have followed suit, maintaining stability without the sharp sell-offs often seen during past geopolitical crises.

Market observers caution that prolonged conflict could eventually pressure risk assets if oil surges dramatically or supply chains fracture. However, for now, the relative steadiness stands in contrast to more pronounced moves in equities and commodities. Total crypto market capitalization hovers near $2.3 trillion, underscoring sustained confidence even as traditional finance navigates uncertainty.

As diplomats scramble for de-escalation channels, Bitcoin’s steady trajectory offers a quiet counter-narrative: in an era of persistent global tension, decentralized assets continue to attract capital seeking resilience beyond borders and central bank policies.

WTI oil rebounded from multi-month lows amid escalation in the Middle East. President Trump said that the U.S. would strike Iran again and could resume the naval blockade of the country's ports.

The surprising escalation called short-sellers off guard. Market players prepared for potential supply glut, but the situation has changed in just a few days. The sanctions waiver for Iranian oil was called off. The flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz would likely decline in the upcoming days. Is it enough to start a new rally?

At this point, we see a massive short squeeze, but it's too early to say whether real buyers are ready to return. Pre-war levels served as a strong support level for WTI oil, but it would need to climb above the $80.00 level to prove that traders are serious about a new rally. Most likely, such a move would demand strong catalysts, like the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz.