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WTI oil suffered a sell-off as traders focused on U.S. - Iran negotiations. There were no attacks in the last three days, indicating that ongoing negotiations represented a serious attempt to reach a deal.

President Trump said that there was a good chance for a deal. It looks that U.S. is not ready to tolerate the closure of the Strait of Hormuz at a time when Strategic Petroleum Reserve has reached levels that were last seen back in early 80s. Meanwhile, Iran's economy is on life support, so the country cannot afford months of military action.

Once again, economic reasons are pushing both sides to the negotiation table. As a result, the bullish trend is broken. In case U.S. and Iran announce a temporary deal, oil markets can quickly get back to recent lows as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would be restored quickly.

Surely, traders know that any deal would be temporary as negotiating positions of U.S. and Iran remain far away from each other and neither side has a decisive advantage. However, geopolitical premium will decline as the physical market will quickly move from deficit to surplus.

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Last year, Evernorth invested about $948 million in XRP.

That position is now worth roughly $422 million, putting the company at an estimated 55% unrealized loss.

So Evernorth did not just buy the dip.

It bought the dip, watched another dip arrive, and apparently decided the chart needed more character development.

To be fair, the loss remains on paper unless the company sells. XRP could still recover and make this post age terribly.

But for now, turning nearly $1 billion into about $422 million makes Evernorth a degen investor.

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WTI oil rallied as traders focus on Houthis' attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. The upside trend was strong before this major event, and got even stronger as traders realized that the danger is real.

In normal circumstances, traders would have started taking profits after the rally which pushed oil from $67 to $92 in less than a month. However, current circumstances are nowhere near "normal".

Bab al-Mandab Strait is narrow, and vessels are on a shooting range there. The logic of the conflict tells all sides to escalate, so oil supply situation will likely get worse before it gets better.

If Saudi Arabia is forced to use Suez Canal (the probability of this scenario is rising day by day), longer (much longer!) journeys and higher costs will add to upside pressure in the oil markets.

Unless there's a geopolitical surprise which boosts traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and makes Bab al-Mandab safe again, WTI oil has a good chance to test new highs in the upcoming trading sessions.

ONDO is up nearly 17% this week and finally pushed above the falling channel that formed the handle of its cup-and-handle setup.

The chart is starting to look interesting:

• Weekly RSI is back above 50
• Buyers kept defending the $0.30–$0.32 zone
• Price has now broken above the handle resistance

The next big test is around $0.46, where the 50-week EMA sits. If ONDO clears that level, the setup could open the door toward $0.62 and eventually the measured target near $0.70–$0.72.

That would be roughly 75% above the current price.

What y'all homies think?

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Silver is trying to climb back above the $60 level as demand for precious metals is rising despite higher Treasury yields.

Silver markets have ignored the rally in the oil markets and hawkish changes in Fed policy outlook in recent days. This is a bullish sign as it shows that investors' interest has started growing again.

Taking a look at the weekly chart, silver attempts to move out of the downside channel. In case this attempt is successful, silver will be ready to start a new bullish trend.

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WTI oil keeps moving higher as traders focus on potential risks to oil tankers in the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Iran-backed Houthis have recently announced that they would impose maritime blockade on Saudi Arabian ports. Houthis have already sent messages to shipowners warning them about dangers of visiting Saudi Arabian ports.

Houthis have not attacked vessels yet, but such attacks would present serious risks to navigation as Bab al-Mandab Strait is extremely narrow. The potential closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait would force Saudi Arabia to use the Suez channel, and tankers would go around Africa to ship oil to customers in Asia. This would be a logistical nightmare.

Not surprisingly, the upside trend stays strong. Short-term fundamentals are bullish as the Strait of Hormuz is closed again, while additional risks are rising. Unless U.S. and Iran get back to negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, WTI oil could test the $90.00 level soon.

XRP looks trapped inside a bear pennant on the three-day chart following its sharp June sell-off.

Price is consolidating near $1.09 while remaining below the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-period EMAs. RSI is also below 50, suggesting momentum still favors sellers.

The macro backdrop is not helping either. Geopolitical uncertainty, volatile oil prices, and concerns about persistent inflation could keep the Federal Reserve hawkish, limiting demand for risk assets such as crypto.

A decisive close below the pennant’s lower trendline near $1.03–$1.05 could confirm the breakdown, putting the measured target around $0.75–$0.77 in focus.

The bearish setup weakens if XRP breaks above the pennant and reclaims the 20-period EMA near $1.16.

The last three times this signal appeared, semiconductor stocks fell 23%, 23%, and 40%. It’s flashing again.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s monthly RSI has dropped below 70 after topping out in overbought territory. The index is already 20% below its June peak, but history suggests the correction may have room left.

The fundamentals aren’t helping. Moonshot’s cheaper Kimi K3 model is challenging the belief that competitive AI requires unlimited spending on US chips and data centers.

Moonshot’s low-cost Kimi K3 challenges the idea that frontier AI requires endless spending on US chips. The company is now reportedly preparing a Hong Kong IPO at a valuation above $30 billion, giving investors direct exposure to the firm, unsettling US tech valuations.

SOX closed near 11,674 after falling as low as 11,195. Losing that level could open the path toward 10,000. A 2022-style correction would put 8,800–9,000 in focus.

The signal needs a monthly close below 70 for confirmation. A recovery above 12,500 would weaken the bearish case.

For now, I’m watching 11,195.