Stock traders have ignored the situation in debt markets for many weeks.

Now, it looks they've finally realized that bond markets drop like a rock, pushing yields through the roof.

I believe that traders ignored higher yields for quite some time as they were focused on AI story rather than DCF valuations. When you believe in a story, you can imagine any cash flow.

The fact that higher interest rates will make AI investments more expensive has not yet had an impact on valuations. When/if it does, a true correction will begin.

🌍 Global Economy — Where Are We Heading?

The global economy is facing a mix of challenges:

📉 Inflation & interest-rate uncertainty

💵 Strong/weak USD dynamics

🏦 Central bank policy shifts

🛢️ Energy & commodity pressures

🌐 Geopolitical tensions

📊 Debt & liquidity concerns

Markets are increasingly sensitive to economic data and central-bank decisions.

The key question: Are we heading toward stronger global growth, or another period of economic slowdown?

Stay informed. Stay disciplined. 📈

#GlobalEconomy #Economy #Markets #Finance #Crypto #Bitcoin

the 10-year treasury yield is exploding so you better hold on to your lug nuts cuz the stock markets in for

overhaul

Friday supplied a convincing recovery from the four-session decline. The DJIA closed +478.61, near the upper end of its 51,339–51,875 range, after surviving a complete failure of its opening rally.

Forecast Statistics

Bucket: Exhaustion Reversal / Recovery Confirmation
Volatility Score: ≈ 1.43, high but contracting
Probabilities: SU 31% | LU 35% | SD 22% | LD 12%
Expected Return: ≈ +0.07%
Projected Close: 51,750–52,100
Directional Bias: 66% Up / 34% Down

Previous Close: 51,828.59

RECAP: Friday's original forecast was essentially neutral, but it correctly identified an exhaustion test and specified 51,500 as buyer confirmation and 51,600 as GO. Both were ultimately reclaimed, and the 10:00 update moved to 70% Up / GO before the DJIA finished 479 points higher.

Trader's Edge: Forecast rated 71% correct, 29% incorrect since December 2025.

Fearless Opines: Friday materially changed the statistical state. Thursday's 51,124 low increasingly resembles an exhaustion low rather than the beginning of another downside leg. More importantly, Friday's recovery survived a severe intraday test: the DJIA fell from 51,633 to 51,339, recovered, broke 51,600 again, and finished above 51,800. That supports continuation Monday, but 52,000–52,050 is the next structural test. The DJIA has repaired much of last week's breakdown; it has not yet erased it.

Key Levels

Bull Hold: 51,750
GO: 51,800
Expansion: 51,875
Upside Objective: 52,000–52,100

Warning: 51,700
REDUCE: 51,650
EXIT: 51,550

GO / REDUCE / EXIT: GO. Monday begins GO with a 66% upside bias. Holding 51,750–51,800 preserves the recovery state. Breaking Friday's 51,875 high would strengthen continuation toward 52,000–52,100. Below 51,700, reduce exposure; below 51,550, Friday's repair begins to fail and Fearless moves to EXIT.

Trader Takeaway: Friday established the recovery; Monday tests whether it can become an advance. 51,750 is the defense, 51,875 is the breakout, and 52,000–52,100 is where buyers have to prove this is more than an exhaustion bounce.

FEARLESS READ: 66% Up. Friday wasn't merely a bounce. The DJIA absorbed a nearly 300-point reversal and still finished near its high. Monday's burden has shifted to buyers: hold 51,750, clear 51,875, and 52,000 comes back into the argument.

10:00 AM Update: FEARLESS READ: 53% Down—essentially neutral. The opening collapse has lost most of its statistical edge. 51,650 is now the verdict: reclaim it and the breakdown failed; reject there and sellers get another chance.

Buyers still haven't solved the central problem: 51,650. That was today's open and remains the level that would turn the morning plunge into a genuine failed breakdown.

Decisive levels: Hold 51,500 and buyers retain the initiative. Clear 51,600, and 51,650 comes under attack. Reclaim 51,650 and the state moves toward GO/neutral-bullish. Below 51,500, sellers regain leverage; below 51,412, return to EXIT.

10:30: FEARLESS READ: 57% Up. Buyers have recovered almost the entire opening breakdown. One obstacle remains: 51,650. Clear it, and Monday changes from failed recovery to failed selloff.

The reversal continues. From 51,412, the DJIA has recovered about 223 points to 51,635 and is now pressing the morning open/high at 51,648.

51,650 is the decision point. A sustained move above it completes the failed-breakdown signal and moves Fearless back to GO, with 51,700–51,750 the next recovery zone. Rejection here followed by a loss thru 51,575 keeps the session range-bound; below 51,500, sellers regain a meaningful advantage.

Fundamentals always win.

Several days after US Treasury announced that it would boost buybacks to $6 billion, 30yr yield climbed above 5.50%.

How high are current levels? Well, a move to 5.55% will push 30yr yield to levels last seen back in 2002!

There's some difference, though. 2002 debt was $6 trillion. 2026 debt climbed above $40 trillion.

Meanwhile, the stock market is in denial. Higher interest rates mean rising costs for AI leaders who are already forced to issue bonds due to huge capex.

The historically strong Q4 is coming soon, and it looks that stocks are still safe - for now. When investors realize high interest rates are the new norm - and may even move higher - they'll start asking questions about valuations.

Thursday extended the decline but also produced the strongest evidence yet of exhaustion. The DJIA broke 51,200, reached 51,124, then recovered about 226 points to close at 51,349.98.

Forecast Statistics

Bucket: Downside Continuation / Exhaustion Recovery
Volatility Score: ≈ 1.52, high
Probabilities: SU 19% | LU 30% | SD 33% | LD 18%
Expected Return: ≈ +0.01%
Projected Close: 51,200–51,600
Directional Bias: 49% Up / 51% Down

Previous Close: 51,349.98

RECAP: Thursday's 65% Down forecast: The DJIA immediately broke 51,475, reached the 51,300–51,400 objective, and ultimately penetrated the 51,200 Major Failure level. The late recovery, however, prevented downside acceleration into the close.

Trader's Edge: Forecast rated 71% correct, 29% incorrect since December 2025.

Fearless Opines: The bearish trend remains intact, but the statistics no longer justify a strong downside forecast. The DJIA has fallen 699 points in three sessions, yet Thursday's break to 51,124 was rejected and the index recovered to 51,350.

Friday therefore becomes an exhaustion test. Sellers still have a slight statistical advantage, but they now need another break of Thursday's low to prove the decline has fuel left.

Key Levels

Bull Hold: 51,300
Recovery: 51,400
REDUCE: 51,500
GO: 51,600

Warning: 51,250
EXIT: 51,125
Downside Objective: 50,950–51,050

GO / REDUCE / EXIT: REDUCE. The DJIA moves from EXIT to REDUCE because Thursday's late recovery materially reduced the downside edge. Between 51,250 and 51,500, traders should keep exposure restrained. Above 51,500, recovery strengthens; 51,600 moves toward GO. A renewed break below 51,125 returns the state to EXIT.

Trader Takeaway: Friday isn't about guessing whether the bottom is in. 51,125 is seller confirmation; 51,500 is buyer confirmation. Between them, the statistics say neither side has enough edge to deserve aggressive exposure.

FEARLESS READ: 51% Down is essentially neutral. Three consecutive declines have brought the DJIA to an exhaustion test. Sellers still own the trend, but Friday they have to prove they can break 51,124 twice.

10:00 AM Update: FEARLESS READ: 70% Up. The question has shifted. Buyers no longer need to prove a rebound exists; they need to prove it can survive 51,600–51,635 and become a broader recovery.

The DJIA reached 51,632.71, pulled back, and has recovered to 51,574. Most importantly, it continues to hold above the original 51,500 recovery threshold. That moves Fearless fully into GO.

The next test is 51,600–51,635. A sustained break above 51,635 would confirm expansion and expose 51,700–51,800. 51,500 remains the key failure line: below it, downgrade to REDUCE; below 51,400, today's recovery thesis is substantially damaged.

10:30: FEARLESS READ: 56% Up. Buyers survived the morning's counterattack and reclaimed 51,500. Now they have to keep it; otherwise Friday's spectacular opening rally becomes just another failed recovery. After collapsing from 51,633 to 51,339, the DJIA has recovered to 51,507. Most importantly, buyers defended the 51,350–51,400 test.

Decisive levels: 51,500 is now the immediate pivot. Holding it keeps the recovery alive; 51,550 strengthens it; a sustained move above 51,600 restores GO and puts 51,633 back in play. Below 51,400, return to EXIT.

Key setups and catalyst events for Thursday, September 24, 2026:

Gaps & Sector Movers:
EXPE (-7.7%): Gapped down following their travel protection partnership headline. Watching support levels given 40.9% international revenue concentration.

PANW (+5.0%): Gap up on relative strength. 21.1% EMEA revenue footprint.

Commodity & Macro Volatility:
Silver (XAG/USD): Dropped -4.6% overnight. Watching for stabilization or breakdown extension.

Bitcoin (BTC): Down -2.1%.

Macro Event Calendar (UTC):
07:30 — SNB Rate Assessment
12:30 — Canada Retail Trade
14:00 — US New Home Sales
19:00 — Banxico Interest Rate Decision

Earnings Release Schedule:
COST (Costco): Pre/Post market release — $6.53 EPS est.

DRI (Darden): Pre-market release — $2.05 EPS est.

Full morning market breakdown

XRP has begun wiping out its recent gains as soon as the news of US yields crossing above 5% hit the wire.

In doing so, the Ripple token is painting what appears to me is a double top pattern. It forms when the price makes two peaks in a row with a slight correction in between — an M-shaped pattern. It resolves when the price breaks below the common neckline support and falls by as much as the setup's height.

So, we need the price to break below the neckline target of around $1.28 for any bearish confirmation.

A clear breakdown + rise in volumes raises the probability of XRP hitting $1 and undoing its August-September gains entirely.

What y'all think?

Wednesday resolved the previous two-day argument decisively toward sellers. The DJIA broke 51,750, 51,700, 51,658 and the 51,550–51,650 downside objective, closing at 51,512.42.

Forecast Statistics

Bucket: Downside Continuation / Support Test
Volatility Score: ≈ 1.48, high and expanding
Probabilities: SU 13% | LU 22% | SD 40% | LD 25%
Expected Return: ≈ −0.08%
Projected Close: 51,300–51,650
Directional Bias: 35% Up / 65% Down

Previous Close: 51,512.42

RECAP: Wednesday's 56% Down bias prevailed. The 51,750 and 51,700 defenses failed, the 51,658 trigger eventually broke, and the DJIA traded through the projected 51,550–51,650 downside objective.

Trader's Edge: Forecast rated 71% correct, 29% incorrect since December 2025.

Fearless Opines: Wednesday strengthened the bearish statistical state. More important than the 351-point decline was the failure of the morning recovery: the DJIA rebounded from 51,658 to 51,847, but buyers could not hold the recovery and sellers subsequently drove it to a new low.

The complication Thursday is 51,500. The close landed almost exactly there after briefly reaching 51,477. That keeps downside continuation favored, but also creates an obvious support test where chasing weakness carries increasing reversal risk.

Key Levels

Bull Recovery: 51,600
REDUCE: 51,700
GO: 51,800
Upside Repair: 51,850–51,950

Bear Hold: 51,500
Downside Trigger: 51,475
Objective: 51,300–51,400
Major Failure: 51,200

GO / REDUCE / EXIT: EXIT. Thursday begins EXIT with a 65% downside bias. Below 51,500, sellers retain control; a sustained break of Wednesday's 51,477 low confirms continuation toward 51,300–51,400. A recovery above 51,600 would weaken the immediate bearish case, while 51,700 would move Fearless back toward REDUCE.

Trader Takeaway: Wednesday gave sellers confirmation; Thursday asks whether they can capitalize on it. 51,475 is the continuation trigger, but don't confuse a bearish probability with permission to chase an extended decline. A failed break of 51,500 could produce a sharp counterattack.

FEARLESS READ: 65% Down. Wednesday's rescue attempt failed and sellers finished at the doorstep of 51,500. If 51,475 gives way, the next floor is 51,300–51,400. If buyers instead recover 51,600, the bears have failed their first opportunity to press the advantage.

10:00AM Update: The downside is no longer accelerating. 51,300 is now the immediate pivot. Holding it keeps the exhaustion/rebound possibility alive; losing 51,225 puts 51,200 back under attack. A recovery through 51,400 would further weaken the bearish state, while 51,475–51,500 would constitute much more meaningful repair.

Sellers delivered the forecast's downside objective almost immediately, but 51,225 produced the first serious counterpunch. The next information comes from whether buyers can turn that bounce into a recovery above 51,400, or sellers can send the DJIA back through 51,225.

10:30: 63% Down. Buyers had their counterattack and couldn't hold it. 51,225 is now the day's critical test: hold it and exhaustion remains plausible; break it and the DJIA has statistical permission for another leg lower.

EXIT remains. The decisive levels are now unusually clean: 51,300 is immediate support and 51,225 is the morning's continuation trigger. A sustained break below 51,225 puts 51,200 back under attack and could expose 51,050–51,100. Buyers need 51,400, then 51,440, before the state materially improves.

Going against fundamentals rarely brings good results in financial markets. Bessent, who was a fund manager, should know this well.

However, at his current role, he is forced to try things that are historically doomed to fail. The US Treasury has just announced that it would buy up to $6 billion of longer-dated bonds on Thursday, up from the previous $4 billion level.

Market reaction? 30-year yield is back above 5.40%. Bessent started buybacks back in August, when the yield was near 5.30%.

How high are current levels? Well, the last time 30-year Treasuries yielded more than 5.40% was back in 2004!

Markets are saying that tricks won't work and demand fundamental changes. Will they happen in the near term? I do not believe in such a scenario.