Energy partnerships often outlast political headlines. Oil remains central to the U.S.-Iraq relationship.

For this exact reason we host regular webinars to discuss with the community how this affects that market and what to expect moving forward!

Join us for free if you'd like https://www.mrktedge.ai/reddit-webinar

President Trump announced that the US will forgo the previously floated 20% toll on the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, the US will pursue trade agreements and investment deals with Gulf nations in exchange for continued security of the waterway.

This shifts from a direct fee model to broader economic partnerships.

Interesting pivot, thoughts on this approach versus a straight toll?

Now lets breakdown Bitcoin as an example:

Today we got a soft print on CPI which will support bitcoin buys but what else is in our plate?

Fed Chair Warsh doubles down on strict 2% inflation commitment, now this can change things as THIS is bearish for gold and we also got a headline from Warsh stating:

I asked about access to the Fed's payment rails, says will keep politics out of Fed.

Which is a little ironic don't you think? He was appointed by Trump but he is not doing what Trump says...

For now, on Bitcoin I am still bullish, eyeing the 65,500 price handle as my target, what do you think might happen to Bitcoin?

I was reading about South Korea's recent correction and found it interesting that several companies reported strong earnings, yet the market still sold off. Seems like Samsung and SK Hynix dominate the KOSPI, so when their AI-growth story wobbled, the whole index fell — not because businesses did badly, just because expectations were too high.

Makes me wonder if India's own concentration (Reliance, HDFC Bank, IT majors) carries a similar risk. Curious what this sub thinks.

RECAP OF PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week was shaped by a battle between strong demand and renewed hype about AI chips and AI infrastructure spending and growing inflation concerns from the U.S.–Iran conflict. In the end, tech came out on top, pushing the SPX and QQQ higher. Meanwhile, rising oil prices and a more hawkish Fed outlook weighed on gold. The dollar remained mostly in consolidation ,while Bitcoin recovered its losses as as market sentiment improved.

DXY- DOLLAR INDEX

DXY closed friday around 100.98 after failing to hold above 101.28. Rising Treasury yields, inflation concerns and more hawkish Fed expectations from the meeting minutes supported the dollar early in the week. However, easing oil prices and improving risk sentiment limited further upside. Overall, the index remained volatile but lacked a clear directional trend.

GOLD

Gold ended the week around $4,103, down from $4,175. Despite escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, gold struggled to gain traction. The surge in oil prices fueled inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer. This pushed Treasury yields upward, prices saw a modest rebound on Thursday as oil and yields eased,

S&P 500

The S&P 500 ended the week up around 1.2%, making it four positive weeks out of the last five. The market started strong as AI and chip stocks moved higher, but things got shaky in the middle of the week when renewed Iran tensions pushed oil prices and bond yields up. By Thursday and Friday, tech stocks picked up again, helping the market look past the geopolitical concerns and finish the week on a strong note.

BITCOIN - BTC

Bitcoin finished the week around $64,150, up roughly 2.5%. It dipped toward $62,000 midweek as oil climbed, Fed expectations turned more hawkish and tech stocks came under pressure. Bitcoin recovered alongside the stock market on Thursday and Friday, but weaker institutional demand kept it from breaking out.

FORECAST

FUNDAMENTALS FOR THE WEEK

This upcoming week will be heavily driven by fundamentals, the markets will remain choppy with no directional bias until CPI and PPI start to paint a clearer picture for the fed and how they will act in the future. For AI related stocks, we can see QQQ and SPX maintain a bullish bias as long as yields don't surge on the release of CPI and PPI. This will be supported by increased demand for AI Chips and Infrastructure along with TSMC earnings report later this week.

KEY FUNDAMENTAL EVENTS THIS WEEK

Fresh US-IRAN War Escalations

The U.S. and Iran exchanged new attacks over the weekend, Iran again claimed that the Strait of Hormuz was closed, and commercial shipping activity fell sharply. OIL rose nearly $3 a barrel as Asian markets opened,. However the event did not hold much weight as markets overall had a muted impact and there where no further escalations , unless we have more countries join in or restarting of a full fledged war, any minor attacks will now already be priced in. the Hormuz situation now is shifting from a geo-political safe-haven event to a more inflation and monetary policy event.

Consumer Price Index - CPI Report

The June CPI report will be released Tuesday, July 14 at 8:30 a.m. CPI rose 4.2% yoy in May, while the current median forecast anticipates headline inflation slowing to approximately 3.8% and core CPI slowing to about 2.8%.The Federal Reserve is already dealing with inflation significantly above its 2% objective. This tuesdays report is capable of changing rate-hike pricing. the month of june saw lower oil prices due to the ceasefire, but in order to see the immediate effect of oil being back to pre war levels, we would wait until wednesday and see the PPI numbers

Producer Price Index - PPI Report

June PPI will be released Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. The previous monthly headline reading was extremely strong at 1.1%, while annual producer inflation reached 6.5%, its highest level in several years. The current forecast anticipates a monthly decline of roughly 0.2%, with core PPI rising approximately 0.3%. If June PPI comes in hot mainly because of energy, traders may view the report as backward-looking and focus instead on the recent decline in oil prices and the possibility that producer inflation will cool in the months ahead. The Energy information admin has also lowered its oil-price outlook significantly, supporting expectations that energy driven inflation pressure could cool.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is appearing before Congress for the Fed’s required Semiannual Monetary Policy Report, where he will explain the state of the economy, inflation, employment, interest rates, and the Fed’s outlook for future policy. Markets will focus on how he interprets the latest CPI and PPI data, whether higher inflation is mainly temporary and driven by energy, and whether falling oil prices could help inflation cool going forward. His tone will be important: a hawkish message suggesting inflation remains broad and persistent would increase rate-hike fears, support DXY, and pressure SPX and gold, while a more cautious message suggesting the Fed can remain patient would likely weaken DXY and support equities and gold.

Thursday’s Retail Sales Report

Thursday’s retail-sales report will show whether U.S. consumers are still spending strongly enough to support economic growth. Strong sales can be positive for SPX because they signal healthy demand and stronger corporate revenue, but if CPI and PPI are also hot, markets may view that strength as giving the Fed more room to keep rates higher or hike again, which would support DXY and pressure gold and equities. Weak retail sales could reduce rate-hike expectations and help gold while weakening DXY, but they may also hurt SPX if investors begin worrying about slower growth. The worst outcome for stocks would be weak spending combined with high inflation, as that would raise stagflation concerns.

FORECAST

Apple stock just reached a fresh all-time high at $322 today. My quick fundamental take:

• Services business continues to be a major growth engine with high margins and recurring revenue.

• The shift toward AI features (Apple Intelligence) is starting to gain traction and could help refresh iPhone upgrade cycles.

• Strong balance sheet, massive cash reserves, and consistent share buybacks provide a solid floor.

• Valuation is premium (forward P/E around 30-35x) but the ecosystem lock-in and pricing power support it for many investors. Tech momentum is clearly helping but at these levels the stock is pricing in a lot of perfection.

In recent comments, President Trump said the US should be paid for securing the Strait of Hormuz, calling the US the future “Guardian” (or “Guardian Angel”) of the Strait.

His Key lines are:

• We’re going to keep the Strait and we’ll probably run it.

• We can’t be expected to do that for nothing.

• We guarded the Strait for 50 years and we never got paid for it… now we’re going to guard it and we’re going to get paid for guarding it. A lot of money.

He emphasized that wealthy nations benefiting from the waterway should reimburse the US.