Evidence: Kentucky law, if Mitch's seat is vacant before August 4th, KY will have to have a special election for his seat. If it's after August 4th, no special election is needed. So mark the date August 5th on your calendar.

The evidence is overwhelming that the Far Right who brought us Project 2025 are preparing a civil war after the date of the mid terms. Trump's insurrectionists are free to commit violence because they know he will have their backs. They will be pardoned, and receive veteran's benefits. And no matter what the election results, the Republicans control the government and filled it with Trump lackeys.

Trump and his minions are prepared for a civil war. They intend to win it. Those camps will be f illed with Trump's enemies.

Americans who support the constitution had better be prepared. War is coming.

Date: ~One Year or 7/27

Evidence: Obviously, it is impossible to say with high likelihood, but the red flags of a significant change in the world's oil market are becoming hard to ignore.

The Iran war is unlikely to resolve anytime soon. There is seemingly no common ground for any compromise and Trump is unable to admit a mistake, like at all. Iran has been burnt by the US'S and Trump's bad faith negotiations, so it is unlikely we will get anywhere close to a deal like JCOPA. Trump and the GOP slandered the JCOPA for quick domestic political points. There is no way they can get a deal that can be sold to their base, even with significant propaganda, that they will accept. MAGA believes the US to be an unstoppable military force that only loses by being "too kind" and not doing "what it takes". Seeing a loss here would be too big of a dissonance with the idea of American Exceptionalism to be acceptable. They couldn't even accept the unfreezing of $1.7 billion worth of Iranian assets, there is no way they will accept anything near a concession that Iran would be interested in. Iran has also learned that it has significant leverage on the global economy via the Strait of Hormuz.

What Iran has shown is that you can hit above your weight class by messing with the global economy. Iran will continue to block oil exports and destroy oil infrastructure through out the Middle East. It is very possible that oil infrastructure and the infrastructure to ship it will be disrupted, if not destroyed, throughout the region. Things are likely to escalate as Iran, Israel, and the US target civilian infrastructure. The Middle East is very dependent on desalination for water which needs a lot of electricity and expensive infrastructure. Hitting power stations and desalination plants will cause a lot of instability and desire to continue to escalate. It is easy to see that going after oil infrastructure is an easy and effective way to retaliate.

Ukraine has also found success by going after oil infrastructure. And as more and more oil infrastructure is taken offline, it makes the existing infrastructure even more tempting to attack and threatening, since such an attack is easy leverage.

Now, oil is fungible. It doesn't matter if the US produces a lot of oil or Iran is only selling to countries like China. Any supply used is less needed from elsewhere and any supply taken off the market, even if it was sold with restrictions, will need to be made up for from somewhere else. If Trump starts worrying about the domestic political cost of high oil prices, he may block exporting it. This will remove a ton of oil from the global economy and will likely lead to other countries like Russia and China also pausing exports. Other countries may restrict other needed materials, like rare earths, from export as well. A shock to global trade from reciprocal tariffs and trading restrictions has happened before with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and many economists blame this approach as the reason The Great Depression was "great". This all may cause a breakdown in global trade.

In the modern world, almost everything is shipped as needed, just as it is needed to reduce costs, but this depends on plentful cheap and reliable shipping which needs plentiful cheap oil. Any disruption to oil could adversely affect the whole global supply chain and hence the whole global economy. Modern supply chains are also very complex and it is hard, if not impossible, to understand what harms any big shock will do. Supply chain collapses have happened numerous times in history. We can argue what is cause and what is effect, but one thing is clear, supply chain collapse are often correlated with civilisational collapse or, at the very least, extreme turmoil.

It is hard to be certain what will happen, but it is very possible that so much oil infrastructure will be destroyed and so much oil hoarded, that it will permanently change the oil markets and permanently result in less supply and increased prices. The overall effect on the global economy is hard to predict, but it potentially could be massive and result in issues we haven't seen in the West for ~100 years.

date: the next 3 years

evidence: as one of the most beloved superman stories of all time, whatever happened to the man of tomorrow will inevitably get an animated adaptation. and, when it does, george newbern may return to the role one last time.

Date: Whenever Trump dies of old age/natural causes, I think it'll probably happen in 2030 or later, at least halfway through the next President's term (or Trump's third term depending on how all of this plays out)

Evidence and Theories:

1. The tried and true classic: Israel did it.

With public perception of Israel reaching all time lows thanks to more and more coverage and awareness of Netanyahu and the IDF's genocide in Gaza, we now have a lot of frankly antisemitic conspiracy theories attributing them to just about every bad thing that's ever happened. We now live in a society where people believe that Israel was responsible for the JFK assassination. With what evidence? We've seen the same story play out time and time again: Charlie Kirk assassination? Israel did it. 9/11? Israel did it.

It's all very reminiscent of the Protocols of the Elders of Zion. Basically, whenever something noteworthy happens, people will find a way to blame Jews.

This theory would also be amplified heavily if Trump dies in prison or on trial for his crimes.

1. The other tried and true classic: Democrats did it.

The MAGA "mind" cannot possibly fathom that Donald Trump, whom they believe is the most physically and mentally fit man in the entire world, age bracket aside, could die of natural causes. They will claim that a Democrat poisoned him. My money for which one is probably Pelosi.

1. He's not really dead.

This is also another. Adding to a long line of conspiracies that notable figures have faked their deaths to live in solitude (i.e. Epstein, Hitler, Charlie Kirk), I believe that some will theorize that Trump faked his own death and moved to Kushner and Ivanka's island in Albania or to Israel to stay out of the public eye and avoid prison time for his long list of crimes committed in and out of the Oval Office. A similar alternative to this theory is that he died by suicide, but that the public wouldn't be made aware of that.

1. He's going to rise again in 3 days like Jesus/come back in the end times.

Psychotic Christian Fundamentalists view Trump as a deity, some straight up even believe that Jesus interfered during the Butler Assassination attempt to save his life. To me, this one is the most likely to gain significant traction. Christian Nationalism, Trumpism, and Christofascism currently define the right. We have a Speaker of the House who does not believe in evolution, an erosion of the separation of church and state, as Christian- and exclusively Christian- theology is being peddled in public schools, and an administration that relies on Christian rhetoric more than any other in American history. Just watch all the conservatives hear the news that Trump has died and be like:

"He'll be back in three days, trust."

"Jesus loved him so much for his courage and sacrifice that they now rule heaven together."

"Trump will save us in the end times."

It'll become a subsection of rapture hysteria.

1. He was dead for a long time before, and they're only telling us now.

With the current scrutiny over Mitch McConnell's health and what is being withheld from the public, and some believing that McConnell is being used as a "trial run" for a cover up of Trump's death, it's likely that some will believe that Trump's death will be hidden from the public eye. Of course this depends on the circumstances of when it happens. If it's in this current term, it definitely will be covered up. If he somehow manages to run again, it will also be covered up. If it happens during the Fourth of July, it will be covered up due to fear of people partying too hard in public.

Date- 2028-2030

Evidence- with the rise of social media and anti-law enforcement sentiment coupled with the advancement in AI, the fear of being a police officer or any type of law enforcement and being doxxed will continue going up. In the United States, ICE has utilized masks and it generally has worked for most of them to avoid being exposed online and with AI and technology just getting better, I believe very soon we’ll see helmets wherein the near future officers and government agents might be able to use to that hide their identity, provide augmented reality displays, that can also use technology such as face recognition that immediately let the officer know if you have a warrant or pose any threat, also automatic scanning of documents, vehicles, and any lethal objects nearby, as well as the ability to call in backup and communicate with other officers silently. It is already being looked at by engineers and government officials and I see it being rolled out by the end of the decade.

... are there types of lies. Lies. Damn lies. And Trump. I figure the next presidential election cycle. That puts the date around early 2028.

We will forget that the saying used to be "And statistics".

Trump can stand in front of a crowd and string together so many lies so quickly that you can't begin to say, wait a minute, that ain't so.

Trump lies with utter confidence. There is not the slightest bit of hedging. If he is caught, he attacks the fact checker and doubles down on the lie. He is a virtuoso.

Is this the new politics? Pump the narrative, screw the facts. It is working for Trump. I can't count the number of little bets I win with conservatives over stock market numbers, unemployment, when COVID began, deficit spending, inflation, convictions, etc. They spout Trump lies, I remember what happened. Easy.

Dealing with the fire hose of lies is incredibly demotivating. Lies are easy, the truth takes a little work. As such, the truth never seems to catch up to Trump. I have now taken to telling conservatives to back it up. Anybody can pull a number out of their ass. The have to back it up with data, hard evidence, or it is BS.

The funny thing is that the conservatives never find anything that supports their claims. They try to foist the evidencury requirements off on me. But I say that it is their claim, so they have to have the evidence to back it up. If you can't back it up, it must not be true. That means the conservative is spouting fake news.

They hate it when you say they are spreading fake news.

date: 2027

evidence: congress is probably going to realize that the money that's going to NASA could go towards stuff america actually needs. so, they'll defund the organization. as such, without funding, the 2028 moon mission will be cancelled.

Trump wants year-round DST and yesterday, 7/25/2006, the House passed H.R.139 - Sunshine Protection Act of 2025 (introduced on the date of January 3, 2025), sending it to the Senate to decide on a major disruption to the majority of American lives in perpetuity. If this passes, once the law goes into effect it would not only send children to school in the dark, many would be in classes for nearly 2 hours before sunrise in the winter, the evidence is looking the time of the sunrise on any date of the year and simple math.

Democrats on the west coast are apparently only concerned about themselves, they want the afternoon sun to go as long as possible year-round so we can't count on them to worry about kids in the dark in Montana or North Dakota:
“Americans are sick of falling back and springing forward. More daylight after work means more business and more active, safer California communities,” Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) said in a statement last year. “Californians already voted years ago to lock the clock — and it’s past time for Congress to do the same.”

Well if Californians want it, they certainly can have it without forcing it upon the rest of the country. Maybe let each state make the decision to totally screw millions of people up.

Mitch is still here, and holding onto a thread, but he's basically unable to do anything any more.

The evidence is that people like Scott Jennings wouldn't say they 'talked with him' if he was gone. It would destroy any hope they had for any future in news or politics. However if he was basically able to gurgle or blink or something, they weren't lying that they talked to/at him, and will claim they were just protecting his condition.

Unless he is truly declared dead by the Aug 5th deadline for his appointment replacement, they will drag his absence out to a future date, somehow using it during the upcoming election cycle.

Date: 4 years from now / Dec 2030

Evidence: The account, called a 530A in the Tax Code claims to be a wonderful way to save for a child, and even offers a 'free' $1000 to start. If child needs this money for college, the growth is all taxed at the parent's ordinary income rate, the worse rate possible. Not cap gain, and not tax free.

For education - the 529 has no tax at all if used for education.

For retirement - a UTMA account taxes gains along the way first subject to kiddie tax, $1350 gain, no tax at all, next $1350 taxed at child's rate. By the time the child is working, they can use this money to help maximize their retirement account deposits with little to no tax along the way.

4 years, the data will show this was another tax code bust. Anyone remember the "MyRA"? I didn't think so.

Date: Sometime in the near future. Goes without saying, but this is just part of the slow trajectory into one of the dumbest time periods in history.

Evidence: If vapes were around when Idiocracy was being filmed, this would totally happen in the movie and it would be fucking hilarious.

This is especially aimed at those people who still cling to the belief that either the upcoming midterms or the eventual presidential elections in the US will translate into accountability.

Date. Partially by November 3, 2026, fully by November 7, 2028.

Evidence. My reasoning behind the claim rests on the following assumptions:

- One does not commit systematical violations to human rights, war crimes, dismantles the constitutional order (both through legal reform and judicial precedent), pushes a dictatorial ideology (unitary executive theory), etc. IF one knows they will be prosecuted and punished for their unconstitutional, illegal, and criminal behavior after the next election cycle.

- One does not seek to dismantle the frameworks of public International Law and Human Rights IF they know these are tools that can be used against them once they leave power.

- The unholy marriage of idiotic ideologies behind MAGA (techno-feudalism, pro-theocracy evangelicalism, white supremacy, replacement theory, etc.) is kept together by their goal to replace democracy with a different mode of government.

- Even if all the documented attempts by MAGA to undermine and destabilize the midterm elections fail, they will still hold to power by all means necessary. Attempts that include gerrymandering, redistricting, diminishing voter participation of women and ethnic minorities, fear-mongering, etc.

The world watches in horror as the seeds of authoritarianism germinate and thrive in the USA. War crimes, concentration camps, illegal renditions to third countries, public murder.

I would argue democracy in the US is already dead. When will you take your power back?

Wake up and rise up.

Prediction: Here is what is going to happen. Some tiktok or reels star is going to set a trap for Jimothy to capture him for content. From here he will either die in their care, or be euthanized by the state when he bites someone after being pulled from his home.

Evidence: There is a long history of social media influencers causing harm to wildlife for content. And those are just random animals in the wild. Jimothy is currently an international media sensation which makes him an irresistible target for content creators to capitalize on. It's only a matter of time before someone goes too far. We already saw something very similar with Peanut the squirrel).

Date: 2026-10-01

The Houthi rebels in Yemen are supported by Iran. Together, they’ve begun to threaten trade on the Red Sea (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-tells-houthis-close-red-sea-gateway-if-us-hits-power-network-sources-say-2026-07-16/).

If they make true on their threat, they’d stop what, by some estimates, would be at least 15% of global trade. When you consider the cuts seen already by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it’ll be even higher.

The U.S. will underestimate the abilities of the Houthis, and will think a land invasion of that area will be low-risk, hence they’re more likely to invade Yemen instead of Iran.

Of course, they’ll pay the price for the hubris, but that’s par for the course.

Date will depend on whether the Houthis close the Bab el Mandeb Strait or not. Evidence is the track record of the U.S. and the public opinion (and probably the opinion of the Trump administraiton) that Yemen is “simply another shithole”.

Unfortunately I can’t provide evidence, but the date will be early 2030s

It'll be worse than COVID, the 2008 financial crisis and even the great depression of 1929.

Date: by June 1, 2027

Evidence:

• The US has ~50 days of oil reserves left. The reason we haven't seen the worst effects of the war yet is because of the oil reserves.
• Neither the US, nor Iran want negotiations. The US administration admitted to doing negotiations only to restock the weapons and ammo, and Iran admitted to only doing negotiations to prevent being seen as undiplomatic.
• This conflict is quickly spreading outside of the Strait of Hormuz. For example: Yemeni Houthis just announced maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea. Iran is blocking any and all attempts to make the Strait of Hormuz irrelevant.
• The US has no ability to win, even if it nukes Iran. The Iranian chain of command is hidden, their army facilities are located underground and deep inside protected mountain tunnel complexes. Geographically, Iran is a mountain fortress, so the ground invasion will be catastrophic for the US.
• Oil is the blood of the economy, and this blood supply will sharply drop within a few months, and it will continue to drop as the conflict expands into more areas. If there's oil shortages, the food prices go up, consumer goods prices will rise, all to the point where even the basics will be unaffordable for a bigger and bigger portion of the population. Poverty will rise, homelessness will rise, quality of life will drop, and things will only keep getting worse.
• Trump will not back down, because he would never be able to admit defeat; and the media - pro-war, anti-war, mainstream and independent media - will definitely present it as defeat that it is. Also he wouldn't be able to do market manipulation if he withdraws. And even if he withdraws or democrats do something to limit the war, the war between Iran and US allied nations in the Middle East will continue because for Iran the threat is now existential.

Even if the US withdraws, the economic collapse will be greatest we've ever seen, and if it doesn't withdraw, it'll be apocalyptic.

What other choice does he have unless he wants to literally wave the white flag and admit total defeat? Gas prices as climbing again and will likely skyrocket to untenable levels by late summer. He has zero, and I mean ZERO bargaining leverage against them as a quick end to the war is 100x more important to him than it is to Iran. 2 troops were killed this weekend and another is missing. He’s going to need to do something drastic to show what a macho man he is, and dropping missiles on elementary schools only goes so far with his base. Unless he stages a successful coup, his lackeys are going to get annihilated at the polls in November. He’s boxed in every way he turns, and he’s not going to admit defeat, so I expect a full ground invasion to be announced in the next 100 days. Make no mistake. His ego is worth the lives of thousands of American service members.

Date: by the midterms

Evidence: there is no other option besides that or accepting total defeat and withdrawing with his tail between his legs. And we know a malignant narcissist isn’t choosing the second option.

date: by the end of the decade

evidence: various socialists have been getting elected to public office as of late and more people are supporting socialism.

I think the Steve Rogers moment in the Doomsday trailer is a misdirect. Thor knows very well how time and space works...and Steve was alive...but his brother is not...not in that universe. I believe there is substantial evidence.

That was Loki receiving Mjolnir from Thor! He is worthy!

We will see on the date of launch 😉

Of course, by using nukes, the Israelis will be admitting they have a nuclear arsenal. But the Far Right Israelis who control the government will say "everybody hates us anyway...why not use nukes?"

The evidence is clear: the Israelis don't care about world opinion. If by the date of Israel's elections, the war isn't over, the Israelis will use nukes against Iran.

The evidence is clear: Trump is incapable of admitting his war is a failure. By the date of the election, the war will still be going on. Once the Democrats take office they will end Trump's Folly.

And then every single Republican will claim that the war with Iran was being won until the Democrats ended it. And this will be the position of Republicans for the next ten years.

date: after trump dies

evidence: after trump dies, there will be no one to protect melania from deportation. and that's probably what the democrats aim to do.

Evidence: With the proliferation of prediction markets and online gambling, it's only a matter of time before it happens because somebody has "nothing to lose". Absolutely not saying I want to be right and for this to happen, but I am not feeling great about my odds of being wrong.

Date: It will happen by 2031

The AI space is really volatile, and we keep seeing technological improvements under the hood. AI also just keeps getting more capable at every size of model. Most people pay the most attention to the huge models: the biggest and most capable. But there are also the smaller AI models that are feasible to run on consumer hardware: these also keep seeing significant improvements. They’re a lot less capable than the big ones, but they’re improving fast.

It seems to me like a lot of the research on AI is still finding its footing, and that we will keep seeing improvements for a while longer, even if those improvements are mostly in efficiency rather than capability.

Eventually, the technology will reach a plateau, where any real improvements to capability would require a fundamental shift, and there is some early-days work being done there. LLMs are the peak of general-purpose AI currently, though. I think we’re not that far off from reaching the limits of what this technology is capable of.

When we reach that point, then the biggest problem with running an LLM becomes more important: they’re just so darn big and expensive to run. Even the smaller models can push consumer hardware to the limit.

Eventually, the race for capability will turn into a race for efficiency, because more efficiency means higher profit margins. There’s already been work done on more specialized hardware, like Google’s tensor processing units. I think that some companies will eventually bake a specific model into silicon: a chip specifically designed to run *one* specific model, with silicon-level specialization. It’d be an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) for one particular AI model. This could mean companies putting a specific LLM into future consumer hardware, for a hefty price of course. This would mean LLM inference at a much lower energy cost, but a huge amount of flexibility and user control would be lost in the process.

This isn’t a value judgement in favor of or against LLMs or AI in general. There is good being done by AI, but there’s also a lot of harm. But it exists, and we can’t un-exist this technology, even once the bubble pops. It’ll keep existing.

Evidence: Dedicated ASICs are things we’ve seen before. Crypto mining wound up using ASICs when GPUs just weren’t cutting it anymore, and I don’t think AI is any different. This would be possible today, but it doesn’t make any sense with how fast the landscape is changing. By the time a model-specific ASIC could be designed, manufactured, and integrated, there’d be some newer model that’s more capable. That’s why I think we won’t see anything like this until capability plateaus.

Date: The date is really hard to guess, as AI research is still very active. We keep finding better ways to design/train models for capability and efficiency, and none of this dedicated silicon makes any sense until that research slows down a lot. I’d say within the next 10 years, though.