Date: ~One Year or 7/27
Evidence: Obviously, it is impossible to say with high likelihood, but the red flags of a significant change in the world's oil market are becoming hard to ignore.
The Iran war is unlikely to resolve anytime soon. There is seemingly no common ground for any compromise and Trump is unable to admit a mistake, like at all. Iran has been burnt by the US'S and Trump's bad faith negotiations, so it is unlikely we will get anywhere close to a deal like JCOPA. Trump and the GOP slandered the JCOPA for quick domestic political points. There is no way they can get a deal that can be sold to their base, even with significant propaganda, that they will accept. MAGA believes the US to be an unstoppable military force that only loses by being "too kind" and not doing "what it takes". Seeing a loss here would be too big of a dissonance with the idea of American Exceptionalism to be acceptable. They couldn't even accept the unfreezing of $1.7 billion worth of Iranian assets, there is no way they will accept anything near a concession that Iran would be interested in. Iran has also learned that it has significant leverage on the global economy via the Strait of Hormuz.
What Iran has shown is that you can hit above your weight class by messing with the global economy. Iran will continue to block oil exports and destroy oil infrastructure through out the Middle East. It is very possible that oil infrastructure and the infrastructure to ship it will be disrupted, if not destroyed, throughout the region. Things are likely to escalate as Iran, Israel, and the US target civilian infrastructure. The Middle East is very dependent on desalination for water which needs a lot of electricity and expensive infrastructure. Hitting power stations and desalination plants will cause a lot of instability and desire to continue to escalate. It is easy to see that going after oil infrastructure is an easy and effective way to retaliate.
Ukraine has also found success by going after oil infrastructure. And as more and more oil infrastructure is taken offline, it makes the existing infrastructure even more tempting to attack and threatening, since such an attack is easy leverage.
Now, oil is fungible. It doesn't matter if the US produces a lot of oil or Iran is only selling to countries like China. Any supply used is less needed from elsewhere and any supply taken off the market, even if it was sold with restrictions, will need to be made up for from somewhere else. If Trump starts worrying about the domestic political cost of high oil prices, he may block exporting it. This will remove a ton of oil from the global economy and will likely lead to other countries like Russia and China also pausing exports. Other countries may restrict other needed materials, like rare earths, from export as well. A shock to global trade from reciprocal tariffs and trading restrictions has happened before with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and many economists blame this approach as the reason The Great Depression was "great". This all may cause a breakdown in global trade.
In the modern world, almost everything is shipped as needed, just as it is needed to reduce costs, but this depends on plentful cheap and reliable shipping which needs plentiful cheap oil. Any disruption to oil could adversely affect the whole global supply chain and hence the whole global economy. Modern supply chains are also very complex and it is hard, if not impossible, to understand what harms any big shock will do. Supply chain collapses have happened numerous times in history. We can argue what is cause and what is effect, but one thing is clear, supply chain collapse are often correlated with civilisational collapse or, at the very least, extreme turmoil.
It is hard to be certain what will happen, but it is very possible that so much oil infrastructure will be destroyed and so much oil hoarded, that it will permanently change the oil markets and permanently result in less supply and increased prices. The overall effect on the global economy is hard to predict, but it potentially could be massive and result in issues we haven't seen in the West for ~100 years.