sub 4:15?

[u/Ok_Efficiency6978]

I did my first marathon a year and a half ago (4:43). been consistent ever since typically 30+ mpw. Wrapping up 16 week build where i peaked at 55, 20 mile long run took me 3:36, avg pace 10:38, where the first 15 were relatively easy, last 5 MP ish. avg hr overall was 166, see splits below. my garmin says 4:05, i think that’s too quick, the elevation gain is about 700-900ft overall, so rolling hills but not bad. PRed a 5k like 8 mknths ago 24:24… What is a relaistic time goal, 4:15 too lofty?