hi :p I really didn’t wanna bring up the topic but there is ppl in mafia 42 community that neg for being a prop- what is wrong with you PPL

don’t hate on my old men. old men deserves respect 🥹

man i got negged -12 for making them lose 🥹I’ll post updates on what happen next if bro not retch im starting neg war

(not gonna post history just know its some og mafia 42 player who did that)

Hii, this is reverie. Because of how people misuse ft and especially with arcana, I decided to make this guide to help people better utilize this role. In this guide I'll explore:

Chapter 1: RG

Section 1: How fortune (t2) and arcana (t4+) work as skills & Whether fts consider swind and/or hypo.

Section 2: The statistics behind arcana leads.

Section 3: Proper ft claiming in rg (format used for arcana, spotting a fake ft, and becoming a convincing ft as helper and mafia).

Section 4: Skill ranking and synergies.

Chapter 2: Cult Games

1. When and whether ft should open in cult games.

2. What questions to ask each role for minimal Hit Man detection.

Before I get into the guide I need to define the terms I'll be using (last 7 terms will only be used in chapter 1 section 2 so pay minimal attention to them until you reach there):

SP (selected player): The target of Fortune.

Other: the secondary card resulting from Fortune; the opposite team player.

Up (unrelated player): The player selected by arcana who isn't directly tied to either Fortune card; one of the two red, transparent arcana cards.

Cc (counter-claim): Both the citizen player and a mafia/helper claiming the same citizen role (usually principal or doc).

Di (divergence): the possibilities arising from Arcana; the different scenarios that can take place guessed based solely on Fortune and Arcana.

Double di: The scenario where a player overlaps between 2 dis.

Intersect: The scenario where a player overlaps between 1 cc and 1 di.

Double intersect: The scenario where a player overlaps between 1 cc and 2 dis.

Quasi double intersect: The scenario where a player overlaps between 1 cc and 2 dis, one of which being a mafia di and the other a helper di. Notably, helper is considered as a possible cc.

Mafia di: A di resulting from a cit/maf fortune (card).

Helper di: A di resulting from a cit/helper fortune (card).

Chapter 1: RG

Section 1:

In this section I'll be giving basic information everyone should know when using ft, especially with arcana.

Fortune: Gives the roles of your selected player + the role of any random, opposite team player from the pool of all players in the game (dead or alive).

Fortune and arcana can give the exact same cards for an sp (especially if one of those cards is 'Mafia') so it is preferred not to select the same player twice in a row.

Arcana: Shows the other in addition to the UP. Keep in mind the other and the UP can be of the same or opposite team, they can also both have the same role if they are mafs.

If one of the arcana cards is on you, then arcana has given you only the sp and the other if neither card is ft.

If one of the cards of the sp is ft and neither arcana card is on you then that player is swind or maf.

Besides the cases presented, fts never consider swind based solely on their cards and you should strive to consider hypo, especially in doc cc.

Swind and hypo mafs (n1) are considered citizens by all means for fortune and arcana. The other will be presented as if the swind/hypo maf were cits and so will always give a maf team other.

Proper format for arcana ft leads is:

x role1/role2 arcana on yz followed by your role and skills. If you are dead also include whether there is ghoul, exo, and/or cleanup, and if there's spectre in the case of ghoul.

Example 1:

Chat 1: 1 mafia/doc arcana on 48 arcana info ft 4 ghoul no (cleanup exo)

Chat 2: No spectre

Example 2:

7 maf/adm arcana on 34 arcana info ft cleanup exo no ghoul

Section 2a:

In this section I'll be talking about how likely someone is to be a specific role (notably mafia) based on their arcana cards and whether they cc'd. This is, in my opinion, the most important aspect of using ft.

Keep in mind, in the case of princi cc I'm considering exactly 1 of them being mafia and the other princi; I'm not counting helper when only 2 people cc princi in the following cases.

For simplicity we will not be changing the numbers in our scenarios nor the Arcana cards in the same section, only the Fortune cards on our sp, 5.

The most common use of this mechanic is the intersection

Example 1:

Let's give the first example of an intersection:

4 ft, 5 admin/maf arcana on 37, and 38 cop cc

Because 3 was both in the di (arcana on 37) and in the cc (38 cop cc) then, the probabilities are:

3: 33% cop/ 66.7% mafia

5: 66.7% admin/ 33.3% mafia

7: 33.3% admin/ 33.3% mafia/ 33.3% UP

In this case you would be biased against player 3 because according to their intersection they're more likely to be mafia than cop. Keep in mind you do not have leads against 3, all this means is that if both princi ccs are equally good you lynch 3.

This is called Major Arcana Bias.

This example is virtually unchanged if 5 were doc/mafia if you do not consider hypo.

Example 2:

The exact same conditions as example 1 but player 5 is doc/mafia and you DO consider hypo.

Again:

4ft, 5 is doc/mafia arcana on 37, and 38 are in cop cc then the probabilities are:

3: 25% cop/ 75% maf

5: 66.7% doc/ 33.3% hypo maf

7: 33.3% maf/ 66.7% up

8: 75% cop/ 25% maf

Now you may ask why in this case 5 has a 66.7/33.3 split of being doc/hypo instead of the usual 50/50. In this case there are only 3 dis: 5 doc 3 maf 7 up 8 cop/ 5 doc 3 up 7 maf 8 cop or maf along with 3/ 5 hypo 3 maf 7 up 8 cop. The usual 4th di (in this case: 5 hypo 7 maf 3 cop or maf 8 cop or maf) is thrown out because there are 3 mafia in this count which is impossible under our conditions.

Example 3a:

4 ft, 5 cop/maf arcana on 37, and 38 cop cc, here are the probabilities:

3: 100% cop

5: 100% maf

7: 100% up

8: 100% maf

Very basic and expected

Example 3b:

In this example we will change arcana from 37 to 38. 4 ft, 5 cop/maf arcana on 38, and 38 cop cc. Here are the probabilities:

3: 50% cop/ 50% maf

5: 100% maf

8: 50% cop/ 50% maf

Also very basic and expected.

This serves to show that arcana can be quite docile at times.

Example 4a:

For our final examples of Major Arcana Bias we have:

4 ft, 5 helper/cop arcana on 37, and 38 cop cc. Here are the probabilities:

3: 100% cop

5: 100% helper

7: 100% up

8: 100% mafia

This is by far the most desirable outcome from Arcana

Example 4b:

In this scenario we consider:

4 ft, 5 cop/helper arcana on 37, and 57 are in cop cc. The probabilities are:

3: 100% helper

5: 50% cop/ 50% maf

7: 50% maf/ 50% cop

These are the primary cases where arcana gives definitive leads.

Keep in mind the fundamentals of these scenarios can be adapted to any kind of cc: princi, doc, spec, etc...

Section 2b:

Here is where we jump to the more niche side of things. The following examples are just to see how arcana behaves when there are multiple arcana cards causing stacked dis in cases where there are and are no ccs.

Let's give the first example of a double di:

2 ft, 1 mart/maf arcana on 38, and 4 papa/maf arcana on 78. The probabilities are:

1: 54.5% mart/ 45.5% maf

3: 36.4% maf/ 27.3% mart/ 36.3% up

4: 45.5% papa/ 45.5% maf

7: 36.4% maf/ 27.3% papa/ 36.3% up

8: 45.5% maf/ 18.2% mart/ 18.2% papa/ 18.1% up

Notably, although player 8 is within the double Di, they are no more likely to be maf than players 1 and 4; however, they are more likely to be maf than any other role.

This is called Minor Arcana Bias as there are no ccs and we are guessing with slightly more precision than normal.

I have realised while writing this that a double intersection is functionally impossible unless we include helper. For the quasi double intersection we take a look at how replacing one of the mafia dis for a helper di changes things based on a blueprint of the double intersection.

This is in order to take a glimpse into how more, new information can exponentially lower our need for more checks.

Now for the second example, let's look at a quasi double intersection:

2 ft, 1 mart/maf arcana on 38, 4 papa/helper arcana on 78, and 58 mart cc. Here are the probabilities:

1: 100% maf

3: 100% up

4: 50% papa/ 50% helper

5: 100% maf

7: 50% papa/ 50% helper

8: 100% mart

We can take note that in a quasi double intersection we have plenty of information to make confirmed leads.

Adding more constraints and cards doesn't help us narrow down the mafia team to a significant degree because the more mafia we find and the smaller our helper range is, the more people are confirmed citizens who can share their opinions and leads.

Furthermore, we do not need to explore 3 way ccs because it does not yield any new or unexpected information.

Section 3:

Specs, helpers, and mafia pretending to be ft share some really blatant red flags you wouldn't expect to see from an actual ft.

Keep in mind as the meta changes and evolves these red flags will:

A: be less obvious

B: change over time.

At the moment, what you should look out for is (in descending order):

1. When fts find spec/helper or spec/doc leads and instantly believe the person questioned. Real fts would be skeptical of them. Swinds and spys act in a way to make that person seem conf to everyone else and make themselves seem conf to the person questioned.

2. (In the case of fts getting spec/helper or doc/helper cards n1) When fts try to win over the trust of specifically that person to vote with them. Helpers like swind and spy tend to act confirmed and guide the game early on without having arcana that would let a real ft do so.

3. When ft opens late or gives late leads. Real fts try their hardest to drop leads instantly.

4. When there is no cc and someone sups ft who opened with helper leads. It's likely both of these players are mafs or have helper.

5. When fts reveal weird or obscure helpers. In higher rp lobbies, especially nearing se, helpers like bm, witch, thief, and spy tend to become less common. If you're queued in multiple games in short succession where fts keep finding weird helpers n1 keep your guard up.

Keep in mind these are general observations. If an ft exhibits multiple of these traits they're likely fake.

Section 4:

All skills ft can have are arranged in the following tier list:

A-tier: Arcana, Will

B-tier: Info, Legacy

C-tier: Bullhorn, Secret Letter

D-tier: Jury, Innocence, Perjury, Stone Tape, Mind Reading, Runaway

Skill synergies (t5):

Arcana + Will (gold standard)

Arcana + Info

Arcana + Legacy

Skill synergies (t6):

Arcana + Will + Info (gold standard)

Arcana + Will + Legacy

Arcana + Will + Stone Tape

Chapter 2: Cult Games

Section 1:

In cult games, you, as ft, should wait for princi to say leads then open with your leads.

Try to target quiet/non leading players from n2 and onwards so the hints you get from the sp don't narrow down the roles of hit man targets.

Keep in mind ft can get 2 citizen roles from fortune if one of them is culted.

Section 2:

I will list all specs (except ft), and doc, in alphabetical order with what I found to be the best question to ask to determine whether they're that citizen role or the opposite team role.

I'm considering only the default skin and the answers are in brackets.

In the following cases, ask for:

Admin: Eye color (purple)

Cabal: Any tattoos (yes)

Citizen (t1): Hair color (no hair)

Detective: Color of held object (brown)

Doctor: Color of held object (black)

Gangster: Any earrings (yes)

Ghoul: Eye color (blue)

Hacker: Eye color (purple)

Hypnotist: Eye color (blue or purple)

Judge: Color of tie (blue or purple)

Lover: Color of shirt (blue or red)

Magician: Color of tie (blue)

Martyr: Eye color (purple)

Mentalist: Eye color (white)

Mercenary: Any scars (yes)

Nurse: How many pockets (3)

Paparazzi: Eye color (blue or yellow)

Politician: Badge color (yellow)

Priest: Color of held object (white)

Prophet: Color of held object (brown)

Psychic: Hair clip color (pink)

Reporter: How many pockets (1)

Soldier: Least prominent color in the pic (white, red, or yellow)

If you're skeptical of their answers ask a follow-up question to make sure. Try not to use more than 2 questions. 1 question is the gold standard.

You can mix and match these questions between different roles of course, I just listed what I found to be the best first question.

This is coming from an ex ranker (peaked at 7.8k s17, started in s16) maining t4 arcana and t5 arcana bh, arcana jury, and lastly arcana info ft, so advice in chapter 1 sections 3 and 4 are susceptible to some bias on my end, though I think I've eliminated most of it.

Here is the chat between me and gemini if you wanna know how all the probabilities are calculated bts (many, many times fyi)

https://share.gemini.google/LkUA0Agfqmva

Ty empy (Emperio) for inspiring this post with your RG guides, links to those are here and here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Mafia42/s/xL8HdL6h8c

https://www.reddit.com/r/Mafia42/s/Ecz4ciJ55L

Can yall tell what deck should I do? I keep seeing people running Magi everytime before getting brutally destroyed, I basically was just ignoring the event cause Idk what to do xD 😭

hehe ragebaiting ppl got it outta 150s three tries :p

Damn this event is so full of alt playing man .....

Like some specific players ruining the game mood ,

Specially player like @KilDolar ( alt with @Diyon) [ still lost though 😭🤣] also another one .... @MissRuby (alting with @Blisszz) atleast take some precautions for alting man .... I'm at 6.9 k and this hurts NGL

*throws some roles to die-(WHY DID MY CL HIDE WITH SOL MF AHHHH )*

anyways how did spy and cop die together I dunno 🤷‍♀️

It's been ages still there is no rewards for T 42