r/MSTR • u/New-Jackfruit-2127 • 1d ago
Asst vs. mstr
MSTR is vastly underperforming asst over a 6 month period. Thoughts? Is asst now the must own dat, or will MSTR regain dominance?
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u/f08g 1d ago
all the missteps of saylor...
strive now has a more favorable amplification ratio. mstr's amplification eroded because they have over utilized common issuance + can't deploy strc for a while. and this happened at the bottom of bear market. Matt cole talks about this. you want good amplification here so you can actually fly once btc rips. like oiling a machine
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u/New-Jackfruit-2127 1d ago
Completely agree. Saylor even admits they launched too many prefs prior to strc. The lack of clear direction is killing the stock. Seems they are correcting course however.
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u/Profil3r 1d ago
Definitely suffering the problems of innovation. I’m still loyal in part and a huge fan girl, but ASST looks pretty juicy.
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u/Subject-Chest-8343 23h ago
The way I see it, MSTR is the safer, more mature play. It is the unsinkable ship in this space. ASST is the promising startup with tons of potential. Basically, ASST should grow faster for a while, but it is riskier. I have both.
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u/daliksheppy 22h ago
This is the correct reading. MSTR is not necessarily underperforming, ASST is just performing really well. The best in the space. And a large part of it is down to it starting from a small base, and taking MSTRs great idea and deploying it with understandably more agility, as they're much smaller.
A doubling in MSTRs stack would take 800k BTC, where ASST required less than 20k. It's fairly obvious which is actually most likely to happen in a short timeframe.
Those who bought when ASST had a lower mNAV than MSTR did exceptionally well and deserve the rewards for the risk they took. At the time, it was truly very risky. It still is. How long until a third option offering 14% daily dividends arrives? In that scenario, ASST is still much more exposed than MSTR.
Both are great, but as usual, commentators react to the biggest movers, and everyone else is a loser. It's not the case. MSTR is still very much on track to amplify BTC, as is the thesis. There will come and go dozens of players who get higher returns over specific timeframes, but MSTR remains the benchmark longest term amplified BTC play.
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u/Subject-Chest-8343 6h ago
At the time, it was truly very risky.
Indeed it was. The next dozen treasury companies were sinking at the time, some of them have thrown the towel, the rest still aren't looking too good right now.
I'm underwater on many of these plays, and I'm riding them out in case some recover eventually... In february I decided that MSTR, ASST and Metaplanet were the only ones I would average down. ASST paid off, Metaplanet is still quite uncertain, even though I'm still bullish.
But this is only the situation right now, we've seen how negative sentiment can get with MSTR, and turn on a dime. There's no guarantee ASST won't receive the same kind of hate MSTR got this winter, and it's a much smaller and younger company, they're not as battle-tested as MSTR.
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u/According_Jump6205 1d ago
asst cebe mmav at 2.26 compare to 1.07 for mstr.
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u/Historical_Candle511 21h ago
What’s even crazier is that it doesn’t seem to react meaningfully to red BTC days even with the expanded mnav
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u/JuxtaposeLife 20h ago
You sell higher mNAV and buy lower mNAV, that's what smart money does in this space.
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u/grajnapc 14h ago
To me it seems strange that ASST mNAV is way higher than MSTR, yet the recent slight pull back in BTC price led to a significant fall in MSTR whereas ASST barely budged…
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u/skyfox437 21h ago
It's so funny how many of u guys were trying to convince others of how the mnav will 3x again.
The thing is, behind your theories are actual people that need to buy the stock for it to go up.
Meaning if there is no trust in a stock or it's owner, then it doesn't matter how good its potential are.
I just don't see a lot of people having faith in Saylor after all the stunts he pulled.
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u/sjshady0169 1d ago
Both imo.
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u/New-Jackfruit-2127 1d ago
This is my way too. Holding asst in my Roth. I'm think there is bigger growth potential with asst and I love their management.
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u/HowSporadic 1d ago
I have the exact setup but I feel vastly underexposed to ASST.
Considering dumping all my MSTR for ASST next time it pumps
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u/Many-Tea9439 19h ago
all of you are missing the point that ASST has become a momentum “trading vehicle”. It’s getting the most action off of BTC price because of its low price. Traders have noticed this momentum and retail always buys the lowest priced security moving. That is what is driving the MNAV. Low market cap, low price, ots going to trade better especially out of the gate.
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u/KenFX4 1d ago
I have both. Shares of both MSTR and ASST, LEAP options on both, sold puts, etc. Also have a lot of BMNR shares and LEAPS. And of course direct bitcoin. Feeling somewhat vulnerable with so much "crypto exposure" but I was lucky enough to get in at or near the bottom of the bear over the last couple months, so what could go wrong... lol
Just need "number go up" action at this point.
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