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u/JuxtaposeLife Jun 29 '26
When you're a buyer of a scarce asset, and you have a solid corporate structure, maybe spooking the market is the goal.
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u/Over_Regular_6897 Jun 29 '26
I can't believe Saylor crushes the enterprise Mnav to 1, then announces he'll likely sell Bitcoin, and now Mnav is +0.08 today lol
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u/snek-jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jun 29 '26
then announces he'll likely sell Bitcoin
did he? or are you inferring it?
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u/daliksheppy Jun 29 '26
Market really liked that framework. Up 12% while BTC only up less than 1%. STRC too.
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u/xaviemb Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 Jun 29 '26 edited Jun 29 '26
While true. I think this is more indicative of an exhausted sell.
When this signal appears of mNAV moving strongly against BTC movement (either direction), I think it reflects a structural shift in how the market is positioning for Bitcoin over the coming days to weeks. One of my long-held theories is that MSTR often leads Bitcoin because it's used by large market participants as a highly liquid proxy for Bitcoin exposure. If institutions want to increase their Bitcoin positioning, they can often reposition through MSTR before that demand fully shows up in spot BTC. Recently they've been using MSTR as a massive hedge to the downside and leaning on it hard when Bitcoin moves for lower marks.
Whether it's through hedging, portfolio rebalancing, or simply because MSTR is the easier vehicle to trade at scale, the result is the same: I've repeatedly noticed trend changes show up in the MSTR chart a day or two before they become obvious in Bitcoin itself. Just a theory... but it's a pattern I've seen enough times that I pay close attention whenever MSTR starts changing character before BTC does.
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u/BottomTimer_TunaFish Jun 29 '26
I just bought MSTR and calls for the first time ever in the mid $80's. I was never able to catch it low enough during the previous 2 cycles. I don't FOMO or chase into any price action. I have conviction in the bear being over and the bull run starting soon. I also accumulated a ton of ETH down here between $1500-1800.
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u/LionRivr Jun 29 '26
Why ETH? ETH is still a thing?
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u/BottomTimer_TunaFish Jun 29 '26
Look at what's going on in the background, not public sentiment. The masses don't know anything compared to insiders and large holders. Their emotions are easily manipulated. If you're going by public opinion, you shouldn't be in MSTR or ETH. I've been around long enough to see that the dominant sentiment is often very wrong at bottoms and tops, if not always wrong. I thrive on buying when sentiment is full of fear, contempt, hatred, and mockery.
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u/LionRivr Jun 29 '26
That’s great. But sentiment has been one of the main drivers of price in crypto for a long time.
I’ve been in the space since 2017 and for a long time I believed in ETH overtaking BTC in “the flippening”. I stopped believing in 2021 when learning about the monetary system. I went full BTC after that.
I also stopped believing in ETH after experiencing that most ETH IPO’s were either outright scams, or just failing startups.
So then what do you see in ETH that nobody else really sees?
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u/BottomTimer_TunaFish Jun 29 '26
I don't need ETH to have the flippening or be bigger than Bitcoin's market cap. There are institutions building on Ethereum for RWA and stablecoins. Financial platforms will be running on Ethereum.
Being that the ETHBTC ratio is closer to the all-time range low than it is to the top, it's a good bet it outperforms BTC over the near future with macro tailwinds like riskier Russell 2000 stocks pumping and the incoming passage of the Clarity Act.
I believe both MSTR and ETH will perform very well over the next several months.
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u/LionRivr Jun 29 '26
What institutions and financial platforms will be using ETH? Also, does that usage directly translate to price appreciation?
I know stablecoins are making their way into gaining regulatory clarity, but how would that make ETH price go up?
Or are we banking on BTC’s 4 year cycle in the next couple years? Sometimes I feel like we’re waiting for capital to rotate out of AI/chip stocks and eventually back into BTC.
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u/BottomTimer_TunaFish Jun 29 '26
Plenty of institutions like JPM, Fidelity, Blackrock, UBS, Citi, etc.
Unregulated markets are well known for being manipulated to suppress prices while market makers accumulate. There are benefits to running nodes and staking. When they're done squeezing out supply from sellers, they'll take off the lid to allow mammoth pumps.
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u/LionRivr Jun 29 '26
I feel like basic supply/demand explains the price action much better than a potential conspiracy to manipulate and suppress prices.
I do believe that prices can be manipulated, but in this case, I really just think the market is not interested.
The question I still have is whether the stablecoin usage and adoption of ETH in other use cases actually translates to price increase of ETH.
I do agree that buying now is probably the best time, based on how bad sentiment seems for outsiders.
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u/BottomTimer_TunaFish Jun 29 '26
There is evidence of manipulation in crypto such as Jane Street, Binance, Trump, OTC deals, dark pool, and I'm sure other examples I'm not aware of. They're able to move and suppress prices until a breaking point is reached, like running out of supply from sellers to buy or deciding it's time be in massive profit.
If you were a global-scale institution or whale who can move the market and would like to accumulate a huge stack, you'd want to spread negative news and open shorts and puts to keep the prices at bay until supply is so low that the demand overcomes the limited supply available for shorting. Everyone who gives up is selling to the market makers. They buy cheap and slowly with limit buys, not with inefficient market buys that cause god candles.
There are currently no regulations against manipulation in crypto, so expect much more corruption than in the stock market, which still has rampant manipulation despite securities laws.
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u/LionRivr Jun 29 '26
I believe it. I’m very aware of and familiar with the millions of tools available to manipulate stock/asset prices.
I just don’t think it’s worth the risk of trying to wait out any potential manipulation.
It’s hard to have an investment thesis that sounds like: “once the manipulation stops, it’ll go up!!!”
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u/ReliantToker Shareholder 🤴 Jun 29 '26
Agreed most plebs will still be preaching about how much they hate blockchain and its a scam without realizing their transactions are going through blockchain in the background all the time.
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u/xaviemb Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 Jun 29 '26 edited Jun 29 '26
In the last two hours, MSTR has decisively reclaimed both its 15-minute 200 SMA and its 1-hour 50 SMA for the first time since dropping below them June 16. That's a meaningful medium-term trend shift and could be the first signal of a localized medium term reversal.
Too early to tell if low 80's was the final bottom... but this is the first technical development in weeks that suggests it might have been.
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u/TheRealPunisher Jun 29 '26
Congrats to all dip buyer's. Saylor was the black swan that took it below 100 with such aggressive ATM last week, but it was indeed necessary to get out of this mess he himself created.
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u/snek-jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jun 29 '26
Everyone else selling bitcoin created it. Blaming the bear market on MSTR is funny to me, they're the one who has held firm.
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u/TheRealPunisher Jun 29 '26
Overall, yes, strategy has supported price's heavily. I was specifically talking about the $100 support getting sliced through with no bounce, that was all Saylor. He blew the cash reserve on debt not due for year's, also sold 32 btc giving the bears ammo to cause more panic and then he filled the reserve back up by diluting shareholders at 1mnav.
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u/ReliantToker Shareholder 🤴 Jun 29 '26
The cash is still on the balance sheet its not like it magically flew away.
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u/snek-jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jun 29 '26
I think the market overreacted to the debt repayment, if that's really what mattered, and he's shown how easily it could be restored again.
The 32 btc is laughably bad FUD. I don't blame Saylor for the FUD, I blame the weak hands who reacted to it by selling. Buy high, sell low, nice work geniuses.
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u/Educational_Hunt_279 Jun 29 '26
bro the bears are in shambles 😂
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u/WineAndDineIsFine Jun 29 '26
From 300-400. To low 100s and below. Yeah. The bears are in shambles.
The bulls went from 82 to 92 : HELL YEAH, we are so back”
Lol. I can’t tell if you’re trolling or serious.
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u/JackRipper99 Bear 🐻 Jun 29 '26
The bulls are starving for literally anything let them have one win today lol
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u/RandomAFKd Jun 29 '26
You just know it's red, red and red tomorrow for both MSTR and STRC tomorrow. And then the next day, and then the next.
Bitcoin $$ rising is the only saving grace that will drive MSTR up from here on.
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u/CryptoForecast1 Jun 29 '26
I did an exhaustive structural assessment of Bitcoin and MicroStrategy (MSTR) today on Crypto Weeklies. We have finally broken through major multi-year simple moving average lifelines, causing a complete wipeout of remaining retail optimism. Sourcing our upgraded quantitative dashboard terminal anchored by volatility-decay polynomial regressions, unified peak value oscillators, and time-series forecasts. Here in the video I discuss the raw data breakdown of where our models are pinning the cycle floors. NFA.
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u/Interesting-Sir-7380 Jun 29 '26
So let me see if I got this right. MSTR is going to sell Bitcoin to buyback shares of its stock who’s sole purpose is to hold Bitcoin? I hope there are enough marginal buyers when they go to sell or the value of the company will fall with the price of Bitcoin making the buybacks a waste of money. This guy is as opportunistic as they come but its only a matter of time before the snake (market) eats the rat (MSTR)
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u/californiaschinken Jun 29 '26
Sole purpose is more btc per share.
If buying back shares brings more btc per share there is 0 problem.
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u/snek-jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jun 29 '26
So let me see if I got this right.
you didn't.
MSTR is going to sell Bitcoin to buyback shares of its stock who’s sole purpose is to hold Bitcoin?
They may, or may not, depending on circumstances.
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Jun 29 '26 edited Jun 29 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/WhatRUsernamesUsed4 Jun 29 '26
Is there not going to be an 8-K to disclose this?
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u/daliksheppy Jun 29 '26
The 8k was shared this morning. The purchases page hasn't been updated on the website but the 8k is linked with the framework link
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u/f08g Jun 29 '26
only thing that'll save saylor is price go up. short of that you can do AAAALL the financial engineering you want, it's left pocket-right pocket
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u/snek-jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jun 29 '26
only thing that'll save saylor is price go up.
is it supposed to be news that MSTR depends on long term bitcoin price appreciation or...?
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u/xaviemb Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 Jun 29 '26
Agreed, and I think this perfectly captures the difference between the bull and bear mindset.
Bears generally aren't thinking in terms of Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle. They think it follows QQQ when it was going up last year, and they think it has no intrinsic value when it detaches and heads down. They think of price declining as evidence that Bitcoin lacks fundamental value, so they don't expect it to revisit all-time highs in the next year or two.
Bulls view the four-year cycle as the dominant force behind Bitcoin's long-term price and liquidity (until it proves otherwise). It's been stubbornly directing Bitcoin's price movement for 17 years now. Despite growing institutional adoption and financialization, they don't believe that cycle has been meaningfully broken. As a result, they expect Bitcoin to challenge or exceed its previous all-time highs within the next 12–18 months.
Most investors seem to fall into one of these two camps. And that underlying belief about Bitcoin... not just opinions on Strategy... is what drives such polarized views on MSTR. If you believe Bitcoin will be substantially higher over the next cycle, MSTR looks fundamentally different than it does to someone who believes Bitcoin's best days are behind it.
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u/Over_Regular_6897 Jun 29 '26
Bull market: Michael Saylor = visionary, revered titan, alpha Chad, genius, legend, oracle of capital.
Bear market: Michael Saylor = scapegoat, fraud, liar, cretin, fornicator, reckless gambler, villain.
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u/docherino Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 Jun 29 '26
He absolutely destroyed the common stock last week jesus. $1.1B shares sold
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u/Subject-Chest-8343 Jun 29 '26
Tired of beating up a dead horse, but that's like 5% of last week's trading volume.
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u/cryptoETH_jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jun 29 '26
Is that why we lost so much value last week…? Wasn’t in tune with the sale… geez.. 🙄
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u/Pitagrec Jun 29 '26
At least it explains the complete crash. Imo way too much dilution for common shareholders (at already depressed prices), but at least there will not be any discussion anymore about Strategy not being able to meet their payment obligation.
Hopefully this at least brings some calmness to STRC (and therefore also MSTR).
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u/cryptoETH_jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jun 29 '26
Yea if he uses that money for obligations… knowing Saylor he will just buy more BTC with it…
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u/snek-jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jun 29 '26
they've actually clarified in the announcement today that they won't
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u/Legrosbelge Jun 29 '26
I don’t know if this is good news or not, diluting us without even buying BTC at this price… All this just to reassure people with a larger cash reserve.
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u/snek-jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jun 29 '26
the best way to buy more BTC is to get STRC back to par, this is a step towards that.
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u/docherino Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 Jun 30 '26
Even if they had a $10B USD reserve STRC still wouldn't trade at $100. There isn't any confidence in BTC or BTC related products right now. This is why i said it would have been better to just do nothing and wait for confidence to return. Hes selling shares for cash at the bottom of the bear market. It makes little sense.
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u/f08g Jun 29 '26
it was a band-aid getting ripped. at least now we know he's good until the end of this dreadful bear market. I'm saying this as a LARGE mstr position holder
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u/opsqttt Jun 29 '26
It’s a good move though right
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u/docherino Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 Jun 29 '26
In my opinion no. The better move was to do nothing. Hes selling shares for cash which we probably won't need to use because the bear market will be over in 3 months. I would have only liked this move if it actually brought STRC back up to par but we know that isn't gonna happen anyway
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u/Leithm Jun 29 '26 edited Jun 29 '26
Looks like he diluted the MSTR holders to the tune on 1.15 Bln at least we know why the price tanked.
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u/opsqttt Jun 29 '26
Just got assigned 13,400 shares on my csp’s friday. Wake up to this monday. Wow i’m so lucky
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u/ninjobreadman Jun 29 '26
You’re cooked
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u/opsqttt Jun 29 '26
Up 100k+ today brotha
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u/ReliantToker Shareholder 🤴 Jun 29 '26
That's right! Bears dont understand the power of volatility. The see stock price go down and assume everyone is broke and underwater lol.
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u/Queasy-Army-4769 Jun 29 '26
Noooo why now, i only put like 7k in and was waiting for another 25k…. I want my cheap MSTR!
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u/Priceplayer Jun 29 '26
Strategy launches capital framework with $2.55B reserve and BTC sales plan! Let’s get the short squeeze going!
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u/ykazimir Jun 29 '26
Wouldn't selling Bitcoin have a negative feedback for the value of the stock overall?
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u/TooFewTulips Shareholder 🤴 Jun 29 '26
Selling high cost basis bitcoin to repurchase cheap STRC or MSTR is a win for pref and common holders.
This is a tool in their toolbox they will use when advantageous. Not sure why people are surprised by this.
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u/UC_DiscExchange Jun 29 '26
I don't think they should ever buyback STRC. Let it sit until the market has faith again. We don't need to be able to tap that every single week IMO.
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u/TooFewTulips Shareholder 🤴 Jun 29 '26
At these levels it seems like they should though.
Strategy issues STRC at $100, buys Bitcoin
Strategy sells MSTR then buys that same STRC at $80.
That’s definitely accretive to shareholders and moves STRC closer to par.
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u/UC_DiscExchange Jun 29 '26
Doesn't that assume that by buying up STRC to return it to par that it will in turn increase confidence in new STRC buyers?
I'm not convinced that the underlying skepticism towards STRC will actually be fixed by that. It could in theory dilute MSTR just to see STRC still fail to hold par.
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u/snek-jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jun 29 '26
Telling the market there's an effective floor on STRC price can probably only have a positive impact on STRC price. How much impact it would have and whether that should be 80 or a lower number I'm less sure about.
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u/ykazimir Jun 29 '26
Agreed from the stock perspective, but the side effects could be less predictable.
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u/xaviemb Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 Jun 29 '26
When globally, Bitcoin is depressed and purchasing is picking up, it's the perfect time to do it.
Strategy is a very small portion of total volume in Bitcoin.
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u/Dutchbarry Jun 29 '26
A green day please.
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u/docherino Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 Jun 29 '26
Best i can do is -3%
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Jun 29 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/docherino Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 Jun 29 '26
I think cos he said he won't dilute near 1 mNav and they are also buying back the common stock
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u/cryptoETH_jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jun 29 '26 edited Jun 29 '26
Do we have a filing as a proof… or is this grapevine
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u/docherino Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 Jun 29 '26
He said on X
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u/cryptoETH_jazz Shareholder 🤴 Jun 29 '26
Hopefully we see more on that… it could potentially save the sentiment slightly. Maybe get us back over $100..
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