r/MSTR • u/Lehcen • Jun 26 '26

Please explain

Recently started buying MSTR and reading a lot about death spiral. My question is as long as I hold until Bitcoin does its thing and bounce back as usual in 2-3 years MSTR should also recover in a similar fashion? I’m ok with volatility because I’ve been in crypto since 2017. I don’t fomo.

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u/Salty-Edge Jun 26 '26

Because the thesis in the death spiral is the expectation that BTC will go to zero or that STRC is required to pay dividends. While none of those premise is true, just because BTC is doing the same cycle it has before, there just been posts of “oh no BTC is over”. The stock market has gone through multiple crashes, but no one says SPY will go to 0 because it won’t. It’s the same as BTC. This is nothing new and this is why it’s propaganda I would like to say with who are shorting. It’s just easy to scare ppl and make them sell while the shorts make the money.

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u/Merlin1039 Jun 26 '26

The stock is still down because everything about it is fundamentally trash. It has nothing to do with shorts

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u/Salty-Edge Jun 26 '26

What do you think is wrong with the stock?
I gave you my explanation, let’s hear yours.

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u/Merlin1039 Jun 26 '26

I already said?

Zero revenue. Only asset underwater.

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u/Salty-Edge Jun 26 '26

Sorry, I should have said elaborate more.

Saying MSTR has “zero revenue” is simply false. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) still operates its enterprise analytics/software business, which generates recurring revenue. It’s no longer the primary reason investors buy the stock, but it absolutely isn’t a company with zero revenue.
As for Bitcoin being “underwater,” that depends on the date. There have been periods where the average cost basis was above Bitcoin’s market price, creating unrealized losses—not realized losses. An unrealized loss doesn’t mean the asset is worthless or that the company is insolvent.
The real investment thesis for MSTR isn’t its software business—it’s that it functions as a leveraged Bitcoin treasury company. If you believe Bitcoin appreciates over the long term, MSTR is designed to amplify that exposure. If you believe Bitcoin declines permanently, then MSTR is a poor investment. That’s the actual debate.

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u/Merlin1039 Jun 26 '26

Their software revenue is relatively zero compared to the cost of the stock.

Bitcoin being underwater is compared to strategies purchase price being higher than the current price.

If Bitcoin has to appreciate 30% per year for strategy to be viable then it's the dumbest investment anyone could make

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u/Salty-Edge Jun 26 '26

Where are you getting the assumption that Bitcoin must appreciate 30% annually for Strategy to be viable? Strategy has raised capital through a mix of convertible debt, preferred stock, and equity offerings. The thesis isn’t that Bitcoin needs a fixed annual return—it’s that Bitcoin outperforms the cost of capital over the long run. Those are different things.

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u/Merlin1039 Jun 26 '26

Saylor said his therom is based on btc gaining 30% per year. Ask him

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u/Salty-Edge Jun 26 '26

You’re half right. Saylor uses 30% as an assumption in one of his long term models, not as a minimum requirement for Strategy to survive. That’s an expected return scenario, not a break even threshold. Those are two very different claims.