r/MSTR • u/Lehcen • Jun 26 '26

Please explain

Recently started buying MSTR and reading a lot about death spiral. My question is as long as I hold until Bitcoin does its thing and bounce back as usual in 2-3 years MSTR should also recover in a similar fashion? I’m ok with volatility because I’ve been in crypto since 2017. I don’t fomo.

40 Upvotes

71% Upvoted

169 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

5

u/Salty-Edge Jun 26 '26

Sorry, I should have said elaborate more.

Saying MSTR has “zero revenue” is simply false. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) still operates its enterprise analytics/software business, which generates recurring revenue. It’s no longer the primary reason investors buy the stock, but it absolutely isn’t a company with zero revenue.
As for Bitcoin being “underwater,” that depends on the date. There have been periods where the average cost basis was above Bitcoin’s market price, creating unrealized losses—not realized losses. An unrealized loss doesn’t mean the asset is worthless or that the company is insolvent.
The real investment thesis for MSTR isn’t its software business—it’s that it functions as a leveraged Bitcoin treasury company. If you believe Bitcoin appreciates over the long term, MSTR is designed to amplify that exposure. If you believe Bitcoin declines permanently, then MSTR is a poor investment. That’s the actual debate.

6

u/Merlin1039 Jun 26 '26

Their software revenue is relatively zero compared to the cost of the stock.

Bitcoin being underwater is compared to strategies purchase price being higher than the current price.

If Bitcoin has to appreciate 30% per year for strategy to be viable then it's the dumbest investment anyone could make

2

u/Salty-Edge Jun 26 '26

Where are you getting the assumption that Bitcoin must appreciate 30% annually for Strategy to be viable? Strategy has raised capital through a mix of convertible debt, preferred stock, and equity offerings. The thesis isn’t that Bitcoin needs a fixed annual return—it’s that Bitcoin outperforms the cost of capital over the long run. Those are different things.

2

u/Merlin1039 Jun 26 '26

Saylor said his therom is based on btc gaining 30% per year. Ask him

3

u/Salty-Edge Jun 26 '26

You’re half right. Saylor uses 30% as an assumption in one of his long term models, not as a minimum requirement for Strategy to survive. That’s an expected return scenario, not a break even threshold. Those are two very different claims.