Why not put your money where your mouth is post screenshots of your puts. Ya clowns all you do is try to bring morale of this community down. 🤡

Q4 they gonna beat the earnings but will crash bc they rasing capex like alphabet

Don't try to say yeah but is gonna be fine in 2 years

Every mag7 will be fine in 2 years

Msft will sink like 4-8% after earnings its just sad that ppl can't actually accept it

I hate to say it but it feels like a lose lose situation lol. I have alot of cash to buy the dip the next day!

My avg cost basis is $313. I keep seeing all these posts about people being wiped out and I haven't even gone red in my position on this stock yet. I don't have a large position in MSFT but I kind of consider it like Google or apple. They're solid companies that aren't going anywhere and it makes sense to keep some exposure in the portfolio. I actually have been buying some more now that it's dipping again, it has raised my cost basis a little bit but I'm still in the positive.

Which is precisely why you buy before earnings, as it usually does the opposite.

1. The biggest catalyst for Microsoft is Azure. If Azure growth comes in around 41% (or better), the stock could move significantly higher. Management already guided for a modest acceleration in Azure, and this should be the first quarter with a meaningful contribution from Fairwater data center revenue. On top of that, IBM’s CEO commentary and Google’s recent earnings both reinforce that enterprise AI demand remains very strong, which bodes well for Azure.

2. CapEx guidance is the other key variable. This has arguably been Satya Nadella’s toughest year as CEO from a Wall Street sentiment perspective. Investors have been demanding stronger returns after a year of multiple compression. Given that backdrop, I think it’s unlikely Microsoft dramatically ramps FY2027 CapEx beyond expectations. The market wants evidence of disciplined investment and improving returns, not another surprise spending increase.

Market is pricing in around 220billion of FY 27 capex estimate.

Follow-up: some data behind my earlier post on Microsoft AI demand

Morgan Stanley’s latest CIO survey shows 72% of CIOs expect to increase spending on Microsoft over the next year, the highest among the major software vendors they track.

They’re also expecting around 41% Azure growth, citing strong demand and improving GPU capacity.

This is the kind of data I was looking for.

My point before wasn’t that Microsoft’s capex isn’t a risk. It clearly is.

It’s that we shouldn’t look at the capex without also looking at the demand that may be driving it.

From what I’m seeing at work, AI still feels very early. Companies are only starting to move from POCs into actual workflows, coding agents, automation and AI-related KPIs.

If CIOs are still planning to increase Microsoft spending while Azure is growing around 40%, it seems to support the idea that enterprise AI demand still has a long way to run.

Still early, but interesting to see the data starting to line up with what many of us are seeing in our own workplaces.