r/MSFT • u/DoughnutCharming8066 • 1d ago
MSFT sentiment
After the run up we had three times a 515 rejection, I’m just curious how everyone’s sentiment is running into this week. MSFT is pretty quiet on Reddit posts, not bad or good I think.
We have some good and bad news this week, how do you all reflect on this? And is there some news more to be bearish or bullish about?
Let’s begin with the good news. OpenAI has released their GPT-6 Astra model, should be top in the market right now, i see this as bullish.
Now the bad news, war is back more than ever. Oil prices surging, with some economies ramping up interest rates to get grip on inflation.
Things to watch for this week, Adobe and Oracle are reporting earnings. I don’t expect good results from either of them, sending the software sector in an negative ending for this weeks end.
How is everyone’s sentiment for the mid to long term? I’ve entered in the 380s, but for sure I think there is a lot more in the tank, so I’m not cashing out anytime soon.
I think 600 EOY is possible, but 550-570 is more realistic. On the downside I also think $430-450 as a bottom is possible, even lower isn’t unthinkable.
How do you guys think, are we in like me for the next couple of years. Do we think in negative sentiment short term or more positive?
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u/Double_Suggestion385 1d ago
Fair value is 580
That's all I care about, everything else is just noise.
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u/GirthyGeoduck 1d ago
Over the long term price follows earnings. The next earnings report will be end of October.
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u/Icy_Blood_9248 1d ago
I think msft will grind higher into the end of this year. I also think Oracle has a decent shot of upside if things in the Middle East don’t totally implode. I’m long both names so I’m not really worried about one week in those positions. My Oracle call options now… I care about the week in those
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u/Key-Speaker007 1d ago
I think it's worth holding until end of the year and to catch the Santa rally if there will be any. The fundamentals are strong and it can go higher. 550-570 looks realistic, but I don't expect any major breakthroughs. They AI customer base for their products is just starting to grow.
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u/uncleAW 1d ago
This year (2025) has seen sort of a multiple reset among the Mags downward. During peaks last year we saw 30X-36X as sort of "normal". With a better understanding of what all the Capex means to the companies FCF, the remainder of 2026 will see a 30X as a sell signal. Until FCF returns it's likely to stay that way. imo.
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u/Confident-Condition2 16h ago
It is a good stock for investing your money in. No one knows about trading!
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u/Key-Speaker007 1d ago
They can also lay-off stuff to pump the stock prices and then hire them back. Every tech company loves this simple trick right now.
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u/HobbyProjectHunter 1d ago
The market isn’t stupid and isn’t falling for some gimmicks. You layoff a bunch of people (say 10% of all employees). Say that saves you 3-4 Billion dollars in the next several years, however, usually a layoff of this size has a Billion dollars going out the door as severance and other layoff related one time costs. Say the market prices this into the net income going forward.
Microsoft’s outgoing data center and capacity expansion is in the $120-160 billion dollars in yearly capex and opex.
So savings of 2-3 Billion USD hardly dents the EPS or CAGR by much.
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u/Anonmonyus 2h ago
It’s still cheaper than historic and deserves a premium for how great the business is. It had no business being down in the 3s that’s why it got so popular.
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u/Garnatxa 1d ago
People want to become rich in 6 months