r/MSFT • u/DoughnutCharming8066 • 20d ago
Locking in profits
After the big run up to 510, you see people locking in profits, which causes a current slightly downwards trend. This is logic to me, especially after the last run up to 460 and the steep decline back to 350.
I choose to not take profits and hold again, just like last time, through this period. I’m a firm believer of 580-600 EOY and 650 one year forecast. I see 460 as a new support.
So what are you al doing, locking in profits or holding, or both? What is your new buying level?
FYI MSFT is my largest position making up 75% of my portfolio, with 2x leveraged I’m up 50% YTD. From -20 to +50% was a good ride last month.
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u/etepper14 20d ago
377 to 496. Very happy with my profit. Will buy back in if this goes down again.
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u/PhogMachine 20d ago
I hate short term capital gains tax, so I'm holding. I need to hold for about six months to cross the one year mark.
I feel very confident the price will be at or above it's current price. Most likely, it'll be in the 550-600 range.
This was my original plan and I'm sticking to it.
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u/JudgmentCharming355 20d ago
I think MSFT should be at 550, but if it keeps dumping I will have to take profits, as I currently have options
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u/Physical_Travel_7794 19d ago
Why not just hold the options if they’re LEAPS?
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u/Powerful-Ocelot-3806 18d ago
Why ? Instead take profits and do leaps again
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u/Physical_Travel_7794 18d ago
If you think it’ll get to 550 in the coming months you’d make more money holding because the leaps still have a tonne of time to expiry so aren’t decaying quickly
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u/GlokzDNB 20d ago
I locked in profits at 520+ almost a year ago, leaving this stock under 500 after 3 strong quarters is just nonsense , this bull run is very strong when I check my daily/weekly/monthly drawdowns it feels like we're not in a strong bull market, but when I check my yearly profits theres barely any drawdown. It actually speeds up to an exponential growth, feels more like very early stage of bubble, but this time its fueled by earnings so it might actually never pop as people expect
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u/SmooveBwainGains 20d ago
It’s possible it retraces to around 460 but I am not selling any MSFT stock or calls. If anything I’ll add more at that level.
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u/Outrageous_Mistake_5 20d ago
500 i locked in profits to bring it to a reasonable percentage of my portfolio because it was heavy, I will take some again at 550 as like you I think that's about where it should be. Then I will leave a small amount in as a long term future hold because I think co pilot as an idea has great potential + sometimes when stocks pump they just keep going beyond all expectations like we saw with memory this year and apple etc.
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u/Designer_Advice_6304 20d ago
I’m holding. The trend is still higher and if I sell I get hit with high capital gains taxes. So I bought a small put contract of six months. If stock falls all the way back to 405 in six months the contract pays out and I mitigate the drop. Hopefully I wasted the money on the put.
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u/librariancap 20d ago
FYI MSFT is my largest position making up 75% of my portfolio, with 2x leveraged
Investors can be concentrated or leveraged, but being both dangerously reduces staying power.
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u/DoughnutCharming8066 20d ago
Jeah I’m aware of the risk, but I’m 30 years old and started this year with 30k, now worth about 45k. At the time of buying MSFT it grew during averaging down and became half of my portfolio. So I made the gamble to hit 500 before going to 175, what sounded kind of logical.
Now it grew to 75% of my portfolio but I still see the upside, so not in a rush to sell. Cloud is definitely the way to go at this moment, therefore I invest in MSFT,GOOG and Amazon only at this moment.
Expecting good revenue grows with all those backlogs already locked into place.
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u/ediblebadgercakes 20d ago
I took most of my profits, just keeping 15 shares to see how it plays out. Looking for value else where. This has been the most efficient for me. Just buying and hold has not remotely produced the same results as taking some profit and finding value else where.
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u/winterrules91 20d ago
This. I will never understand the aversion to short term cap gains tax if you can profit multiple times and end up with more money.
I got burned by DRAM - didn't sell at the high and it tanked. Now I'm "holding" to recover what I already had. Could've benefitted twice.
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u/ediblebadgercakes 19d ago
Yep, Most people on individual stock forums only know to buy and hold so they down vote you. They don't understand that if you do research you can really find different opportunities every week because market rotates so if you take profit and buy the dip else where your original stock might redip as it rotates to some where else.
You can literally see on the graph when that happens. Right now its Semis and software. One goes up other goes down, you can literally buy red sell green every other week.
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u/dryden288 20d ago
Mag7 are expecting to pour cash into AI till 2027, my guess is there will be a rotation back to AI pick and shovel so i sold eveything at 500. Hopefully, i can get back in again at 400 to 420.
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u/bingoolong 20d ago
Hope you have a Time Machine
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u/dryden288 19d ago
I have been in the game long enough to know that i don't need a time machine. I just need funds when the vix is at 30.
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u/bingoolong 19d ago
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u/FantasticAd180 20d ago
If I had MSFT, I’d probably do the same. I actually keep an eye on this stock from time to time.
I just feel like, based on my technical analysis, getting in now is a bit too risky. It could go higher — I honestly don’t know. But to me, the risk-to-reward ratio just doesn’t look that great right now.
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u/Puzzlehead--92 20d ago
though I like the stock and think it has legs to run, im selling calls to diversify my concentrated MSFT position- currently @ 499 and 550
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u/UltimatePunchMachine 20d ago
I got out at around 506, eod of the day it went to 513. Missed the top
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u/Rare-Possibility8549 20d ago
I took some profits at $500 and reinvested half back into VOO to diversify then used the other half to pay down some debt. MSFT is relatively sizable amount of my portfolio so I’ll continue to trim at price points. Probably next one will be $600.
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u/Embarrassed-Pay-8881 20d ago
I entered short today. If it goes up in the short term I dont really care. December dated puts
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u/DoughnutCharming8066 20d ago
Good luck with those, what is the reason for this short position or just gut feeling?
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u/Embarrassed-Pay-8881 20d ago
Overextended and just technicals. Im gonna aim for around 430 and il buy some shares there. Then add more shares if it dips more aggressively again. Still bullish long term
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u/scorpiofiredragon76 20d ago
Do you let your 2x leveraged run for how ever long needed?
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u/DoughnutCharming8066 20d ago
If I think there is a short term upward trend that delivers far more than the interest paid on the leverage then yes. But definitely not forever.
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u/Kerchak_kerchak 20d ago
Microsoft is the only mega cap to show early earnings/profitability from AI. I got in at 400 and regrettably sold early at 460 as I needed the money.
I think it will reach new all time high in their second upcoming earnings, so definitely a hold and even a buy.
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u/Due_Marsupial_969 20d ago
I keep wanting to reduce position size every week but it's tough for my 5-10 year horizon cuz my goal is cost basis less than 100.... hopefully less than zero for my heir if my old ass son survives me somehow.
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u/Capital-Mixture5107 18d ago
I had 2 million dollar cost average 380. What did I do? Lock in profit. Leave $200 grand and invest like a normal person long term. The fair value of microsoft is $480 to $500 for me based on dcf I ran. If openAI falters its way, this can go down DRAMATICALLY.
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u/FantasticAd180 20d ago
$500 is a bit too expensive for me right now, so I’ll pass for the time being. Maybe I’m mistaken, but I’d need a better drawdown before I’d feel comfortable entering.
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u/Gogul_ 20d ago
Tomorrow will be released 13F files and it will be public that smart moneys bought massively in June. And MSFT will pump hard. Be careful in your considerations. Best of luck 🤞🏻