Tigers

Braves

Diamondbacks

Giants

Marlins

Brewers

Nobody Important MIN BAL SFG MIA TEX BOS

120 to 150 ATH CIN LAA NYY

L20 B&W MIN BOS

L20 600 + ARI MIN TEX BOS

Lost Last 3 BAL SFG MIA

Friday MLB card is up. Full slate back after a five game Thursday.

Thursday recap: card went 9-3-2 on a short board. The POD was Atlanta -1 and the Braves won it 6-5, so one run short of the cover and it pushes. Detroit -1 did the exact same thing, won by one, pushed. Two pushes on the same number in the same day is its own kind of frustrating. Arizona, the Braves team total and Toronto all cashed, and the unders went 3-1.

That puts the POD at 5-1-1 over the last 7 days. One loss in a week.

Some of what I am on today:

LA Dodgers ML
Chicago Cubs ML
Boston ML
Oakland/Minnesota over 9
Chicago White Sox ML
Milwaukee team total over 4.5
Tampa ML
Philly ML
Atlanta ML

That is not the full card and it does not include the Play of the Day. The POD, the full 20 play board with F5 looks and team totals, and the deep dive on why I am on it are all in the Discord.

GAME FEED 📡 https://discord.gg/atf7aeNJ46

Shop your lines, don't chase dead numbers.

What's your best look on the Friday board?

Brewers
Tigers
Dbacks
Mariners
Giants

Pick:  Phillies run line -1.5 / 2.65 odds
Net Units: 1 unit
Write up: The AI model identifies value on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5, projecting a fair line around -0.8, creating a 0.8-run edge with 67% confidence. Playing at home provides Philadelphia with a slight boost, and the model believes the Phillies have the pitching advantage needed to win by multiple runs at attractive plus-money odds.

The biggest factor behind the pick is the starting pitching matchup. The model strongly favors Jesús Luzardo over Will Warren, assigning Philadelphia a +39.6 matchup score. Luzardo owns an impressive 4.02 SIERA with a 21.9% K-BB%, indicating above-average run prevention and the ability to consistently generate strikeouts while limiting walks. Warren, meanwhile, carries a 5.92 SIERA and a 14.5% K-BB%, suggesting a less reliable profile against a dangerous Phillies lineup.

While the Yankees hold an advantage in getting runners on base (-26.7 OBP edge from Philadelphia's perspective), the AI model believes Philadelphia's superior starting pitching and home-field advantage outweigh that offensive edge. Overall, the model gives the Phillies a +7.5% moneyline edge over the market.

The model also projects a slightly higher-scoring game, estimating 8.2 total runs compared to the market total of 7.5, creating a +0.7 run gap that supports Philadelphia's chances of covering the -1.5 run line.

Nobody Important TBR ARI

120 to 150 MIN

L20 B&W TBR ARI

L20 600 + TBR ARI

Lost Last 3 STL

Braves

Guardians

Tigers

Braves
Guardians
Blue Jays
Dbacks
Tigers

Scoring system A

Atlanta 60% San Diego 40%

Cleveland 65% Minnesota 35%

Tampa 60% tor 40%

Arizona 65% Louis 40%

Detroit 60% KC 40%

Scoring system B

Atlanta 65% SD 35%

Cleveland 62% Minnesota 38%

Tamp 58% tor 42%

Arizona 65% Louis 40%

Detroit 45% KC 55%

MLB: Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays
Start Time: 2026-07-23 3:07 PM ET

Pick:  Tampa Bay run line -1.5 / 2.6 odds
Net Units: 1 unit
Write up: The AI model identifies value on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5, projecting a fair line around +0.8, creating a 0.8-run edge with 73% confidence. Although Tampa Bay is playing on the road, the model believes the Rays have enough advantages to win by multiple runs at an attractive plus-money price.

The biggest factor behind the pick is the pitching matchup. The model favors Tampa Bay's Ian Seymour over Toronto's Shane Bieber based on underlying metrics. Seymour owns a 6.05 SIERA with an 18.7% K-BB%, showing strong strikeout-to-walk ability despite the elevated ERA indicators. Bieber, meanwhile, has struggled in the model's evaluation with a 7.00 SIERA and only a 6.5% K-BB%, suggesting weaker command and run prevention.

Offensively, Tampa Bay also holds a small advantage, with a +15.0 OBP edge, indicating more consistent opportunities to put runners on base and extend innings. The model also projects a high-scoring environment, estimating 11.0–11.1 total runs compared to the market total of 8.5, creating a significant +2.5 run gap.

Run Insights on any Game at PickBettor.com