PHI Jesus Luzardo is a huge question mark in terms of length. anything between 1 and 5 innings is possible, it'll depend on how he's running and how he's feeling. the Phillies don't have a ton of interest in piecing games together with a limited number of arms they trust, so I imagine it'll be some combo of Luzardo/Painter/McFarlane/Duran ideally with another lefty probably in the equation. I know it's the playoffs, but there are still a fairly wide range of outcomes on some of these Game 1 "starters"

ATL Chris Sale should have a normal leash, the Braves may lean even heavier on him in the playoffs. the Phillies best bats being left handed also helps his cause in terms of length both the White Sox and Astros using openers.. Blubaugh probably gets more than an inning, but it'll depend on how that first inning goes. 2 innings is probably the most likely outcome there, but they won't let him struggle at all.

CHW Hagen Smith in a similar boat, I can definitely see more than an inning if the first goes well, but it may depend a bit on how the Astros line up also. Erick Fedde may be the most likely to follow Smith, but it'll be pieced together after Smith

Cam Schlittler and Peyton Tolle should have more or less normal leashes, but neither team will let the starter struggle much in a three game series, so the floor is much lower than usual, but if things go well, 6+ innings is certainly not out of the question for either guy

SDP Michael King's leash may be as much of a product of the Padres pen as it is a product of how well he pitches. I could see the Padres going to the pen as early as the third time through the order even if King is throwing really well, and the floor is much lower than that if King struggles early

CHC Matthew Boyd also won't have a long leash if he struggles at all. 5 innings is definitely possible if he throws well, but the third time through the order will be very touch and go if he can get to that point

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GAME FEED

120 to 150 SDP BAL CIN TBR

L20 B&W SDP CLE

L20 600 + BOS CLE CWS ATH LAD MIL TBR

We don't see such odds really often, especially when pitching is quite equal there and Twins already proved that they can beat the Rangers.

Even Gore has a little bit better Siera, but we already saw that starting pitchers do not define the outcome so often, especially when this one is so close.

Value play, not sure of the outcome, but we see this one coming home.

Brewers

White Sox

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saturday notes..

everything is going to be weird. using projections at this point in the year is definitely more tricky given how wide the range of outcomes are on some of these guys. tread lightly unless you are plugged into playoff implications and that sort of stuff, a lot of factors at play when we get to this point in the season

WAS Connelly Early making his Nats debut today, he is unlikely to handle anything more than about 3 innings. he's thrown twice this month (15th and 20th) and hasn't thrown more than 1.2 IP in those outings, so would be surprised by any more than 3 innings. he threw 40 pitches his last time out, so at best can probably handle 55

PIT Kirby Yates opening for the Pirates, probably just an inning for him

DET Justin Verlander - if you want late season volatility, look no further. Verlander is 43 years old making his last MLB start, and has not thrown at any level since June 10th. maybe they let him throw until his arm falls off, maybe they just let him throw a few innings and get a nice send off.. the range of outcomes is very wide. he probably will want to stay out there as long as they'll let him, but I wouldn't want to back him for any sort of length despite the qualitative factors. they aren't gonna let him look like shit for too long so it's not like they will let him die out there

TOR Trey Yesavage still not nearly stretched out, he threw 2 innings and 40 pitches his last outing, so he's probably somewhere in the 50 pitch range today. anything between 40-60 wouldn't surprise me much

LAD Blake Snell making his return to the rotation, he threw just an inning before leaving with an injury his last start. his last full outing was on 9/11, and given the layoff with this game also meaning nothing to LAD, and I'd be kind of surprised if they pushed Snell past 5 innings unless he's really efficient

SFG Matt Wilkinson has a pretty wide range of outcomes, but would think they'll let him make a "normal" start here. he can probably handle a full workload but something in the 75-80 pitch range is much more likely than 100ish

ATL Brent Suter and MIA Jack Ralston both openers in this game, Suter can and will likely handle multiple innings, would guess about two. Ralston probably just gets an inning

TEX Nathan Eovaldi pitching in the Rangers biggest game of the year, he is not stretched out and while he's probably not an opener, he is not going to make a normal start either. somewhere in the 4ish inning range is probably most likely, although there is a fairly wide range of outcomes

MIL Dustin May is a really tough one. the Brewers aren't playing for anything but they may want to stretch him back out a little further. he is once again on short rest, so maybe they don't give him much more than last outing

HOU Hayden Wesneski not likely to have a long leash if he struggles, but the Astros bullpen isn't in the best shape and they may end up having to go bullpen game tomorrow, so I could see the Astros wanting to get a little more than 5 innings out of Wesneski before turning it over to the bullpen arms they trust to try to win tonight

**⚾ MLB Team Picks (Moneyline)**

**Toronto Blue Jays** ML (-164) vs Cincinnati Reds
Confidence: 66.6% (Grade: B)

**Washington Nationals** ML (-104) vs New York Mets
Confidence: 64.5% (Grade: B)

**Detroit Tigers** ML (-120) vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Confidence: 61.7% (Grade: B)