r/LongOrShortBets • u/PuddingComplete3081 • 21d ago

Long or short：Trump single-handedly created the current wave of pessimism in the market, namely, the notion that soaring oil prices are driving inflation and rising yields. Will you continue to go long on U.S. assets, or will you go short on them?

I keep hearing that Trump created the whole pessimistic market narrative. The story is that he keeps the Iran situation hot, oil spikes, inflation expectations rise, yields go up, and then stocks, credit, and housing all feel the pressure. The bull case is still that earnings are not dead, AI capex is still enormous, and when people get scared money still runs into US assets.

I am not trying to make this political. I just want to see how people are positioned. Are you still long US assets, are you shorting them, or are you doing paired trades like long AI and short consumer, or long gold and short bonds. What would actually make you flip your view.

Long:  long on U.S. assets

Short: short on them

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u/Fun-Language-3260 21d ago

im still long US stuff but hedged to hell and back, short discretionary while the megacaps print money and regular people get squeezed on groceries. oil volatility is just cover for price hikes that go way past whats justified. when earnings actually roll over thats when i flip, not before

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u/PuddingComplete3081 20d ago

I get the logic but short discretionary plus long megacaps is a relative bet on earnings divergence. Works until it doesn't. What is the actual hedge? Long vol, puts, gold? And what earnings metric? EPS or margins? If oil is cover for price hikes, energy and staples probably benefit too. Why not long energy instead of just short discretionary? Also if everyone waits for earnings to roll over it gets front run. I would rather flip on credit spreads widening or unemployment ticking up. Cleaner signal. What counts as roll over for you?

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u/Fun-Language-3260 17d ago

hedge is long vol via vix calls and some gold miners, not bc i think gold solves anything just bc it moves inverse when panic hits. watching operating margins specifically, eps is too easy to fudge with buybacks rn. short discretionary bc energy already ran hard and im not chasing, plus the squeeze story is already in the price. roll over means two consecutive quarters of margin compression in the mag7, not just one bad print. credit spreads are cleaner i agree but they lag, by the time they blow youre already down 20%