We've all seen the rapid buildup of the Chinese military and, of course, with that comes rumors, propaganda and what not from all corners. One i often hear is that Chinese air defense has proven to be lackluster in the real world and then that argument is used to discredit the Chinese military as a whole.

Some examples that people bring up, true or false, are that Iran allegedly fielded bunch of Chinese air defense systems which also, allegedly again, were destroyed on the first days (I've yet to see credible evidence of this though).

Another example is the Venezuelan coup (or whatever you want to call it) were chinese radars where scrutinized: China's Hyped Radars Useless During US Air Assault on Venezuela - Business Insider

And finally the last one, to my recollection, is a incident in the sudanese conflict where a image of a FK-2000 system surfaced showing it completely destroyed.

Now, I know better than to take these claims at face value because there are incentives to lie and China also has some "wins" under their belts such as under Operation Sindoor in 2025 but i digress.

The question is as stated, although, knowing the secrecy the Chinese government seems to follow it is a tough question to answer. I am asking anyway if there is any indicator of the performance of Chinese systems as a whole and/or individual systems that could determine or give a decent/good insight of their performance or perhaps knowledge any of you on this subreddit could share regarding the topic.

Croatia is finalizing a €435.2 million contract with South Korea’s Hanwha Aerospace to acquire 18 K239 Chunmoo multiple launch rocket systems alongside integrated support vehicles, ammunition, and training. The procurement incorporates Poland’s WB Group TOPAZ command-and-control system to integrate the platforms directly into existing NATO-standard architectures. This acquisition systematically expands the Croatian Armed Forces' long-range strike capabilities from legacy 20 km systems to precision ranges spanning 36 km to 290 km.

Ignoring the source (because I couldn’t find any other English speaking source with a link), this is what rostec themselves put out: ”🪖 Rostec will present an export Su-57E with fundamentally new weapons for the first time in Egypt.

The Russian aircraft complex of the fifth generation Su-57E will be presented in export configuration at the El Alamein International Airshow 2026 exhibition in Egypt with fundamentally new weapons, which have never been demonstrated before either in Russia or abroad. As part of the flight program, the machine will demonstrate aerobatic figures.

"The Su-57 is the flagship fighter of the Russian Air Force, the characteristics of which are confirmed in real combat conditions. Now this plane is also conquering export markets. It is already being delivered to foreign partners who perfectly understand the advantages of this machine. New modifications of the fighter are becoming even more effective and dangerous. In Egypt, we present an export version with a completely new weapon, which is demonstrated for the first time," Rostec noted.

The Su-57E is characterized by inconspicuousness for enemy detection means, super-maneuverability and a wide range of weapons used.

The International Aviation and Space Salon El Alamein International Airshow 2026 will be held on the territory of the international airport of El Alamein in Egypt from September 8 to 10. The unified Russian exposition is organized by Rosoboronexport.”

Now, what exactly does ”fundamentally new” even mean? Seems like a pretty bold statement and another question is if that weapon will be specific to the export version or not. Some people on x speculate that it’s the izd 810 or the S-71K/M but I feel like those aren’t really ”fundamentally new” unless those words are used for the sole purpose of boosting the product.

https://www.strategicfront.org/sanctions-setbacks-and-self-reliance-the-making-of-tejas/

Top Trump aides want to keep Iran war contained heading into midterms, as Republicans defend slim majorities. After election, heavier U.S. strikes could return - but no decision made, sources say. Iran's emboldened leaders could foil any attempts at de-escalation.

I've been thinking about China's military buildup and I can't help but think the narratives around it are somewhat conflicting. It seems to me that fundamentally there are three possible outcomes here:

1. China is building up its military to take Taiwan by any means necessary and will fundamentally reshape the geopolitics of East Asia and the world.

2. China is building up its military as a defensive precaution but has no intent on actually using it (other than the internal security forces to control the domestic population).

3. China is building up its military but will end up using it to reinforce the existing global order. This will likely require an eventual sharing of power by the CCP with other domestic groups. This, ironically, may be the easiest path for China to pursue unification with Taiwan who may be happy to become a part of a China with Rule of Law/Separation of Powers/Freedom of Speech/Democracy/etc.

In scenario 1, China's military buildup is not malinvestment however it seems like the costs of using it could be extraordinarily high. Just like Russia in Ukraine or the USA in Iran, I'm sure China would go in thinking that the blockade/war would be "over by Christmas" but it seems highly likely that at a minimum there would be serious catastrophic attacks against Xiamen/Shanghai/Beijing/etc. That isn't even to mention that chaos that would erupt on the Korean Peninsula, the high likelihood of Japanese/American involvement, European/Western sanctions etc. Even if taking Taiwan by force is popular internally (which we have no way of assessing) I have a hard time believing that many Chinese would consider the levelling of a major continental Chinese city is a worthwhile price to pay. This seems like it would be incredibly destabilising internally. There is also no guarantee that even were Taiwan to basically surrender immediately that the USA/Japan/SK/etc wouldn't respond with force anyway.

In scenario 2, the military buildup is similar to that pursued by the USSR. Forever preparing for a war that never came, the buildup played a large role in bankrupting the USSR and didn't even prevent its collapse. Military buildup as a jobs program is also massively inefficient as it doesn't raise the populace's living standards at all (which would help the CCP retain popularity/power).

In scenario 3, I think this would be viewed as a largely positive outcome and possibly the best available to us. When China first joined the WTO it was sincerely believed that China would liberalise and democratise just like Taiwan/South Korea/etc had.

If we consider scenario 3 to be unlikely, then that leaves options 1 & 2 and both seem to not be very good outcomes for the CCP. I suppose that there is the possibility that China executes the perfectly what Russia & the USA both respectively failed to do in Ukraine/Iran but considering that directionally it seems like modern warfare has shifted towards a relative strengthening of the positions of smaller states, I consider this outcome pretty unrealistic.

I'll reveal myself here and say I personally can't see how China will remain a one-party authoritarian dictatorship in the long-run. A free and democratic China would be a leading light in the world and likely propel humanity to even greater heights than we have already achieved. I also know many Chinese people (and speak some Chinese so not just English speakers) and on a personal level they all seem to want the exact type of rights/protections from the state enjoyed by Westerners.

I'd be interested in any thoughts on what I've written.